ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#741 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:20 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

This is NOT an official BT, but here is what I would have for Jose. Biggest changes are pre-Recon (upwards).
(Revised December 2017 for additional data analyzed)

AL122017, JOSE, 73,
20170905, 0000, , TD, 11.1N, 37.2W, 30, 1015,
20170905, 0600, , TD, 11.6N, 37.9W, 30, 1014,
20170905, 1200, , TS, 12.1N, 38.6W, 35, 1013,
20170905, 1800, , TS, 12.3N, 39.8W, 45, 1008,
20170906, 0000, , TS, 12.3N, 41.1W, 50, 1006,
20170906, 0600, , TS, 12.5N, 42.4W, 50, 1005,
20170906, 1200, , TS, 13.0N, 43.9W, 55, 1002,
20170906, 1800, , TS, 13.6N, 45.2W, 60, 1000,
20170907, 0000, , HU, 14.2N, 46.7W, 70, 995,
20170907, 0600, , HU, 14.5N, 48.3W, 80, 988,
20170907, 1200, , HU, 14.8N, 49.8W, 95, 976,
20170907, 1800, , HU, 15.3N, 51.6W, 110, 964,
20170908, 0000, , HU, 15.5N, 53.2W, 120, 956,
20170908, 0600, , HU, 15.9N, 54.7W, 130, 948,
20170908, 1200, , HU, 16.1N, 56.4W, 140, 943,
20170908, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 57.8W, 145, 935, Maximum wind and minimum pressure
20170909, 0000, , HU, 16.7N, 58.8W, 140, 937,
20170909, 0600, , HU, 17.2N, 59.8W, 130, 940,
20170909, 1200, , HU, 17.9N, 60.7W, 125, 944,
20170909, 1800, , HU, 18.8N, 61.9W, 120, 945,
20170910, 0000, , HU, 19.4N, 62.9W, 115, 945,
20170910, 0600, , HU, 20.4N, 64.0W, 120, 942,
20170910, 1200, , HU, 21.2N, 65.3W, 110, 950,
20170910, 1800, , HU, 22.3N, 66.4W, 100, 961,
20170911, 0000, , HU, 23.3N, 67.6W, 95, 965,
20170911, 0600, , HU, 24.2N, 68.5W, 90, 970,
20170911, 1200, , HU, 25.2N, 69.2W, 85, 972,
20170911, 1800, , HU, 26.1N, 69.7W, 80, 974,
20170912, 0000, , HU, 27.0N, 69.6W, 80, 975,
20170912, 0600, , HU, 27.5N, 69.1W, 75, 979,
20170912, 1200, , HU, 27.7N, 68.4W, 75, 980,
20170912, 1800, , HU, 27.5N, 67.5W, 75, 980,
20170913, 0000, , HU, 26.7N, 66.7W, 75, 979,
20170913, 0600, , HU, 26.3N, 66.2W, 75, 979,
20170913, 1200, , HU, 25.8N, 65.8W, 70, 982,
20170913, 1800, , HU, 25.4N, 65.6W, 70, 983,
20170914, 0000, , HU, 25.1N, 65.8W, 80, 977,
20170914, 0600, , HU, 24.9N, 66.0W, 70, 982,
20170914, 1200, , TS, 24.8N, 66.3W, 60, 988,
20170914, 1800, , TS, 25.0N, 67.0W, 60, 989,
20170915, 0000, , TS, 25.4N, 67.6W, 60, 989,
20170915, 0600, , HU, 25.8N, 68.3W, 65, 986,
20170915, 1200, , HU, 26.3N, 69.0W, 65, 985,
20170915, 1800, , HU, 26.8N, 69.9W, 70, 984,
20170916, 0000, , HU, 27.2N, 70.7W, 70, 983,
20170916, 0600, , HU, 27.7N, 71.4W, 70, 981,
20170916, 1200, , HU, 28.2N, 71.8W, 70, 978,
20170916, 1800, , HU, 28.6N, 71.9W, 75, 973,
20170917, 0000, , HU, 28.9N, 71.9W, 75, 972,
20170917, 0600, , HU, 29.6N, 71.9W, 80, 970,
20170917, 1200, , HU, 30.5N, 71.9W, 85, 967,
20170917, 1800, , HU, 31.2N, 71.8W, 80, 969,
20170918, 0000, , HU, 31.9N, 71.6W, 80, 971,
20170918, 0600, , HU, 32.6N, 71.4W, 70, 974,
20170918, 1200, , HU, 33.5N, 71.2W, 65, 975,
20170918, 1800, , HU, 34.1N, 71.2W, 65, 975,
20170919, 0000, , HU, 34.8N, 71.4W, 65, 972,
20170919, 0600, , TS, 35.7N, 71.5W, 60, 972,
20170919, 1200, , TS, 36.4N, 71.5W, 60, 973,
20170919, 1800, , TS, 36.9N, 71.2W, 60, 974,
20170920, 0000, , TS, 37.6N, 71.0W, 60, 972,
20170920, 0600, , TS, 38.1N, 70.6W, 55, 976,
20170920, 1200, , TS, 38.6N, 70.2W, 60, 974,
20170920, 1800, , HU, 39.2N, 69.4W, 65, 975,
20170921, 0000, , TS, 39.4N, 68.6W, 55, 979,
20170921, 0600, , TS, 39.8N, 67.9W, 50, 983,
20170921, 1200, , TS, 39.7N, 68.1W, 50, 985,
20170921, 1800, , TS, 39.6N, 67.9W, 50, 986,
20170922, 0000, , EX, 39.6N, 68.0W, 45, 988,
20170922, 0600, , EX, 39.6N, 68.5W, 40, 991,
20170922, 1200, , EX, 39.6N, 68.9W, 40, 993,
20170922, 1800, , EX, 39.7N, 69.2W, 35, 997,
20170923, 0000, , EX, 39.8N, 69.5W, 30, 1001,
20170923, 0600, Dissipated
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Dec 25, 2017 3:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#742 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:53 pm

Crazyc83

Recon on the earlier mission also shown cat5 winds...So I'd also put that intensity at 12z on the 8th. Otherwise I agree with you.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#743 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:26 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Crazyc83

Recon on the earlier mission also shown cat5 winds...So I'd also put that intensity at 12z on the 8th. Otherwise I agree with you.


I wasn't sure the exact time but for some reason I thought the flight was around 1400Z. I'd need to read it over again. If that is the case, then 145 kt might be a reasonable peak intensity.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#744 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 29, 2017 6:34 am

If Jose would be upgraded into a category 5, more records would be added to the already record-breaking 2017 season.

Jose is one of a record three storms in 2017 to exceed 40 ACE, the most in an entire season in the Western Hemisphere.

The fact that Jose was a category 5 (very likely to be upgraded) isn't what primarily makes this historic, but it's these:

(1) It peaked alongside Irma (155-160 kts and Jose's 140-145), which would mark the only time in modern Atlantic hurricane season history that two category 5 hurricanes coexisted at some point and perhaps the entire world other than Typhoons Ivan and Joan in 1997.

(2) Jose would increase the tally of category five hurricanes to three, making 2017 the only season other than 2005 to have at least three such tempests. If upgraded to even 145-150 kts, we would be tied with 2005 for the highest number of hurricane above 140 kts.

(3) Jose may increase the record of highest ACE in a single day or a single six-hour period in the entire Western Hemisphere. *Note: the Atlantic has a higher per storm ACE (total ACE divided by storm count) than the EPAC during hyperactive seasons---EPAC 11 in 2015, ATL 16 in 2017* Interesting to note at the same time, Hurricane Katia was churning toward Mexico.
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