WPAC: TALIM - Post Tropical

[1900hurricane]

[Yellow Evan]

Seems a steady T6.0 although latest frame is T5.5.

[euro6208]

20W TALIM 170914 0000 26.6N 124.6E WPAC 115 937

Now a Cat 4.

[euro6208]

Very impressive. Already looks like a Cat 5.

[PTPatrick]

So , my friend is flying back from Tokyo Saturday evening local time(lands Saturday here in the US midday). I have no idea how to gauge timing of cyclones and can't find a nhc type track map of when it will arrive in central Japan. United is offering a travel waiver to change flights this weekend. But it seems like based on the one map I did find Tokyo may be ok till Sunday?

[1900hurricane]

So , my friend is flying back from Tokyo Saturday evening local time(lands Saturday here in the US midday). I have no idea how to gauge timing of cyclones and can't find a nhc type track map of when it will arrive in central Japan. United is offering a travel waiver to change flights this weekend. But it seems like based on the one map I did find Tokyo may be ok till Sunday?

JMA and JTWC seem to be in good agreement that Talim will make it's closest approach to Tokyo a little before 00Z September 18, which would be within a few hours of sunrise local time on the morning of the 18th. The centerline from both agencies is a ways west of Tokyo at the moment, but the city remains within both cones.

[1900hurricane]

I haven't heard anything about the Japan recon in a while, so I don't know if it's up an running yet, but this seems like a prime candidate.

[PTPatrick]

Cool. I think I am going to have him keep his flight. I think Tokyo would likely not have weather until maybe overnight Saturday at the earliest based on that time line but more like Sunday evening. Unless it's a huge storm. I think the flight is like 5 pm Tokyo time. I suspect Japan would be like the us in keeping airports open as long as reasonably possible based track timing.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM WEST OF KADENA
AB HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO A RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED 32-NM EYE
FEATURE. A 132151Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED DEEP, INTENSE
CONVECTION COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK FIX LOCATIONS FROM ALL
AGENCIES AS WELL AS RADAR FIX DATA FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 20W
LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 2100Z, WHEN AN INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) WAS REPORTED BY PGTW. TY 20W IS
CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN A HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 31 DEG
CELSIUS, STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), ENABLING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TY TALIM REMAINS TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERS, ONE OVER CHINA AND THE OTHER IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN STR LYING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
GENERALLY NORTHWARD UNDER WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
BY TAU 24, THE NORTHERN RIDGE EXTENSION WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EASTWARDS, ALLOWING TY 20W TO BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARDS. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
KYUSHU BEFORE TAU 72. THE LOW SHEAR, HIGH SSTS, AND DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY,
PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
STEADY FOR A SHORT PERIOD AS THE HINDERED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
OFFSET BY STRONGER POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL START TO WEAKEN AS VWS STARTS TO INCREASE BEYOND 40
KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY TALIM WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM ADVECTS LARGE AMOUNTS OF
WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE, THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD, KEEPING TY
20W ON A TRACK WHICH WILL CROSS SOUTHERN HONSHU AND INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN AFTER TAU 72, THEREAFTER CONTINUING OVER HOKKAIDO AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN SEA OF OKHOTSK BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO BECOME
EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 120. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES HONSHU AND
THEN HOKKAIDO DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION COMBINED WITH HIGH VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK BEYOND TAU 72, BUT SHOWS SOME ALONG TRACK (SPEED) DIFFERENCES
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WITH
THE STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Solid eye. Judging that with Irma's, it's likely between 130 to 140 knots.

[1900hurricane]

Nah, 115 kt looks fine. The Dvorak Technique, ADT, and SATCON are all clustered pretty tightly around there. There probably isn't much reason to fear a low bias either given the eye and core size.



JMA is also at 95 kt, which is their assigned T6.0 intensity like 115 kt is for JTWC. Hard to beat that consensus.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

What Talim is doing right now is trying what Noru want to do. Since Noru failed to get further into Cat. 5 near Japan Talim might be the one who does that.

[euro6208]

That is one large and perfect circular eye.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Indeed large with a v/solid looking eyewall.

[euro6208]

It's been stationary before the turn.

[euro6208]

I don't know how these ADT work. It was clearly way below Irma's alongside dvorak but only 5.5? Oh come on...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2017 Time : 091000 UTC
Lat : 27:15:40 N Lon : 124:14:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 951.5mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.1 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 62 km

Center Temp : +16.9C Cloud Region Temp : -57.1C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.8 degrees

****************************************************

[doomhaMwx]

Composite satellite image showing Talim over the East China Sea and Doksuri over the South China Sea today(Sept 14), captured by NASA's AQUA/TERRA satellite/s...

[euro6208]

At 120 knots and forecast for a Cat 3 at landfall for Izumi and Shimo and Kami shima.

WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 20W HAS CONTINUED TO
TURN POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. A LARGE EYE FEATURE, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM IN DIAMETER,
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION IS APPARENT IN RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
SHALLOW IN THE PAST FEW FRAMES, LIKELY INDICATING THAT THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS ENDED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS ALSO FAVORABLY HIGH.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD MAINLAND JAPAN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
TROUGH. SLOW TO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 72
HOURS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER BOTH
COOLER WATER AND LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 21W WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96. FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME AN INTENSE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH EXTENSIVE GALE FORCE WINDS, AS REFLECTED IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICAL FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Talim might be dealing with upwelling. Tops have way warmed.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AT WARNING TIME.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE STORM, BUT A
141255Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A VERY WIDE (60 NM)
BUT WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE, WITH WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND T5.5 (102 KNOTS)
FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 20W APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED TO
MOVE AT A SLIGHTLY QUICKER PACE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, NOW MOVING
TO THE NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS, INDICATING THAT IT HAS OR IS IN THE
PROCESS OF ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM RESIDES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS ARE BEING OFFSET
BY THE UPWELLING OF SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND THE LOSS OF THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, RESULTING IN THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND
SEEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
A. NEAR-TERM FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS IN THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. OTHERWISE,
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN START TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, REMAINING ON A GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 24, AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY OVER WATERS WHICH HAVE COOLED DUE TO UPWELLING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF EQUILIBRIUM AT 80 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND
36, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS, WHILE TAPPING INTO THE
DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
TY 20W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN KYUSHU NEAR TAU
48 AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS KYUSHU AND
HONSHU BEFORE REEMERGING IN THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS
BAROCLINIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 20W WILL RAPIDLY
TRANSIT NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96. FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT
FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME AN
INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH EXTENSIVE GALE FORCE WINDS, AS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN