WPAC: - MAWAR - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: - MAWAR - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:53 am

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WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM EAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR FIXES FROM RJTD AND THE SATELLITE FIX FROM
PGTW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 030210Z MHS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OFFSET BY
HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS MAWAR IS SLOWLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ABOUT 80 NM EAST OF HONG KONG PRIOR TO
TAU 12. HIGH VWS WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TS 18W WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST CHINA, FULLY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. THE TRACK WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE NORTHWARD AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER, THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER LANDFALL, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: - MAWAR - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:54 am

TPPN10 PGTW 030905

A. TROPICAL STORM 18W (MAWAR)

B. 03/0900Z

C. 22.60N

D. 116.28E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 21NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS A 2.5 WHILE PT YIELDS
A 3.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: - MAWAR - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:05 am

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Re: WPAC: - MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#44 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:09 am

According to the HKO in their 10:45pm HKT bulletin, (Severe)Tropical Storm Mawar has made landfall near Shanwei city, Guangdong this Sunday night local time...

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