ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Dean_175
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 294
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:34 pm

Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#721 Postby Dean_175 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:19 am

Winds as reported by ASCAT have diminished somewhat- peak winds are shown as 45kt. Earlier, it was showing at least 50kt. Most of the wind field is producing minimal tropical storm winds (35-40kt).

Image
1 likes   
All posts by Dean_175 are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dean_175
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 294
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:34 pm

Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#722 Postby Dean_175 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:28 am

Looking nearly subtropical now:

Image

300mb NAM Analysis (00Z Sept 21) shows upper level low above surface cyclone.

Image
0 likes   
All posts by Dean_175 are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#723 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:24 am

Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 65
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 68.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket


Jose' is just sort of doodling around out there, almost lost and confused while dazing the coastal areas.
0 likes   

Michele B
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 906
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#724 Postby Michele B » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:37 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 65
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 68.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket


Jose' is just sort of doodling around out there, almost lost and confused while dazing the coastal areas.


That's OK in my book! As he's helping to keep Maria at bay, and unable to interact with CONUS.
0 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOSE - Low - Discussion

#725 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:52 pm

Looks like NHC pulled the plug. Jose is downgraded to a low for 00Z.

AL, 12, 2017092200, , BEST, 0, 396N, 682W, 45, 987, LO, 34, NEQ, 130, 150, 160, 180, 1012, 240, 100, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOSE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1475
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

Re: ATL: JOSE - Low - Discussion

#726 Postby 'CaneFreak » Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:39 pm

:uarrow: Good catch!!! I am beginning to see a westward or southwestward motion right now. This could throw a monkey wrench in the Maria forecast if it continues and it moves into the Mid-Atlantic. Something to watch for sure. That said, the guidance has been remarkably consistent on a turn and the lack of a strong ridge is definitely a hindrance for any kind of CONUS hit. Thank you Lord. :flag:
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#727 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:12 pm

what happened to subtropical? I guess they don't do that anymore with systems that go from Tropical to subtropical.

I was looking back at storms in the 70's and 80's and they did do that.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#728 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:18 pm

Jose was around for a long time. The 16.5 days as a tropical storm came close to Noru's 17.25 for the most this year.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#729 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:20 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:what happened to subtropical? I guess they don't do that anymore with systems that go from Tropical to subtropical.

I was looking back at storms in the 70's and 80's and they did do that.

It's rare, but it still happens on occasion.
2 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#730 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:24 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Advisory Number 70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS LOWERED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JOSE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 69.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose
was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 69.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6
km/h) and a slow southeastward drift is forecast for the next day
or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of
the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions during the next couple of days. For more
information, please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake

---------------------


70 Advisories ain't so bad though. Right up there with the Senior Citizens.
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#731 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:43 pm

Adios Jose! You were nice enough to spare landmasses unlike your sisters Irma and Maria. Hopefully you helped pull Maria away from the US.

Also as a person from Chicago, I'm pointing the finger at the heat wave we are having right now towards you Jose. :D
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
bg1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 408
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 11:14 am
Location: near Santee, SC

Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#732 Postby bg1 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:01 pm

"After 70 advisories, enough is enough."
-Forecaster Blake, 2017
3 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#733 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:05 pm

000
WTNT42 KNHC 222034
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

After 70 advisories, enough is enough. The tropical-storm-force
winds from Jose have finally subsided and moved out of the
southern New England. Thus, the wind hazard to land has decreased,
and this will be the last advisory on Jose since it is already
post-tropical. A slow decay over cold water is forecast while the
low drifts southeastward to southward. The cyclone should
degenerate into a trough within 3 days as forecast by the global
models.

The swell and rip current threat will remain across large portions
of the U.S. east coast for quite some time, due to the wave field
from both Jose and Maria.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 39.3N 69.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 23/0600Z 39.1N 69.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 23/1800Z 38.7N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 38.4N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 38.2N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#734 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:55 pm

After 70 advisories, fooling us and possibly reaching category 5 intensity, it's time for the :Door:, finally.

See you in 2023! We can't say that to some of your brothers and sisters - consider yourself lucky!
1 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#735 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:57 pm

Where is '70' in the rankings of numbers of advisories. Seems kind of high, but how high?
0 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#736 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:43 pm

Jose at 130kts:

Image
1 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#737 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:09 pm

Kyle in 2002 had 89 advisories, Alberto in 2000 had 78, and Nadine in 2012 had 88, those are the longest I remember and I checked the NHC archive to verify the exact numbers. Ivan was apparently only on 59 before its Gulf regeneration, and Irma had a total of 52. I'd say we're in the top ten all time, at least recently; sometimes tricky to access reports on storms like Inga (with 72), Ginger, Inez, etc. Shouldn't be that hard to determine given four daily advisories and a known storm length of existence.

Poking around some more in the NHC archive... even 60-advisory storms are very rare. Isabel didn't get there, nor did Igor, or Nicole of last year, or Mitch, or a bunch of others. Bertha also hit 70 tying with Jose, but honestly as far back as the archive goes, Jose is looking like a possible top five of the current active era, at least.
4 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
SuperMarioBros99thx
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 192
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:38 am
Location: Banjarmasin, Indonesia

Re: ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#738 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:11 am

CrazyC83 wrote:After 70 advisories, fooling us and possibly reaching category 5 intensity, it's time for the :Door:, finally.

See you in 2023! We can't say that to some of your brothers and sisters - consider yourself lucky!

I think despite no damages Jose might get "Hawaii treatment" for endangering the Barbuda if i am not wrong. I could keep your verdict as "Keep" but not certain.
1 likes   
My opinions are mine and SHOULD not be treated as an official source of information. PLEASE see National Hurricane Center, or any other meteorological agencies, for that matter. By the way, I was born and came from Indonesia, which is rarely hit by tropical cyclones, but regardless, I have LOTS of interest in meteorology.

User avatar
Buck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1128
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#739 Postby Buck » Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:36 pm

^^ Right, obviously Jose doesn't actually warrant retirement, but the emotional anxiety that the people of Barbuda (and others) might have felt, might spur them to make a case for retirement along with his sisters Irma and Maria.
0 likes   

User avatar
SuperMarioBros99thx
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 192
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:38 am
Location: Banjarmasin, Indonesia

Re: ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

#740 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:44 pm

If Jose doesn't dissapiate by this point, there is a chance where he could regenerate by 72 hours and make landfall as a hurricane on NC, greatly increasing his chances to get retired pretty well. (Nope, i found out that it was absorbed by Maria, not regenerating)
0 likes   
My opinions are mine and SHOULD not be treated as an official source of information. PLEASE see National Hurricane Center, or any other meteorological agencies, for that matter. By the way, I was born and came from Indonesia, which is rarely hit by tropical cyclones, but regardless, I have LOTS of interest in meteorology.


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests