WPAC: TALIM - Post Tropical

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2017 Time : 094000 UTC
Lat : 15:08:10 N Lon : 142:46:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 997.8mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.9 2.9

Center Temp : -22.3C Cloud Region Temp : -58.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.8 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

Quite an interesting scenario from NAVGEM.

It develops 95W instead and dissipates 20W. Has Talim passing north of Okinawa as a 971 mb typhoon.

[euro6208]

Much weaker from the EURO only 993 mb at peak. Southern Taiwan.

[euro6208]

GFS has gone bonkers again this time not in subtropical latitudes.

Has a Cat 5 landfall for Taiwan.

Peaks it at 914mb on the full resolution and 903mb on the mslp 10 min. 928 mb at landfall for the latter.

[euro6208]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.09.2017



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 145.6E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 09.09.2017 15.0N 145.6E WEAK

12UTC 09.09.2017 16.2N 142.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.09.2017 16.4N 139.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2017 16.9N 138.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.09.2017 18.1N 135.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.09.2017 19.3N 132.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.09.2017 20.7N 129.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.09.2017 21.6N 127.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 13.09.2017 22.5N 124.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 13.09.2017 23.4N 121.7E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.09.2017 25.1N 119.3E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 14.09.2017 26.1N 118.1E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 15.09.2017 28.9N 117.7E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[euro6208]

OHC is very high along the path.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

I think Talim would make a Meranti re-run (similar but not identical). It won't be a hit for Taiwan IMO but it would be hitting Shantou (not Xiamen) as a strong typhoon. I am on GFS at intensity but Euro at path.

[doomhaMwx]

Now officially Tropical Storm "Talim"...
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1718.html

[euro6208]

20W TALIM 170909 1200 15.2N 142.7E WPAC 35 1005

Now upgraded to a TS.

It's still in NWS Guam's area of responsibility but am not going to post the advisories on this since it is already exiting the Marianas and is fairly weak.

[euro6208]

JTWC has a 115 knot Cat 4 landfall for Southern Taiwan.

[tatlopuyo]

This wont be a threat to manila right?

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
NORTHWEST OF NAVAL STATION GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WHICH IS BECOMING STEADILY MORE
ORGANIZED, WITH BUILDING CONVECTION AND MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL
BANDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
091807Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC , WITH
MOST CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN TO SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY, WHICH ALSO
MATCH FAIRLY WELL WITH AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) FIX
POSITIONS OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY ASSESSMENT OF AVAILABLE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW,
HEDGED HIGHER BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 1209Z ASCAT PASS WITH 35
KNOT WINDS AND ADT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.1 (53 KNOTS)
AND SATCON ESTIMATES OF 39 KNOTS. TS 20W IS TRANSITING THROUGH A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SINGLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OVER 31 CELSIUS. TS 20W IS TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-
LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR OKINAWA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS TALIM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
EXTENSION OF THE DEEP STR WHICH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR OKINAWA
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL STR WILL TRANSIT EASTWARD TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF TS 20W BY TAU 48. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, BUT THIS MOVEMENT WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON INTENSITY. VWS AND SSTS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS HOWEVER, AS
THE STR TRANSITS ACROSS THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLY, SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL IMPINGE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
LEADING TO INTENSIFICATION AT A RATE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT IS
SUGGESTED IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTERWARDS AND THROUGH TAU 72,
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS NEAR THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BOTH THE TRACK AND SPEED THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD TO
TAU 72, WITH THE EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE MODELS (EGRR, ECMWF, JGSM)
BEING THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS AND THE NVGM AND COTC DELINEATING THE
NORTHERN LIMIT OF THE ENVELOPE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN TAIWAN, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DEEP LAYER STR. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN AN OPTIMUM
INTENSIFICATION ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRANSITS NORTHWESTERN TOWARDS THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. VWS WILL REMAIN LOW, SSTS REMAIN HIGH AND THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK AT 115 KNOTS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN BY TAU
96. TS TALIM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND INCREASING VWS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LATER TAUS, WITH THE SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS (EGRR TO THE SOUTH,
NVGM TO THE NORTH) NOW AT 430 NM. NVGM AND COTC CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH BY TAU 120 INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARDS WITH THIS RUN, BUT THE FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

This wont be a threat to manila right?

Yes. I'm certain it's not

[1900hurricane]

Talim's movement over the next 24 hours may be the biggest factor to the system's intensity. Further north puts it into the TUTT, and it's game over. If it manages to stay south, it'll probably be alright. This idea is supported by the EPS member envelope. In fact, it is amazing to see such a defined line of demarcation between the intensifying and non-intensifying members since the spread isn't particularly large.



I might compose a new blog post tomorrow. It's been a while partially due to the NAtl insanity and partially due to me becoming much busier with classes resuming for the semester.

[mrbagyo]

Heavy / dense convection is a little bit displaced to the south by Northerly Shear

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxxt03.egrr..txt
Ukmet turning the switch on.

[mrbagyo]

Wont be surprised if there Talim has more than one circulation.
The exposed circulation shown on visible imagery appears to be rotating around a centroid beneath the convection.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 368 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXPOSED LOW LEVEL FLOW, WITH CLOUD LINES IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION FLOWING SOUTHWARD INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
FLARED UP AND DOWN BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED DEPTH AND
DEGREE OF WRAP INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON CURRENT STORM MOTION AND ANALYSIS OF THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 TO T3.0.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINAL AREA
FOR DEVELOPMENT CONTAINING MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW WITH A SINGLE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL WHICH HAVE
STIFLED DEVELOPMENT. TS 20W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, AFTERWARD, THE STR
IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE
OUTFLOW AND AID IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS TALIM WILL PASS ACROSS CENTRAL TAIWAN AND
EXIT INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT BY TAU 96 THEN CONTINUE TO A SECOND AND
FINAL LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA SHORTLY AFTER. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN TURN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
STEERING STR. TS 20W WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER LANDFALL IN
TAIWAN, BUT REMAIN A STRONG TYPHOON AFTER REEMERGENCE INTO THE TAIWAN
STRAIT. AFTER THE LANDFALL IN CHINA, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY
OVER LAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY VARIES AFTER TAU 72,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS continues with a big Taiwan landfall...

[euro6208]