ATL: JOSE - Models

[Airboy]

I'd hope that's hour 174, if Jose is still going in 174 days I think we're going to see some forecasters quit and we would rename the Atlantic "Jose's Back Yard"

ops...haha

[RL3AO]

Thos UKMet forecasts that brought this to Florida are really starting to hurt it's stats now.

[Ken711]

Euro 12z looks east this run.

[xironman]

Euro 12z looks east this run.

Starts east, goes west, then goes into an anticyclonic loop. Seems the models are clueless beyond 3 days which makes sense since the synoptics are pretty flat.

[BobHarlem]

What in blazes is the Euro doing with Jose and future Maria and Lee all fairly close? i have no idea what to make of that.

[xironman]

What in blazes is the Euro doing with Jose and future Maria and Lee all fairly close? i have no idea what to make of that.

Weak steering currents. On the upside we could see Fujiwhara effect on the east coast in 10 days, so there is that.

[jabman98]

Looks like UKMET shifted east again.

Dang. The UKMET has been all over the place. West outlier bringing Jose across Florida to about New Orleans. Then east, east, east.

What is it that's making it hard for the models to figure out what Jose is doing? I know there's more agreement now, but a day or so ago they were all over the place.

[weathaguyry]

Looks like UKMET shifted east again.

Dang. The UKMET has been all over the place. West outlier bringing Jose across Florida to about New Orleans. Then east, east, east.

What is it that's making it hard for the models to figure out what Jose is doing? I know there's more agreement now, but a day or so ago they were all over the place.

I believe it is because the steering pattern is fairly complex once it gets closer to New England, there are a few different areas of high pressure, and it depends on which area dominates

[jabman98]

Looks like UKMET shifted east again.

Dang. The UKMET has been all over the place. West outlier bringing Jose across Florida to about New Orleans. Then east, east, east.

What is it that's making it hard for the models to figure out what Jose is doing? I know there's more agreement now, but a day or so ago they were all over the place.

I believe it is because the steering pattern is fairly complex once it gets closer to New England, there are a few different areas of high pressure, and it depends on which area dominates

That would be my guess. It's just been interesting to watch the models flip all over the place over the last few days.

[xironman]

I'm going with NJ

[xironman]

Four days until a decent 'cane approaches the megalopolis

[johngaltfla]

Four days until a decent 'cane approaches the megalopolis

We are going to run out of major cities to freak out at this pace.

[GCANE]

[jabman98]

Four days until a decent 'cane approaches the megalopolis

That's impressive looking. I bet some folks in the NE are going to be getting a bit nervous.

[ColdMiser123]

GEFS are pretty aggressive.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The thing about these models plots, I wonder what the thermal profile of the storm is by the time it reaches the NE? Meaning is Jose extratropical, subtropical or even fully extratropical by then. Each possibility would produce a different wind & rain outcome for the region.

[ColdMiser123]

The 12z GFS was too far NE with the short term trend compared to observations.

[CrazyC83]

The thing about these models plots, I wonder what the thermal profile of the storm is by the time it reaches the NE? Meaning is Jose extratropical, subtropical or even fully extratropical by then. Each possibility would produce a different wind & rain outcome for the region.

GFS keeps it fully tropical, but that may be overdone.

[txwatcher91]

18z GEFS was quite a bit west of the 12z run. It seems like Jose has stalled so I’m not sure how that will effect the track, if any.

[StormTracker]

WOW, very quiet in this thread considering we have small threat to the midatlantic and north east states.

It's not FL, so no one is posting. A shame.

GFS has initialized and appears to be NE of the 6z position currently.

that sums it up, should of guessed that was the problem.

Did it ever occur to you that a lot of us in Florida still are without electricity and or internet? My apologies MODS! Now, back to the models...ST