WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 110959
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 11/0830Z

C. 14.8N

D. 124.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...INITIAL CLASSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS SHEARED
AND DEFINED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES THAT ARE LESS THAN 75 NM
FROM THE COLD OVERCAST WHICH IS VERY SMALL (LIMITED CONVECTION). THIS
GIVES DT=1.0. MET=1.0. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI

[euro6208]

Another one for Hong Kong?!? EURO has this strengthening over the P.I islands east of Manila.

982 mb peak



Landfall

[euro6208]

GFS agrees on the EURO run on track but differs significantly on intensity. It has a possible Cat 5 for Hainan Island. Big change from the 00Z which makes a close Hong Kong landfall.

929 mb.

[Extratropical94]

This area has been under a TCFA and should be upgraded to TD 21W by the JTWC shortly.

WP, 21, 2017091118, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1228E, 25, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 130, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpF72017 to wp212017,

WTPN21 PGTW 111900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 123.2E TO 17.1N 118.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8N 122.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 126.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.8E, APPROXIMATELY
105 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER AND WELL DEFINED BANDS
OF CONVECTIONS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AN 111541Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS GOOD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE AND SHOWS VERY WELL DEFINED BANDING. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT AS THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE DISTURBANCE, SOME HAVING IT TRACK ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND CONSOLIDATING, OTHERS HAVE
IT MOVING TO THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH 20W (TALIM).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121900Z.//
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

JMA expects a weak TS out of this invest.

TD
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 11 September 2017
<Analysis at 18 UTC, 11 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N14°35' (14.6°)
E123°50' (123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 12 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°35' (15.6°)
E122°10' (122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 12 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°25' (16.4°)
E121°00' (121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[Extratropical94]

WTPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.8N 122.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 122.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.5N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.4N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.3N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.3N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.6N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.3N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.8N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 122.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). AN 111541Z 89 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG OUTFLOW ON
THE EQUATORWARD AND WESTERN SIDE, IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TD 21W IS TRACKING
QUICKLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 21W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
LAYERED STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AND
DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF TD 21W TO TS 20W, NO BINARY INTERACTION IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHERN PHILIPPINES SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, TRACK NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE PHILIPPINES AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA PRIOR TO TAU 24.
ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CAUSE STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL PREVENT DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER IS THE NAVGEM SOLUTION, WHICH HAS 21W TRACKING
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PHILIPPINES. THE
REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO LEND HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 21W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED STR
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TD 21W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72, PEAKING AT
50 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96,
WEST OF HONG KONG. ONCE OVER LAND, THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM, COMPLETELY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM MODEL, THE
REMAINING DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO CHINA, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 52 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD BUT
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 112219Z 89 GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT WITH SOME FORMATIVE BANDING PRESENT. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON
THE LOWER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD
RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINES. WHILE
THE LAND INTERACTION IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
STRONG OUTFLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD AND WESTERN SIDE, IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TD 21W
IS TRACKING QUICKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 21W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. TD 21W IS IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO TY 20W, DESPITE THE LIMITED SEPARATION, NO BINARY
INTERACTION IS ANTICIPATED. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINES AND WILL TRACK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINES AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 12. ONCE IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS. THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM WILL PREVENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LIMIT OVERALL
INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER IS THE
NAVGEM SOLUTION, WHICH HAS 21W TRACKING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS, THEN TRACKING NORTH AND MAKING LANDFALL EAST OF HONG
KONG. THE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 21W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING EXTENSION OF THE STR LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST. PRIOR TO TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY
BEFORE TAU 96 WEST OF HONG KONG. ONCE OVER LAND, THE RUGGED TERRAIN
OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM, COMPLETELY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM MODEL, THE
REMAINING DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO CHINA LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Extensive flooding in Quezon province verifies the rainfalln projections
http://www.interaksyon.com/dramatic-rescue-army-pnp-civilian-rescue-units-pluck-25-people-from-roof-of-bus-swamped-by-floods-in-quezon/

Padre Burgos, Quezon Province

[doomhaMwx]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[quote="mrbagyo"]Extensive flooding in Quezon province verifies the rainfalln projections
http://www.interaksyon.com/dramatic-rescue-army-pnp-civilian-rescue-units-pluck-25-people-from-roof-of-bus-swamped-by-floods-in-quezon/

Those types of flash flooding events from the mountains can be the worst kind. The water can come
down the rivers at a tremulous pace and inundate just like a tsunami.

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Higher peak of 55 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 003A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO RE-CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AFTER IT TRACKED ACROSS CENTRAL LUZON. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. IT IS ALSO TRACKING OVER WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 21W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR
WHICH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL CAUSE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GENERAL AGREEMENT, HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 21W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, ACROSS HAINAN AND THE GULF OF TONKIN
BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. INTERACTION
WITH TERRAIN WILL CAUSE ITS GRADUAL DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION
OVER LAND BY TAU 120. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD
AFTER TAU 72, LENDING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

On satellite it looks like 21W passed Luzon.

[mrbagyo]

My obs matches JMA's estimated pressure very well
ref elevation:39ft

[euro6208]

The best model for intensity has a Cat 3 major. The Maximum Potential Intensity from Emanuel has a pressure of 840 mb and 200 knots off the coast of Hainan before landfall.

[euro6208]

It's going to be very close for Hainan. EURO has it passing south of Hainan but just barely 962 mb before hitting Vietnam.

[euro6208]

After runs of showing a Cat 5, GFS only brings a 969 mb typhoon into Taiwan.

[tatlopuyo]

This system flooded our place really bad earlier.

[mrbagyo]

1719

TS 1719 (Doksuri)
Issued at 13:30 UTC, 12 September 2017
<Analysis at 12 UTC, 12 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°40' (14.7°)
E119°00' (119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 13 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E117°40' (117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°55' (15.9°)
E116°10' (116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°00' (17.0°)
E112°50' (112.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°35' (18.6°)
E109°40' (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)