ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:25 am

AL, 94, 2017090412, , BEST, 0, 96N, 354W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, SPAWNINVEST, al732017 to al942017,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119089
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#2 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:27 am

There we go, invest 94, I have a feeling this one won't cause major issues to anyone, but may produce some good ACE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#3 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:32 am

Yeah, encouraged by what the 06Z run showed earlier. Jose forms, but hopefully he will stay harmlessly out to sea!!!
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:12 am

It seems the trough that finally picks up Irma - whenever it does - will grab this system as well. But we have to be vigilant.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#5 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:32 pm

2PM:

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:02 pm

18z Best Track:

Location: 9.3°N 36.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#7 Postby Hurrilurker » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:28 pm

It looks like it will get lifted quickly north. However, there is time for a ridge to build back in and push it west towards CONUS after the current forecast period.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:40 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:It looks like it will get lifted quickly north. However, there is time for a ridge to build back in and push it west towards CONUS after the current forecast period.


Good post. At the time of my.post earlier today, the 6Z GFS gave every impression that the trough was going to grab potential Jose . But, I came back on this thread to acknowledge that the models are building the ridge back and shoving potential Jose back toward the U.S. within the next two weeks.

So, Just when we thought we could take a breather after Harvey and Irma, we may be dealing with Jose down the road!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#9 Postby Shuriken » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:45 pm

Models are notoriously awful predicting the fates of Invests (and look how far west Irma has been shunted run after run after run; they'll be running her across the Gulf into Texas at this rate of shift).

If Jose winds up and parallel/tandem-tracks with Irma (which they often do this time of year when a paired couplet gets going mid-Atlantic), he'll mow through the Caribbean as a probably very strong hurricane.

The one inhibiting factor which often gums up couplet storms is proximity, but these two are far enough apart not to shear each other or rob inflow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#10 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:30 pm

It would be cool if we had two simultaneous majors with this and Irma. When's the last time that happened?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#11 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:37 pm

Kazmit wrote:It would be cool if we had two simultaneous majors with this and Irma. When's the last time that happened?


Igor and Julia on Sep 15, 2010.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:39 pm

8 PM TWO:


A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:01 pm

00z best track.

AL, 94, 2017090500, , BEST, 0, 93N, 372W, 25, 1010, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#14 Postby NotSparta » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:42 pm

Image

Is it me, or does this system look almost like an Invest in the West Pacific?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:50 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
734 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017


A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1010 mb
low located near 09N36W. The wave axis extends from 15N36W to the
low to 04N36W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is a low amplitude
wave. SSMI TPW imagery shows the wave is in a very moist area. The
wave is also within a distinct 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate
convection is over a large area from 08N to 12N between 34W and
39W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development, and there is a medium chance for tropical
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:52 pm

I Wonder what AricDunn will think about this twave chances to develop? :oops:
Any thoughts about this one? Thanks. :) We all know that you have best and objective prognostics related to canes...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#17 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:24 pm

Imo with the strong model agreement on this one, we should see Jose within 24 to 36 hours. It looks really impressive too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#18 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:13 am

Image

Could be a depression already, but won't know for sure until we get visible imagery as the western circulation was cut off. Could be upgraded directly to TS by then.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:25 am

I'd be very surprised if this isn't already a depression or storm. The gfs 00z also took it to at least 70 west in the long term.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#20 Postby bob rulz » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:50 am

It's been a long time since we've seen this much activity in the MDR. And I was noticing on satellite that there's another vigorous TW moving off the coast of Africa soon, though I have no idea if there's any model support for development from that one.
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