EPAC: OTIS - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:46 am

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Deep convection associated with the depression has increased
this morning, with the low-level center estimated to be near the
middle of the thunderstorm activity. Based on the improved
organization of the cloud pattern since the time of the ASCAT pass
overnight, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 30 kt.

The depression is over relatively warm SSTs and embedded in fairly
low wind shear conditions, but it also is situated in a dry
atmospheric environment. These mixed factors should cause the
system to remain relatively steady state for the next few days,
though it is possible that the cyclone becomes a tropical storm
during that time frame. Beyond a few days, the wind shear is
expected to increase and SSTs lower along the expected path. These
more hostile conditions should cause the depression to weaken and
become a remnant low in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is
an update of the previous one, and in line with the bulk of the
guidance.

The tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering
currents. The models are in agreement that the depression should
turn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves
along the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system
loses convection, a turn back toward the west is predicted. Only
minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 15.8N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.3N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 16.9N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 17.6N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#42 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:55 pm

This is a TS but too bad SAB keeps coming in with T 1.0's..

Image

Shear has dropped and it is over warm waters. Only prohibitive factor is the dry air, but seems to be doing fine so far. Euro consistently makes this a strong TS. So I wouldn't say a hurricane is out of the question.
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#43 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:52 pm

...DEPRESSION FINALLY ELEVATED TO TROPICAL STORM OTIS...

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The system has been maintaining a small area of deep convection
near the low-level center for the past several hours. The latest
Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin have increased, and now support raising the
initial intensity to 35 kt, making the system a tropical storm.

Otis is expected to remain over 27 deg C waters and in a low
wind shear environment for the next couple of days, and this should
allow the cyclone to at least maintain its strength. Beyond that
time, an increase in shear, drier air, and cooler waters along the
expected track should cause weakening, and Otis is now
forecast to become a remnant low by day 4. The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, based on the
higher initial intensity.

The tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering
currents. The models remain in agreement that the storm should
turn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves
along the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system
loses convection, a turn back toward the west or west-southwest is
predicted. The NHC track forecast is a little to the west of the
previous one in the short term to account for the more westward
initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 15.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.0N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 16.4N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 17.2N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 17.9N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 18.0N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z 15.8N 133.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:56 pm

The storm finally made it! Let's give it a heartfelt congratulations!
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:51 am

This storm made me think of a new stat - what is the longest a tropical cyclone has stayed a depression before becoming a named storm for the first time? Interesting little bugger.
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:55 am

Otis developed an eye, so he is maybe a hurricane now.

Image
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:41 am

Wow, talk about transitioning from underachiever to overachiever.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:22 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Otis continues to gradually strengthen. Satellite images show hints
of an eye starting to form, and convection just outside the
center has been increasing during the past few hours. A blend of
the TAFB Dvorak classification and ADT values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin supports increasing the winds to 50 kt,
though this could be conservative based on the current structure.

Otis has a little more time to strengthen since the storm is
expected to remain in an environment of low wind shear and over 27
deg C waters. After 24 hours, however, lower SSTs, drier air, and
an increase in wind shear should cause weakening. Even though SSTs
warm along the expected path by the end of the forecast period, the
models continue to show Otis decaying due to unfavorable atmospheric
conditions. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by day
4 based on the global models, but this is a low confidence
prediction at this time.

The tropical storm has now turned to the north, as expected, at a
very slow forward speed. This slow north to north-northwest motion
is expected during the next 36 hours while Otis moves on the west
side of a weak mid-level ridge. Thereafter, a faster west
and west-southwest motion is expected when the weakening cyclone
becomes more influenced by the low-level tradewind flow. Only
minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this
one lies close to the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.3N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 17.1N 127.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 18.9N 128.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 18.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 17.0N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z 15.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:46 pm

5 hours old:

Image

Clearly shows an eye with 60% complete eyewall. More than likely this is a hurricane now.
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:30 pm

:uarrow: And probably nearing major hurricane status.
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:31 pm

EP, 15, 201709171800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1690N, 12720W, , 1, 77, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, AS, VIM, 1, 4545 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=5.5 BO EYE MET=2.5 PT=3.0 FTBO RI
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:42 pm

The 50 kt estimate at the 15Z advisory is a joke. Otis could be pushing major hurricane intensity right now. An incredible display of rapid intensification and was very unexpected.
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:44 pm

Looks like a pinhole eye developed to me. What a weird storm, a depression for days and days then shortly thereafter jumps to probably major hurricane intensity overnight.
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:45 pm

EP, 15, 2017091718, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1273W, 70, 988, HU
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:50 pm

The 70kt intensity on 18z best track is way too low. No way this is only 5kts stronger than Maria right now, likely at least 95kt or higher.

Image
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:50 pm

To me even 70kts is rather conservative given the structure over the last two or three hours. Ah well.
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Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:54 pm

Agree with you all that this is very near or at major hurricane status now.

SouthDadeFish wrote:The 50 kt estimate at the 15Z advisory is a joke. Otis could be pushing major hurricane intensity right now. An incredible display of rapid intensification and was very unexpected.


It's mind boggling how these EPac systems are capable of developing and intensifying despite being embedded in dry/stable atmospheric conditions.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:56 pm

supercane4867 wrote:The 70kt intensity on 18z best track is way too low. No way this is only 5kts stronger than Maria right now, likely at least 95kt or higher.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/aYuDBt6.gif[img]


Sheesh... talk about RI... From a tropical depression to a major hurricane in 24 hours. Has this ever happened before? Too bad satellite estimates are playing catch up and ADT can't resolve the eye.
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:The 70kt intensity on 18z best track is way too low. No way this is only 5kts stronger than Maria right now, likely at least 95kt or higher.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/aYuDBt6.gif[img]


Sheesh... talk about RI... From a tropical depression to a major hurricane in 24 hours. Has this ever happened before? Too bad satellite estimates are playing catch up and ADT can't resolve the eye.

Off the top of my head, Genevieve '14 is the only system that comes to mind.
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Re: EPAC: OTIS - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:02 pm

Image

Image
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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