ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#661 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:04 am

Image
A slow death from dry air intrusion looks the likely outcome.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#662 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:57 am

They are still calling it tropical, but it sure does not look like it.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#663 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:11 am

:uarrow: I agree, it sure does not look purely tropical, based on the recon the strongest winds are now well away from the COC, is a subtropical system at best now.
Recon has not found hurricane force winds at the surface yet.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#664 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:48 am

Recent AF recon confirms that Jose is no longer a hurricane.

URNT12 KNHC 181137
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122017
A. 18/11:24:40Z
B. 33 deg 32 min N
071 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2901 m
D. 57 kt
E. 331 deg 47 nm
F. 076 deg 63 kt
G. 332 deg 52 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 9 C / 3048 m
J. 16 C / 3052 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 1112A JOSE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 63 KT 332 / 52 NM 11:09:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 090 / 15 KT
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#665 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:17 am

On and off showers in Nassau County with the winds starting to pick up a little bit
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#666 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:35 am

Image

Just a wobble, right?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#667 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:13 am

Jose looks like it's trying a last hurrah with developing towers, moving N-NW.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#668 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:51 am

Gusty with periods of heavy showers here. Radar link:
http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#669 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:40 am

Looks like Jose is transitioning, or has transitioned, to a subtropical system.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#670 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:09 pm

Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#671 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:13 pm

1900hurricane wrote:From Alyono on Twitter:



https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/909807193372942336


Wait...Derek Ortt is Alyono here on Storm2k???


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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#672 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:14 pm

1900hurricane wrote:From Alyono on Twitter:



https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/909807193372942336

Mind blown. :double:
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#673 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:25 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:From Alyono on Twitter:



https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/909807193372942336

Mind blown. :double:


Ummm..better tell Euro too as it increases its intensity by 20 mb as it heads north! Soon to be a naked swirl based on SAT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#674 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:03 pm

Hard to believe this gains the kind of strength the models generally show with the way it looks like now and conditions are only getting worse from here.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#675 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:Hard to believe this gains the kind of strength the models generally show with the way it looks like now and conditions are only getting worse from here.


No chance of gaining barclonic energy to at least slow the weakening?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#676 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:29 pm

Somebody better tell Jose fast that he's weakening. A large area of strong convection is blowing up around the center. Oh, and better tell someone that the center just jogged significantly westward. It went from 71.1 to almost 72 degrees in the last few hours.

Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#677 Postby tpinnola » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:03 pm

ozonepete wrote:Somebody better tell Jose fast that he's weakening. A large area of strong convection is blowing up around the center. Oh, and better tell someone that the center just jogged significantly westward. It went from 71.1 to almost 72 degrees in the last few hours.

Image


Is it just me or do the models not show the center that close to the coast?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#678 Postby Exalt » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:06 pm

Question, will Jose get upgraded in the TCRs? I do recall that 137kt (IIRC) SFMR from peak (or maybe not yet peak) intensity.. If so, 3 Cat 5s in one season is just.. Wow, I didn't think we would have anything like this after 2005 or 2007.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#679 Postby znel52 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:20 pm

This stall wasn't forecasted was it? Wonder how long he is going to sit.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#680 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:46 pm

Wow Jose is looking bad. How on earth are the models going to verify with the strengthening over the next 24 hours?
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