ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

Makes you wonder if they'll try to rebuild some places that have been hit twice so close together.

[O Town]

This is quite a scary senecio for the islands. With limited communications and all the debris laying around. As if it wouldn't be scary enough with out those conditions. Hopefully Jose gets picked up to the North faster before he gets there.

[Gustywind]

Hope that those who are in the Leewards are monitoring carefully Hurricane José! Be on your guard my friends, do not let your guard down!

000
WTNT32 KNHC 071449
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY...
...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 50.6W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
islands of Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
islands of Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the islands of Saba and St. Eustatius

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin
Islands should monitor the progress of Jose.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 50.6 West. Jose is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to continue on this heading with a slight decrease in
forward speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Jose is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch and tropical storm watch areas by Saturday
morning.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla.
Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern
Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall
will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional
life-threatening flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are likely to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[msbee]

Speaking of the islands, how will they be able to communicate a potential second threat? Communications on some islands are really limited right now. This does look like a Luis-Marilyn situation.

Also, any plans for Recon? maybe on Friday?

I can tell you that St Maarten is in a shambles and will not to be able to handle a second storm. Communications here are difficult to impossible.

[abajan]

Speaking of the islands, how will they be able to communicate a potential second threat? Communications on some islands are really limited right now. This does look like a Luis-Marilyn situation.

Also, any plans for Recon? maybe on Friday?

I can tell you that St Maarten is in a shambles and will not to be able to handle a second storm. Communications here are difficult to impossible.

Really sorry to hear this, Barbara. But I'm certainly glad you're okay. Having viewed a video of Irma's fury on St Thomas, I'm concerned about the situation in Virgin Gorda. I know someone who lives there, and from what I could tell, that island got slammed with the right-front quadrant of the eyewall.

[Gustywind]

Speaking of the islands, how will they be able to communicate a potential second threat? Communications on some islands are really limited right now. This does look like a Luis-Marilyn situation.

Also, any plans for Recon? maybe on Friday?

I can tell you that St Maarten is in a shambles and will not to be able to handle a second storm. Communications here are difficult to impossible.

WAOUW GLAD TO SEE YOU THERE MSBEE i'm very happy to see that you're ok. Big prayers for you and all those who lived in the Northern Leewards. Let's hope that José will go fishing in spite of the worrying forecast for most of the Leewards! Keeping our fingers crossed.

[bob rulz]

Satellite presentation improving rapidly. Dvorak raw numbers at 6.0, 5.3 adjusted. This could already be category 3. Sickening to think some islands could get a double hit.

[supercane4867]

Raw T# up to 6.0
That's some serious RI. Maybe CAT4 by tonight.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 964.3mb/ 97.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.8 6.0

[Gustywind]

07/1745 UTC 15.3N 51.4W T5.5/5.5 JOSE

[galaxy401]

Eek this is the last thing that the Caribbean islands need, another potential major hurricane. Fortunately, the newest Euro has it missing the islands. Hopefully it'll turn north sooner.

[Cunxi Huang]

AL, 12, 2017090718, , BEST, 0, 153N, 516W, 100, 969, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 50, 100, 1013, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOSE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,

MH

[Chris90]

Jose's satellite presentation currently looks better to me than when Irma was first declared a major. Key phrase: when she was first declared a major. Not her current presentation or the presentation she's had the past few days.
Just in case anyone reads that quickly and thinks I'm nuts.

He's definitely getting his act together very quickly. I think there's a definite chance he makes the run to Cat 4.
Anyone want to make a guess as to peak intensity?

I'll guess 145mph, 942mb.

[CryHavoc]

Blink and Jose goes from a minimal hurricane to a cat 3. Unreal. Definite shades of 2005 where any invest seemed to spiral into a big cyclone.

Thankfully he won't impact the States, but some islands have to be really in for a rough week.

[galaxy401]

Blink and Jose goes from a minimal hurricane to a cat 3. Unreal. Definite shades of 2005 where any invest seemed to spiral into a big cyclone.

Thankfully he won't impact the States, but some islands have to be really in for a rough week.

Actually that's still up in the air. Euro and other models have this storm pulling a Jeanne and threatening Florida....Still long range though so hopefully they'll drop it.

[CryHavoc]

Blink and Jose goes from a minimal hurricane to a cat 3. Unreal. Definite shades of 2005 where any invest seemed to spiral into a big cyclone.

Thankfully he won't impact the States, but some islands have to be really in for a rough week.

Actually that's still up in the air. Euro and other models have this storm pulling a Jeanne and threatening Florida....Still long range though so hopefully they'll drop it.

True, way too far out to tell for sure. I stand respectfully corrected.

[galaxy401]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...JOSE BECOMES 3RD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

[WeatherGuesser]

I can tell you that St Maarten is in a shambles and will not to be able to handle a second storm. Communications here are difficult to impossible.

How are you able to communicate at all? I expected that would be all but impossible for a while.

[CryHavoc]

I can tell you that St Maarten is in a shambles and will not to be able to handle a second storm. Communications here are difficult to impossible.

How are you able to communicate at all? I expected that would be all but impossible for a while.

Sat uplink + backup batteries, maybe?

[Exalt]

Depending on upwelling and shear from Irma, if the conditions are right I wouldn't be surprised at another high-end Cat 4 or low-end Cat 5. Thing intensified very quickly..

[CrazyC83]

I wonder - will they be able to evacuate all the islands devastated? There is probably no safe place on them for places hit twice in a week by major hurricanes.