ATL: JOSE - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: JOSE - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:35 am

Only model runs here.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:46 am

12z GFS does many loop movements with future Jose.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:09 pm

This is nor Irma is Jose doing this long range thing.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:11 pm

Makes a big loop before moving west too. Yeah I buy that GFS :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#5 Postby Michele B » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:10 pm

Yes, I watched this loop!

Not sure how to embed.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/34 ... 44dd72.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:04 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:06 pm

As long as it avoids Irma's large outflow conditions look good enough to get a decent hurricane out of this, most models getting into the 970s/960s so a chance of a major cane out of this one as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:07 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:34 pm

00z GFS doing loops again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#10 Postby bob rulz » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:11 am

Do the loops involve interaction with Irma? That can cause some really strange movements.

Either way, I wouldn't buy models on this much at all yet. Just not enough of a center fix to get good initialization.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:49 am

Another cat 4 for this 2017 season.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#12 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:23 pm

bob rulz wrote:Do the loops involve interaction with Irma? That can cause some really strange movements.

Either way, I wouldn't buy models on this much at all yet. Just not enough of a center fix to get good initialization.


No. It seems to have more to do with the two weather systems influencing Irma. The high press. ridge lifts out, the next trough moves in and pulls Irma northward and it lifts out, and then the hp ridge builds again, so Jose is stuck riding up down and around those two. I embedded a link with a clip of the model....above here about 5 posts.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#13 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:56 pm

Don't underestimate the range this season!

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#14 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:45 pm

Really, GFS?

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They're gonna get cussed at if they're wrong about both Irma's and Jose's paths as well as Jose's pressure.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#15 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:46 pm

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Trend continues!!!

The pattern for this season isn't for weak ridges like the past 5-6 years.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#16 Postby shaneomac » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:50 pm

Basically Jose will be lurking and seeing what his big sister will track , once he does he will meander then track somewhere but the question is where models are all over the place so far but most have a consenus close Atlantic Canada .. going to be fun to track .
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#17 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:59 am

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#18 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:51 am

Way off in fantasy land, but a piece of energy breaks off the trough and looks to pull Jose. Something to watch

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#19 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:08 pm

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SW in the Euro.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#20 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:50 pm

MatthewsRevenge wrote:Really, GFS?

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They're gonna get cussed at if they're wrong about both Irma's and Jose's paths as well as Jose's pressure.


Another cat 5, insane :double:
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