ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#701 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:11 am

Blinhart wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
crm6360 wrote:You have to love their rationale for maintaining hurricane status: "There might be hurricane gusts somewhere that the plane hasn't sampled... so you know, we just can't rule out that possibility." :roll:


Highest FL winds I saw were around 65kts.. with such shallow convection and based on dropsonde data, surface winds are 55-60mph max. I understand keeping the public aware but fudging the numbers when recon data doesn't support a hurricane isn't a good idea either.


I think post season analysis of Jose there will be a lot of changes to intensity and type of system he is/was will be all over the place. We can see him upgraded to a Cat 5 for some time, then change from Hurricane for the past 48 hours to Sub-Tropical Storm.


I agree in post season they will probably do so.. but the past 24 hours this has had no evidence of hurricane force winds from recon. With weak convection and rising pressure combined with FL winds barely at hurricane force there really is no reason for this to still be labeled a hurricane anymore... It is a moderate TS or subtropical storm at best right now with 60mph winds.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#702 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:19 am

I have a problem with the GFS showing Jose to deepen and maintain its pressure down into the 960s mb range all day tomorrow when it will be tracking over SST in the low to mid 70s.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#703 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:43 am

Jose's satellite presentation has...improved... More convection and it actually looks like it's trying to wrap around it's center of circulation. Maybe it actually will strengthen some.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#704 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:50 am

Vdogg wrote:Jose's satellite presentation has...improved... More convection and it actually looks like it's trying to wrap around it's center of circulation. Maybe it actually will strengthen some.

Image
Looks more ET than tropical to me...
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#705 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:58 am

Blown Away wrote:
Vdogg wrote:Jose's satellite presentation has...improved... More convection and it actually looks like it's trying to wrap around it's center of circulation. Maybe it actually will strengthen some.

Image
Looks more ET than tropical to me...


That may be but the NHC pointed out that the core was still warm and there are no fronts associated with it in their 11 am discussion. Perhaps subtropical? It definitely looks like it's trying to claw back to life some. Just yesterday this thing looked like it was going to be nothing more than a swirl.
Last edited by Vdogg on Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#706 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:07 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Vdogg wrote:Jose's satellite presentation has...improved... More convection and it actually looks like it's trying to wrap around it's center of circulation. Maybe it actually will strengthen some.

Image
Looks more ET than tropical to me...


No that's definitely tropical, it has convection wrapping around the center and recon confirmed it was tropical. Hurricanes can exist in colder water temps, anyone remember Vince or Epsilon.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#707 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:15 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Vdogg wrote:Jose's satellite presentation has...improved... More convection and it actually looks like it's trying to wrap around it's center of circulation. Maybe it actually will strengthen some.

Image
Looks more ET than tropical to me...


No that's definitely tropical, it has convection wrapping around the center and recon confirmed it was tropical. Hurricanes can exist in colder water temps, anyone remember Vince or Epsilon.


you need a tropopause to get hurricanes over cold waters
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#708 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:50 pm

Jose to be around until Sunday. Talk about a long running hurricane/storm.

INIT 19/1500Z 36.5N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 37.8N 70.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 39.1N 69.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 39.9N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 39.9N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 39.2N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/1200Z 38.7N 67.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/1200Z 38.4N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#709 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:38 pm

Jose has taken advantage of tracking right on top of the gulf stream today along with decreased windshear has gained more tropical characteristics again but by tomorrow it will be tracking into much cooler waters, low to mid 70s.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#710 Postby JaxGator » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:17 pm

NDG wrote:Jose has taken advantage of tracking right on top of the gulf stream today along with decreased windshear has gained more tropical characteristics again but by tomorrow it will be tracking into much cooler waters, low to mid 70s.


I guessed that the Gulf Stream would do Jose a favor today and it made a come back today, but yes the cooler waters are in store afterward.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#711 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:28 pm

The 06Z best track update will take Jose above 40 units of ACE.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#712 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:04 pm

Here’s a rough estimate of where the center of Jose is... notice he has been over some really warm Gulf Stream water but he’s about to hit some really cold water.
Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#713 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:25 pm

Just for a little humor for tough times in the tropics, 3 out of the 5 people that I talked to at school thought that Jose passed here yesterday and that the heavy rain and gusty winds were from Maria, they were then confused to find out that Maria is still deep in the Caribbean :roll:
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#714 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:42 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#715 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:51 pm

For the first time in 318 hours, Jose is not a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#716 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:59 pm

Image Current radar presentation.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#717 Postby BZSTORM » Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:56 pm

Can someone tell me what a B in post tropical circle means on the tracking map the 2pm advisory had a post tropical B , which has no become a post tropical depression at 5pm. Was it a typo or is that B an actual classification? thanks
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#718 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:24 pm

I'm pretty sure that's a S and a D in the same spot (expecting it to be stationary) making it look like a B. I noticed that too.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#719 Postby Dean_175 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:05 pm

^^ Yes - S and D. S means winds greater than 39 mph, D means less than.

Unisys surface analysis is already placing a front near the center(not quite though) --I'll need to delete this in the hour though as I have no website to post statics to.

You can already see a frontal kink in the outer isobars- though the system still maintains a tight isolated circulation with associated convective clouds. ASCAT is still showing a fairly circular (and symmetric) wind field- with strongest winds (>50kts) near the center. Overall- it is still tropical, but clearly under transition.
Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#720 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:27 pm

RL3AO wrote:For the first time in 318 hours, Jose is not a hurricane.

My goodness
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