WPAC: TALIM - Post Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR
009//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 477 NM NORTH
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEEP CONVECTIVE CIRRUS CANOPY OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 101755Z AMSU 89 GHZ PASS INDICATES THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT,
HOWEVER THE LOW RESOLUTION OFFERS LITTLE HELP FOR POSITIONING THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
CURRENT STORM MOTION AND AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 101501Z GPM CENTER
THAT WAS PARTIALLY OBSCURED DUE TO DEEP CONVECTION OVERWHELMING THE
LIQUID WATER EMISSION. A 101855Z SSMIS PASS JUST ARRIVED,
INDICATING THE LLCC MAY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AS WELL AS A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGESTING A SMALL SWATH OF 45 KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW IS CONSTRAINED TO AN EQUATORWARD
CHANNEL DUE TO A LINE OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH. TS 20W IS
TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR. MARGINAL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO RECEDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE
OUTFLOW AND AID IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL
OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN. HWRF GUIDANCE INDICATES A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 72 WILL ALSO ENHANCE OUTFLOW.
THE 72 HOUR FORECAST INTENSITY IS 105 KNOTS, HOWEVER, PRIOR TO
LANDFALL THE PEAK MAY BE HIGHER. INTENSITY MODELS HAVE PERSISTENTLY
CALLED FOR A PEAK BETWEEN 110 TO 120 KNOTS. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS TALIM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN,
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, AS TS 20W TRACKS ACROSS THE
TAIWAN STRAIT, INCREASING VWS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO A SECOND LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA.
AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING STR, HOWEVER, MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH
VWS WILL ERODE THE LLCC OVER LAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

Interestingly, this is now officially Typhoon Talim.

[mrbagyo]

Interestingly, this is now officially Typhoon Talim.

Oh wow, didn't expect that from JMA

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH
INVEST 97W APPROXIMATELY 600 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN 110018Z AMSU
89 GHZ PASS REVEALS THE LLCC, DEFINED BY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING IN
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. 110019Z ASCAT
AMBIGUITIES REFLECT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION, WITH SOME 50 KNOT
BARBS NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE DATA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT AND AMSU INPUTS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE
OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 TO 4.0 (45-65 KNOTS),
WITH THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE AT 55 KNOTS, AND SUPPORTED BY
THE ASCAT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
IMPROVING AS THE ALIGNMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IS DEVELOPING 675 NM TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE. TS 20W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN PRIOR TO TAU 72. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, INCLUDING POTENTIALLY
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HWRF GUIDANCE INDICATES A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 72 WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE OUTFLOW. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST INTENSITY IS REVISED UPWARD
TO 115 KNOTS, HOWEVER, PRIOR TO LANDFALL THE PEAK MAY BE HIGHER.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS TALIM CROSSES OVER THE TERRAIN OF TAIWAN.
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH A TAU 72
SPREAD OF 135 NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS THE HWRF, WHICH IS AT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL OVER
TAIWAN, RESULTING IN HIGHER INTENSITIES AT TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS TALIM WILL TRACK ACROSS TAIWAN STRAIGHT,
WITH LIMITED RE-INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED PRIOR TO A SECOND LANDFALL
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING STR,
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE INDICATING THE LLCC WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD IN THE TIMING
AND EXTENT OF THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 72, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 110319
TCSWNP

A. 20W (TALIM)

B. 11/0230Z

C. 18.8N

D. 135.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...TALIM HAS LESS SHEAR IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION THAN 24 HOURS
PREVIOUS WITH PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC ON NW EDGE OF DENSE OVERCAST. COLD
CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CENTER HAS IMPROVED NOTICEABLY
AND THERE IS NOW 6 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG SPIRAL FOR DT=3.5 WITH .5 ADDED
FOR W BAND. MET=3.0 BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPING TREND. PT=3.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI


TPPN10 PGTW 110303

A. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM)

B. 11/0220Z

C. 18.48N

D. 135.58E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT YIELD 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Latest track shifts to the north with Taipei in the firing line.

WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SPED UP A BIT AS IT
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONVECTION HAS
FURTHER DEEPENED AND APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF DEVELOPING AN
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 110522Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.5 TO 4.0 (55-65 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING AS THE
ALIGNMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE AND A TUTT CELL IS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT 30 CELSIUS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE. TS 20W IS TRACKING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN PRIOR TO TAU 60. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, INCLUDING POTENTIALLY
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS - POSSIBLY HIGHER - PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS TALIM CROSSES
OVER THE TERRAIN OF TAIWAN. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS TALIM WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA THEN RECURVE NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
DUE TO WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY
OVER LAND BEFORE IT EXITS BACK INTO WATER, IN THE YELLOW SEA, AS A
25-KNOT SYSTEM, AT BEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES
SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE NORTHEASTWARD
TURN AFTER TAU 72, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

GFS totally misses out on Taiwan. Recurves it east of China and into Japan. The Yaeyama Islands/Iriomote won't be so lucky.

Peaks it at 906 mb on top of the islands.

[euro6208]

HWRF peaks this at 932 mb with winds of 115 to 120 knots after devastation Miyako Jima similiar in track to GFS.

[doomhaMwx]

So the north to northeastward turn will either occur after the system makes landfall over Taiwan and/or eastern China, or before it even reaches these areas…

[mrbagyo]

latest GPM pass captured a developing eye feature.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 411 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE VISIBLE IN AN
111753Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 3.5 TO 4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HAS A
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TS 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF TAIWAN AROUND TAU 48, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AROUND TAU 60. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION,
PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48 PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL, TS TALIM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARDS, THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SPREAD AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES. THE PRINCIPLE
OUTLIER, HWRF, HAS THE SYSTEM RECURVING MUCH MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE
CONSENSUS AND NOT MAKING LANDFALL. THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH LANDFALL AND INITIAL RECURVE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS TALIM WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE AND EXIT INTO
THE YELLOW SEA AROUND TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN. TRACKING OVER LAND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED THE SYSTEM AND AS IT ENTERS THE YELLOW SEA IT WILL BE A 30
KNOT SYSTEM AND BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE NORTHEASTWARD
TURN AFTER TAU 72, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Still dealing with northerly shear, but coming together.

[euro6208]

20W TALIM 170912 0000 21.5N 130.6E WPAC 65 986

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED CLOUD FILLED
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE VISIBLE IN THE LOOP AND AN 112233Z 89GHZ
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.5 TO
4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TY 20W CURRENTLY HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TYPHOON TALIM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED. THE SYSTEM IS NOW
FORECAST TO UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT 24
HOURS CAUSING THE PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 48 TO BE 115 KNOTS. THE
FORECAST TRACK NOW REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF CHINA LIMITING THE
AMOUNT OF DISSIPATION CAUSED BY LAND INTERACTION.
B. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OF TAIWAN AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST,
SKIRTING THE COAST OF CHINA SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING A TUTT CELL LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM, WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TY
TALIM WILL WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST CHINA. PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARDS, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SPREAD AS
THE SYSTEM RECURVES. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS ARE HWRF AND ECMWF,
WHICH HAVE THE SYSTEM RECURVING MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE CONSENSUS AND
NOT MAKING LANDFALL. WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS WELL AS TIGHTENING
THE RECURVE. THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE CONSENSUS WALKING
TO THE EAST WITH EACH NEW RUN LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY TALIM WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE AND TRACK TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST. AROUND TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEGIN EXTRA
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TY 20W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN
JAPAN PRIOR TO TAU 120 WITH FORECAST INTENSITY OF AROUND 50 KNOTS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 72. THE SPREAD COMBINED WITH THE
CONTINUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

It's gonna be a rough day for the Southern Islands. Possible Cat 3.

WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN EYE FEATURE HAS SINCE BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON CLOSED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURES IN THE 120443Z
ATMS AND 120640Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0
AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TY 20W CURRENTLY HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO
THE EAST. TYPHOON TALIM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF
A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TURN MORE
POLEWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TY TALIM WILL WEAKEN
AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST CHINA AND VWS INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
GRADUALLY SPREAD AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY TALIM WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND
INTERACT WITH THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH, AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL
MAKE LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU AND TRACK OVER SHIKOKU AND HONSHU AND BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 120. CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, INCREASING VWS, AND LAND INTERACTION
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DOWN TO 50 KNOTS BY END OF
FORECAST. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Interestingly, Taiwan send it's ASTRA craft to Talim and here you can see where they drop dropsondes around the typhoon. When will we ever bring back full time recon?

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

NAVGEM and EURO has almost similiar tracks. Almost stalls it off south of Shanghai before a hard turn to the right striking Kagoshima and Tokyo. EURO peaks it at 936 mb before Kagoshima.