WPAC: TALIM - Post Tropical

[euro6208]

GFS continues with a very strong typhoon for the Southern Islands, 918 mb, a cat 5 as it parellels the chinese coast, and peaks it at 897 mb and devouring Yaku and Tanega shima. Much further south than the models.

[mrbagyo]

Again? LOL

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
CONVECTIVE AREA CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 121712Z 183BT ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED
ON MULTI AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65-77
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). TYPHOON TALIM CURRENTLY HAS A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STEERING STR. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TURN TO A NORTHERN TRACK. AFTER
TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE, EVENTUALLY TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD. PERSISTENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS
BY TAU 48. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS THE SYSTEM TRACKING 100 NM
OFF THE COAST OF CHINA, WHICH LIMITS LAND INTERACTION BASED WEAKENING
THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48, AFTERWARD, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS GRADUALLY SPREAD AS THE SYSTEM
RECURVES AND TRACKS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY TALIM WILL ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST. INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE PASSING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 96,
THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN AND TRACK OVER
HONSHU AS IT BEGINS EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). LAND INTERACTION
COMBINED WITH INCREASING VWS AND CONTINUAL INTERACTION WITH THE
MID-LATITDE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN THE LATER TAUS
OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
AFTER TAU 72 WITH HWRF TRACKING NORTH OF SASEBO AND NAVGEM TRACKING
SOUTH OF JAPAN ALL TOGETHER. BASED ON THIS SPREAD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

That's one weird looking eye.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

looks like TALI M is trying too oranize the eyewall,with nothing really i can see too hinder.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[doomhaMwx]

The Miyako islands are currently being raked by Typhoon Talim as its eye/center passes just to their east...



The airport in Shimojishima island recorded a gust of 165kph (45.8 m/s) from the NNW @ 2:40pm JST this Wednesday afternoon... A station in Miyakojima island also recorded a gust of 157kph (43.6 m/s) and a pressure near 972mb @ around 3pm JST...
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/map65. ... eaCode=219

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 28-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5
(77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
IS TRACKING THROUGH VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TYPHOON TALIM CURRENTLY HAS A STRONG POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST.
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE ENHANCED
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY TALIM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN KYUSHU SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AND TRACK ACROSS
AND INTO HONSHU. INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL, TALIM IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
JAPAN, HIGH VWS, INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND
OVERLAND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Using SATCON which performed best with Irma and on par with recon but still on the low side, it is at 95 knots or already a Cat 3. 20 to 25 knots too low.

SATCON: MSLP = 957 hPa MSW = 94 knots

[madness]

http://typhoon.zjwater.gov.cn/default.aspx
NMC - China already has it at 955HPa
sustained 42m/s

JMA updated at 10Z to 950HPa

[euro6208]

EURO peaks this at 931 mb as it starts to recurve towards Japan. 949 mb landfall for Kagoshima. GFS at 926 mb.

[euro6208]

A cat 3. Don't let the convection fool you. We've seen it all season in other basins this year. Losing ACE on this one.

[NotoSans]

JMA up to 950hPa/85kt but looks a bit too high based on surface observations. I would say 955hPa/80kt would be a more reasonable intensity estimate, which will correspond to a 90kt cat2 typhoon based on the 1-minute scale. Definitely has intensified some after the system passed close to Miyakojima though.

[mrbagyo]

Lowest pressure recorded was 966.9 mb in Miyakojina (and that wasnt in the eye)
Highest sustained wind was 37.1 m/s or 133 kph / 72 knots (10min) while highest gust recorded was 50.9 m/s (183.24 kph) at Shimojishima Airport at the "weak" side of the eyewall. RFQ missed the islands.

JTWC's 75 knots indeed seem low.
Should probably be 90 knots (1min)

[1900hurricane]

90 kt is what JTWC has for 12Z.

20W TALIM 170913 1200 25.5N 125.3E WPAC 90 959

[euro6208]

20W TALIM 170913 1800 26.0N 124.9E WPAC 105 946

Cat 3...



I suspect it could alot be stronger. Eye warming and the tops cooling rapidly.

[euro6208]

New peak of 125 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159 NM WEST OF KADENA
AB HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO A RAGGED 38-NM EYE FEATURE. A
131536Z GPM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED AN EYEWALL OF VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION NEARLY SURROUNDING THE ENTIRE EYE, THOUGH WITH A
SMALL BREAK INTO THE EAST SIDE. BASED ON SUBSEQUENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM MAY BE UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW FORMING AGAIN ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK FIX LOCATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES AS
WELL AS RADAR FIX DATA FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
105 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 TO 125 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
TY 20W IS LOCATED IN A NEARLY OPTIMUM ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY HIGH
SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 31 DEG CELSIUS, STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW COMBINED WITH A POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM, AND
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), LEADING TO THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WITNESSED OVER THE PAST 18-24 HOURS. TY TALIM IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN A
COL AREA BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERS, ONE OVER
CHINA AND THE OTHER IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND AN EXTENSION OF THE
EASTERN STR LYING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWARD IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH, NORTHWARD
MOTION WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. BY
TAU 36, THE NORTHERN RIDGE EXTENSION WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EASTWARDS, ALLOWING TY 20W TO BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARDS. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
KYUSHU AROUND TAU 72. THE LOW SHEAR, HIGH SSTS, AND DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY,
PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS AND THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS CHOKED OFF BY A RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS
TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT IN
THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE
SOUTH, INDICATING A SHARPER RECURVE AND KEEPING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE
OF KYUSHU.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY TALIM WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM ADVECTS LARGE
AMOUNTS OF WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE, THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
BUILD, KEEPING TY 20W ON A TRACK WHICH WILL CROSS HONSHU AND INTO
THE SEA OF JAPAN BY TAU 96, THEREAFTER CONTINUING OVER HOKKAIDO AN
INTO THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO BECOME
EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 120. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES HONSHU AND
THEN HOKKAIDO DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION COMBINED WITH HIGH VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK ACROSS JAPAN, BUT SHOWS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES
ALONG THE TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. WITH THE STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, NOTWITHSTANDING THE SPEED DIFFERENCES,
THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 132102

A. TYPHOON 20W (TALIM)

B. 13/2040Z

C. 26.30N

D. 124.80E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET YIELDS 5.5, WHILE PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE