ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
are gradually becoming better organized. Conditions appear
conducive for continued development of this system. There is a
high likelihood that a tropical depression or tropical storm will
form within the next day or two while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[RL3AO]

They tried to sneak this one past us.

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Deep convection associated with the disturbance in the central
Atlantic has become more organized overnight. Banding features
are starting to develop as seen in the first-light visible pictures
from the GOES and METEOSAT imagery. Additionally, the ASCAT
scatterometers sampled the system at 1140Z and 1234Z, showing that a
well-defined - though slightly elongated - center had formed. The
maximum believable winds from ASCAT were 35 kt. Thus advisories
are being started on Tropical Storm Jose, the 10th named storm of
the Atlantic season.

With no history on the center location, the motion is estimated to
be west-northwest at 11 kt. Jose should move toward the west or
west-northwest for the next three to four days at a slightly faster
rate of forward speed as it moves south of the deep-layer
Azores-Bermuda high. In about four to five days, Jose should turn
toward the northwest and slow as it reaches the southwestern
periphery of the high. The model guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario and the official forecast is based upon a blend
of the ECMWF-GFS-UKMET deterministic and ensemble model output.

The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite
conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are
very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant
mid-level moisture. By days four and five, however, the vertical
shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to
its west. Thus the official intensity forecast show steady
intensification until day three, then remains flat through day
five. This forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus
technique, but has the usual - large - uncertainties at the long
forecast range.

The ASCAT observations indicate that the tropical-storm-force winds
extend out about 40 nm from the center in the southeastern
quadrant. The official size forecast suggests a gradual increase in
size, based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus approach.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 12.3N 39.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 12.8N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 13.4N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 13.9N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 14.4N 49.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 16.0N 55.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 18.5N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[RL3AO]

The NE Islands are way too close to the forecast track after Irma.

[JtSmarts]

Should be another nice ACE producer. This 2017 season is something else.

[NJWxHurricane]

no one should be sleeping on this storm either

[Kazmit]

Yeah this is peak season all right. And to think some were comparing this season to 2013 a few weeks ago.

[znel52]

Yeah Michael Ventrice is probably regretting his prediction of a dead September. Just goes to show how much more we have to learn about the tropics and what dictates them. We really don't know what is going to happen more than a couple of days out.

[EquusStorm]

With this and a possible Katia with the BoC disturbance, this is precisely why it irritates me to no end to hear proclamations of a dead season in July and August. People are a bit too used to the somewhat abnormal June-July-early Aug hyperactivity we've had since 1995.

[znel52]

With this and a possible Katia with the BoC disturbance, this is precisely why it irritates me to no end to hear proclamations of a dead season in July and August. People are a bit too used to the somewhat abnormal June-July-early Aug hyperactivity we've had since 1995.

Agreed we have trouble forecasting weather a few days ahead much less predicting a hurricane season months in advance you just never know what mother nature will do. We make an 'educated guess' but how educated is it really? I think we are just scratching the surface of our understanding of these storms.

Anyways back to Jose. Looks like we might be getting yet another major in the books this season. Curious to see how the upwelled waters and shear from Irma will effect it.

[galaxy401]

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

A distinct curved band of deep convection wraps more than half way
around the center of Jose in its southern semicircle. Due to the
improved structure, the Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB
and SAB have increased to a 3.0 and 2.0, respectively. A blend of
these input gives a 40 kt intensity for the initial time.

Jose's current motion is assessed to be west at 11 kt, though this
is uncertain due to not knowing the initial position with much
confidence. Jose should move toward the west or west-northwest for
the next three to four days at a slightly faster rate of forward
speed as it moves south of the deep-layer Azores-Bermuda high. In
about four to five days, Jose should turn toward the northwest and
slow as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the high. The
official track forecast is primarily based upon a blend of the
ECMWF-UKMET model output and is nearly unchanged from the previous
advisory.

The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite
conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are
very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant
mid-level moisture. By days four and five, however, the vertical
shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to
its west. Thus the official intensity forecast shows steady
intensification until day three, then decreases slightly to day
five. This forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus
technique, but has the usual - large - uncertainties at the long
forecast ranges.

No new observations have been available, so I have let it ride for
the initial tropical-storm-wind radii. The official size forecast
indicates a gradual increase in size, based upon the RVCN
multi-model consensus approach.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 12.5N 40.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 12.9N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 13.6N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 14.3N 48.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 14.9N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 16.5N 56.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 18.7N 59.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 22.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

[Kazmit]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 060231
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Jose continues to gradually strengthen. Geostationary and
microwave satellite images indicate that the center of the system
is located on the north side of the main area of deep convection.
Fragmented curved bands also exist to the north of the center. The
initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt, based on a recent
ASCAT pass. This wind speed estimate is also in agreement with a
T3.0/45 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB and similar ADT values
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

Satellite fixes suggest that Jose is moving westward at 12 kt. A
slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
during the next 3 days while Jose moves in the flow on the south and
southwest sides of a subtropical high. After that time, a slower
northwestward motion is forecast when Jose moves into a weakness in
the ridge. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there
is a considerable amount of spread in the 4 to 5 day period on when
and where Jose makes the northwest turn. The NHC official track
forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best
agreement with the various consensus models.

The tropical storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental
conditions for strengthening during the next few days, and Jose will
likely become a hurricane in about 24 hours and could be near major
hurricane strength by 72 hours. Thereafter, an increase in
northerly shear and some drier air should end the strengthening
trend and cause some weakening. The NHC intensity follows the ICON
and HCCA consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 12.3N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 12.8N 43.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 13.5N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 14.2N 49.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 14.9N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 16.7N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 19.2N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 22.4N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[wxmann_91]

Jose's developing that fist look. Would not be surprised if it underwent RI sometime in the next few days... which is what NHC seems to be anticipating as well.

[galaxy401]

This seems to be a pattern. Many times while we are watching a monster hurricane, there's a companion behind it that suddenly becomes a strong storm as well (Julia to Igor, Nicole to Matthew are other examples).

[wxmann_91]

This seems to be a pattern. Many times while we are watching a monster hurricane, there's a companion behind it that suddenly becomes a strong storm as well (Julia to Igor, Nicole to Matthew are other examples).

The outflow jet behind a hurricane can enhance the upper-level divergence to disturbances or storms behind it. Think we saw that with Gustav and Hanna in 2008 as well.

[shaneomac]

Basically Jose will be lurking and seeing what his big sister will track , once he does he will meander then track somewhere but the question is where models are all over the place so far but most have a consenus close Atlantic Canada .. going to be fun to track .

[1900hurricane]

I've mentioned this in a couple of other places already, but the current Atlantic look reminds quite a bit of an El Nino WPac setup. Much of the vertical motion is well to the east, which greatly benefits disturbances and developing systems. The established system then moves west and racks up ACE. I really don't see much reason to think that Jose won't eventually become a major hurricane too.

[EquusStorm]

By the way convection is exploding and wrapping, I wouldn't be shocked at all if the intensity gain is a bit quicker than forecast and this quickly becomes a major, perhaps a long lived one as per some guidance. The official forecast stops just short of Cat 3. This is really getting its act together, both this and Katia. Oh how quickly the Atlantic can change from unfavorable to a potent hurricane nursery.

[bob rulz]

This is getting its act together quickly. I imagine it will be a hurricane by 5pm.

[txwatcher91]

Jose is organizing rapidly this morning with nice banding ongoing. This will likely become a hurricane today if current trends continue.