ATL: JOSE - Models

[weathaguyry]

After a full week of school, it feels good to be model watching again. We shall see what the 0z GFS, and other overnight models show with Jose.

[weathaguyry]

A little bit N and a tad weaker than the 18z

[USTropics]

Very close to the 18z run, maybe 25-50 miles east:

[weathaguyry]

During the run, it was mostly south of the 18z, and turned faster

[ColdMiser123]

0z CMC is into SNE.

0z UK is extremely close to Cape Cod. Shift west from 12z.

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 70.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2017 0 27.2N 70.7W 979 66
1200UTC 16.09.2017 12 28.1N 72.2W 972 67
0000UTC 17.09.2017 24 28.9N 72.4W 962 70
1200UTC 17.09.2017 36 30.0N 72.0W 951 81
0000UTC 18.09.2017 48 31.6N 71.3W 940 84
1200UTC 18.09.2017 60 33.4N 71.3W 938 88
0000UTC 19.09.2017 72 35.0N 71.5W 943 76
1200UTC 19.09.2017 84 36.9N 71.5W 943 73
0000UTC 20.09.2017 96 38.9N 71.7W 948 66
1200UTC 20.09.2017 108 41.0N 70.6W 964 51
0000UTC 21.09.2017 120 42.2N 69.1W 979 43
1200UTC 21.09.2017 132 41.9N 67.7W 991 40
0000UTC 22.09.2017 144 41.2N 67.3W 1001 35

[USTropics]

00z UKMET plots:

[ColdMiser123]

00z UKMET plots:

Something about this doesn't seem right. The last point longitudinally should be very close to eastern Maine.

[ColdMiser123]

This is what the raw coordinates look like when plotted from the UKMET. Courtesy of True Weather.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET plots:

Something about this doesn't seem right. The last point longitudinally should be very close to eastern Maine.

I used the SFWMD plots:

TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.9N 69.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2017 25.9N 69.4W MODERATE
00UTC 16.09.2017 27.0N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2017 28.1N 72.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2017 28.9N 72.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2017 30.0N 72.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2017 31.5N 72.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2017 32.8N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2017 34.3N 71.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2017 36.1N 71.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.09.2017 38.2N 71.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2017 40.1N 69.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2017 41.6N 66.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.09.2017 42.9N 62.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[ColdMiser123]

00z UKMET plots:

Something about this doesn't seem right. The last point longitudinally should be very close to eastern Maine.

I used the SFWMD plots:

TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.9N 69.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2017 25.9N 69.4W MODERATE
00UTC 16.09.2017 27.0N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2017 28.1N 72.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2017 28.9N 72.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2017 30.0N 72.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2017 31.5N 72.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2017 32.8N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2017 34.3N 71.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2017 36.1N 71.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.09.2017 38.2N 71.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2017 40.1N 69.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2017 41.6N 66.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.09.2017 42.9N 62.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

Those are the 9/15 12z coordinates. 9/16 0z coordinates are closer to the coast. They are plotted above.

[USTropics]

Something about this doesn't seem right. The last point longitudinally should be very close to eastern Maine.

I used the SFWMD plots:

TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.9N 69.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2017 25.9N 69.4W MODERATE
00UTC 16.09.2017 27.0N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2017 28.1N 72.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2017 28.9N 72.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2017 30.0N 72.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2017 31.5N 72.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2017 32.8N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2017 34.3N 71.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2017 36.1N 71.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.09.2017 38.2N 71.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2017 40.1N 69.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2017 41.6N 66.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.09.2017 42.9N 62.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

Those are the 9/15 12z coordinates. 9/16 0z coordinates are closer to the coast. They are plotted above.

Good catch and my fault on that, didn't open the correct file, here are the actual 00z UKMET plots (which you can see from the 12z plots above, did shift west ):

[ColdMiser123]

GEFS are very far west. Mean is just south of central Long Island.

[johngaltfla]

It's not FL, so no one is posting. A shame.

GFS has initialized and appears to be NE of the 6z position currently.

that sums it up, should of guessed that was the problem.

Did it ever occur to you that a lot of us in Florida still are without electricity and or internet? My apologies MODS! Now, back to the models...ST

Thank you. I just got my internet back this morning and posting via phone is a pain. Back to our new model panic.

[johngaltfla]

GEFS are very far west. Mean is just south of central Long Island.

If this model trend holds, this is bad for NY,CT, MA due to the east winds and flooding which would occur.

[xironman]

Maybe 50 miles NW of yesterday

['CaneFreak]

Yeah. It is going to be a close call for New England. I am having a hard time with this pattern. Seems like models are destroying the Canadian ridge too quickly or something as they turn it to the east of New England. Not sure. Euro was very strange. Brought it northwest of the previous runs then did a quick turn to the east. Strange. It seemed to me that the ridge was holding well between 96 and 120 hr based on the 500 mb heights and height anomalies and so this brought me great skepticism of the quick east turn.

Maybe 50 miles NW of yesterday

[xironman]

So shouldn't ex-Jose want to go into NJ at this point?

[tolakram]

If, and I have to say I doubt it highly, but if Jose and Maria get tangled it would push Jose west.

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

Updated track errors with Jose.