WPAC: TALIM - Post Tropical

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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON TALIM

#121 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:47 pm

Image
looking like a system not far off decoupling now.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON TALIM

#122 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:21 pm

Pretty epic collapse from 24 hours ago.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON TALIM

#123 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:34 pm

Surprisingly cool looking IR shot though.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON TALIM

#124 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:03 pm

JMA is hung up on constrains very badly right now. They're still at 95 kt, their CI 6.0 estimate. JTWC is also at 95 kt, although their estimate is in 1 minute sustained winds, and even that might be a little high.

TY 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 15 September 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 15 September>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N28°05' (28.1°)
E124°50' (124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°35' (28.6°)
E125°10' (125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N29°25' (29.4°)
E126°10' (126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N32°00' (32.0°)
E130°30' (130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 460 km (250 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N40°40' (40.7°)
E138°55' (138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 540 km (290 NM)
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON TALIM

#125 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:57 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO DECOUPLE
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ROTATION. THOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF ANOTHER EYE
DEVELOPING, THE LLCC IS OFFSET TO THE SOUTH FROM THIS NEW EYE
FEATURE. 142230Z SSMIS 37 GHZ AND 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUPPORTS
THIS PREMISE, WITH THE ASSESSED CENTERS BEING APPROXIMATELY 10 NM
APART. AVAILABLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION, WITH A WEAK BAND STARTING TO FORM AROUND THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE NEW EYE, BUT OTHERWISE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) OF T4.3 (73 KNOTS) AND SATCON OF 69 KNOTS AT 0000Z. TY 20W IS
NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS, INDICATING THAT IT HAS
ROUNDED AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND SHOULD NOW START TO
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
EAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM RESIDES IN AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS ARE
HOWEVER BEING OFFSET BY THE UPWELLING OF SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS
AND THE LOSS OF THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, REMAINING ON A GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 12, AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY OVER WATERS WHICH HAVE COOLED DUE TO UPWELLING. FROM TAU 12
TO 24, TY 20W WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 75 KNOTS, BEFORE SHEAR
INCREASES BEYOND 30 KNOTS, AND WHILE TRANSITING OVER A DEEPER POOL
OF WARM WATER. THROUGH TAU 48 HOWEVER, VWS WILL BEGIN TO DRASTICALLY
INCREASE, LEADING TO A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN KYUSHU BY TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, TY 20W WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN HONSHU AND INTO THE EAST SEA OF JAPAN
BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO
TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS BAROCLINIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 20W WILL RAPIDLY
TRANSIT NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96. FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME AN INTENSE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH EXTENSIVE GALE FORCE WINDS, AS REFLECTED IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON TALIM

#126 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:52 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM NORTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PGTW FIX AND 151526Z
89 AND 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DECOUPLING OF THE LLCC AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS
DECOUPLING IS ATTRIBUTED TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T4.0 (65-77 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 68 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC ANALYSIS SHOWS TY 20W IS ENTERING AN UNFAVORABLE AREA OF
VWS (30-50 KNOTS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR TALIM REMAINS GOOD AS IT
TAPS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEEN
CUT OFF BY A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF TALIM HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ALLOWING
FOR TALIM TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS TALIM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL
ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM. THESE
FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF WINDS THROUGH TAU
12. STRONG VWS (30-50 KNOTS) WILL INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AS TALIM INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IT WILL
ACCELERATE IN FORWARD SPEED BY TAU 36 AND CONTINUING THROUGH TAU 72.
BY TAU 48 TALIM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72. AS THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROGRESSES
THE SIZE OF THE 34 KNOT WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON TALIM

