ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#681 Postby JBCycloneStan » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:47 pm

Cranky on twitter is purporting that this stall is likely a harbinger of an east turn happening imminently. He's making it seem like its gonna make an exit OTS sooner than anticipated. This is worrying considering the effect on the path of Maria toward the CONUS.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#682 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow Jose is looking bad. How on earth are the models going to verify with the strengthening over the next 24 hours?


Because it may be looking bad to you, but it has been going from bad to better. :)
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#683 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:43 pm

Somebody explain to me why is Jose is still been called a hurricane, yet along a pure tropical system.
It should had been downgraded to a subtropical storm earlier today.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#684 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:33 pm

NDG wrote:Somebody explain to me why is Jose is still been called a hurricane, yet along a pure tropical system.
It should had been downgraded to a subtropical storm earlier today.

Yeah that is anything but tropical in nature. Why does the NHC like to hold-off on downgrading systems? I understand it is a threat to the NE U.S.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#685 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:00 pm

ozonepete wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Wow Jose is looking bad. How on earth are the models going to verify with the strengthening over the next 24 hours?


Because it may be looking bad to you, but it has been going from bad to better. :)

In what way? :?:
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#686 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:12 pm

How is this still a hurricane when the strongest surface winds recon has measured are 60-65mph and FL winds of 70kts? This definitely shouldn’t be a hurricane and should be a subtropical storm now imo.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#687 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:31 pm

I think one of the reasons it's still being classified as a hurricane is to keep public awareness in the northeast heightened.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#688 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:39 pm

It's still tropical. Recon shows a warm core and pretty much no temperature gradient outside of the center. The models show shear dropping quickly tomorrow and intensification. I'm not holding my breath.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#689 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:45 pm

RL3AO wrote:It's still tropical. Recon shows a warm core and pretty much no temperature gradient outside of the center. The models show shear dropping quickly tomorrow and intensification. I'm not holding my breath.

https://i.imgur.com/O4AvujG.png

Actually looks like a warm seclusion tropical system with a warm core having both barotropical processes and baroclinic processes
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#690 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:54 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Actually looks like a warm seclusion tropical system with a warm core having both barotropical processes and baroclinic processes


There's certainly some baroclinicity involved. It actually held on better this evening than I was expecting. Maybe it'll do better than I'm expecting tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#691 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:23 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:Somebody explain to me why is Jose is still been called a hurricane, yet along a pure tropical system.
It should had been downgraded to a subtropical storm earlier today.


Yeah that is anything but tropical in nature. Why does the NHC like to hold-off on downgrading systems? I understand it is a threat to the NE U.S.


Whether it's a threat or not, as long as convection maintains itself around the center it'll still qualify as a tropical system, as it's at very least subtropical at the moment--I've seen systems over the open Atlantic that looked worse and had advisories initiated.

A lot about Jose actually reminds me a lot of (ironically named) Josephine in 1984, including satellite appearance:

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#692 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:12 am

The past 2 recon missions have failed to find hurricane force winds. Jose weakened to a tropical storm over 24 hours ago. The NHC forecasters are always reluctant to downgrade hurricanes that are nearing the U.S., for fear that the public won't pay attention to a tropical storm (or subtropical storm). Frustrating when we're telling our clients it's a tropical storm and the NHC keeps calling it a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#693 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:22 am

wxman57 wrote:The past 2 recon missions have failed to find hurricane force winds. Jose weakened to a tropical storm over 24 hours ago. The NHC forecasters are always reluctant to downgrade hurricanes that are nearing the U.S., for fear that the public won't pay attention to a tropical storm (or subtropical storm). Frustrating when we're telling our clients it's a tropical storm and the NHC keeps calling it a hurricane.


Do you think even at this reduced strength, that the Jose will weaken the ridge enough as the models have been latching onto to allow Maria a way through the ridge?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#694 Postby pgoss11 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:27 am

Ken711 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The past 2 recon missions have failed to find hurricane force winds. Jose weakened to a tropical storm over 24 hours ago. The NHC forecasters are always reluctant to downgrade hurricanes that are nearing the U.S., for fear that the public won't pay attention to a tropical storm (or subtropical storm). Frustrating when we're telling our clients it's a tropical storm and the NHC keeps calling it a hurricane.


Do you think even at this reduced strength, that the Jose will weaken the ridge enough as the models have been latching onto to allow Maria a way through the ridge?

The guidance is almost unanimous that Maria will not have direct impacts with the CONUS for at least the next 5-7 days. Jose definitely left a weakness in the ridge which will cause Maria to turn before the Bahamas. I, for one, am hoping this pans out.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#695 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:40 am

So far recon has not found hurricane force winds not even at flight level not unless is far in the northern quadrant at flight level.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#696 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:33 am

Could the overdoing of José be affecting Maria's track
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#697 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:37 am

Jose is making a nice comeback today as an impressive, large convective band continues to wrap into and spiral in toward the center. For now, this has certainly helped to maintain Jose, as a matter of fact, he may have even strengthened a bit this morning. Also. Jose has hardly moved at all in the past 12-18 hours or so. Seems stationary atm.

Jose is a tenacious storm, just keeps chugging along. Now at 15 days as a trackable tropical entity and counting.

Interesting to see how this will play into the already complex situation with the pattern with Jose and Maria down the road.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#698 Postby crm6360 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:55 am

NDG wrote:So far recon has not found hurricane force winds not even at flight level not unless is far in the northern quadrant at flight level.

You have to love their rationale for maintaining hurricane status: "There might be hurricane gusts somewhere that the plane hasn't sampled... so you know, we just can't rule out that possibility." :roll:
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#699 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:02 am

crm6360 wrote:
NDG wrote:So far recon has not found hurricane force winds not even at flight level not unless is far in the northern quadrant at flight level.

You have to love their rationale for maintaining hurricane status: "There might be hurricane gusts somewhere that the plane hasn't sampled... so you know, we just can't rule out that possibility." :roll:


Highest FL winds I saw were around 65kts.. with such shallow convection and based on dropsonde data, surface winds are 55-60mph max. I understand keeping the public aware but fudging the numbers when recon data doesn't support a hurricane isn't a good idea either.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#700 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:06 am

txwatcher91 wrote:
crm6360 wrote:
NDG wrote:So far recon has not found hurricane force winds not even at flight level not unless is far in the northern quadrant at flight level.

You have to love their rationale for maintaining hurricane status: "There might be hurricane gusts somewhere that the plane hasn't sampled... so you know, we just can't rule out that possibility." :roll:


Highest FL winds I saw were around 65kts.. with such shallow convection and based on dropsonde data, surface winds are 55-60mph max. I understand keeping the public aware but fudging the numbers when recon data doesn't support a hurricane isn't a good idea either.


I think post season analysis of Jose there will be a lot of changes to intensity and type of system he is/was will be all over the place. We can see him upgraded to a Cat 5 for some time, then change from Hurricane for the past 48 hours to Sub-Tropical Storm.
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