#127 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:57 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR
31//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH RELATIVELY WEAK AND SHALLOW CONVECTION ISOLATED TO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND A 160546Z 37GHZ SSMI
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T4.5 (35 TO 77
KNOTS), A 160509Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS, AND A 160153Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING SEVERAL 50 KNOT WIND BARBS APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
WEST OF A WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE EXTENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS
WELL BEYOND PREVIOUS ESTIMATES, EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
IMAGE, WITH THE WIND RADII NOW REFLECTING THESE DATA. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST HINDERING EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST FEEDING INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE JET WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM. DUE TO THE SLOW
TRACK MOTION OF TY 20W OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, OCEAN UPWELLING
HAS BROUGHT COOLER WATERS TO THE SURFACE HELPING TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SSTS BENEATH TS 20W ARE BEGINNING TO WARM AS THE
SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DUE TO WARMER
SSTS AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND
APPROACHES TS 20W. SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STRONG OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE A BRIEF
INTENSIFICATION PERIOD BEFORE TS 20W MAKES LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 24 TS 20W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
WITH SUBSTANTIAL BAROCLINIC SUPPORT. TS 20W WILL TRANSITION INTO A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 48 MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS
WITH EXTENDED REACH, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS RELATIVELY TIGHT GROUPING WITH
A NOTABLE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS. DESPITE
THIS SHIFT, THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
TOWARD ECMWF.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON TALIM

#128 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:48 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR
33//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY
FROM JMA AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 161309Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE LOWER END OF MULTI
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0
FROM PGTW AND RJTD RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SUPPORTED
BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 55 KNOT WIND BARBS
AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS ENHANCED BY THE
MID-LATITUDE JET WHILE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING SUPPRESSED
BY A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. TS 20W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS SLOWLY TRACKING
THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT
LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. TS TALIM IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEAST
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIMITED INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE. THE INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED BY STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL WHICH WILL
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 6. INITIAL LANDFALL WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH
OF SASEBO, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HONSHU,
AND OUT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN PRIOR TO TAU 24. SECONDARY LANDFALL
WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN HOKKAIDO AROUND TAU 48. TS TALIM WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SEA
OF OKHOTSK AS A COLD CORE LOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL GALE FORCE WIND
FIELD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON TALIM

#129 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:48 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR
34//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEPENING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT THAT IS PARTIALLY
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MULTI-SPECTRAL LOOP AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY AREA
VISIBLE IN ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
55 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE LOWER END OF MULTI AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD RESPECTIVELY, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF
52 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE JET, AND HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ARE BEING OFFSET BY POOR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND HIGH(25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS TALIM IS CONTINUING TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN
THE NEXT THREE HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF SASEBO, AS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM ARE ALREADY OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS KYUSHU, THEN SOUTHERN
HONSHU, AND EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. SLIGHT
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS TS 20W INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN JAPAN. COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH
THE SEA OF JAPAN. INCREASED INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24.
TS 20W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AS
IT BECOMES IMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS TALIM WILL MAKE A
SECONDARY LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN HOKKAIDO BEFORE EXITING OUT INTO
THE SEA OF OKHOSTK AS A COLD CORE LOW WITH A LARGE GALE FORCE WIND
FIELD TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A MINOR SHIFT TO THE EAST IN THE TRACK
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON TALIM

#130 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:50 pm

Image

Makes landfall...
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm TALIM

#131 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:10 am

Image
Image
STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 17 September 2017


<Analysis at 06 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N32°30' (32.5°)
E132°05' (132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
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doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm TALIM

#132 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:31 am

Forecast to become a storm-force ExtraTropical Cyclone near/over Hokkaido and Russia's Sakhalin island on the next 36hrs or so...

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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON TALIM

#133 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 17, 2017 3:04 am

Not much to report from Japan. Mainly power outages and flight/train cancellations. Japan is top notch.
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Re: WPAC: TALIM- Tropical Storm

#134 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:45 am

Severe flash flooding in Saiki City, Oita Prefecture, Kyushu yesterday(Sept 17) due to heavy rainfall dumped by Talim...

 https://twitter.com/takasu917/status/909306041577357312


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Re: WPAC: TALIM - Post-Tropical

#135 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:14 am

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LOW
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 18 September 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 18 September>

Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N47°00' (47.0°)
E143°00' (143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 976 hPa
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