EPAC: OTIS - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:19 am

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Shortwave and BD-curve infrared imagery earlier showed a deep
convective burst with -70C cold tops near the surface center. That
convective mass has since been displaced about 90 miles west of the
exposed center and has warmed and diminished. Therefore, the
initial intensity is held at 25 kt and agrees with the Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB. The intensity forecast has
become a bit problematic. Earlier SHIPS model runs indicated that
the shear would either persist or increase. The latest run,
however, reveals the shear decreasing considerably after 48 hours.
On the other hand, the GFS, ECMWF, and the LGEM intensity guidance
all show the depression gradually weakening and becoming a remnant
low in 5 days or less, while the UKMET strengthens the cyclone to a
tropical storm around day 3. A third scenario is indicated in the
HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) technique, which is similar to the
GFS, ECMWF and the LGEM, but shows dissipation in less than 48
hours. The NHC forecast reflects some increase in intensity at the
24 hour period, but after that time, it shows weakening to a remnant
low in 3 days, out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF global models,
the LGEM, and the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) technique.

The motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/13 kt. A low- to
mid-level subtropical ridge extending over the eastern Pacific from
the Baja California peninsula is forecast to build slightly
southwestward later today influencing the depression to turn
west-southwestward. At the 36 hour period, the cyclone should
gradually turn back toward the west followed by a northwestward
motion around 72 hours in response to an increasing weakness in the
ridge along 123W. Around day 4, the depression is forecast to
turn back toward the west within the low-level trade wind flow.
The official forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast
and is in the middle of the ECMWF and HCCA solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 15.8N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.1N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.3N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 15.9N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z 15.9N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:55 am

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017

The first-light visible imagery from the GOES-16 satellite depicts
a tightly wound low-level center with all of the deep convection
west of the center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt - just a
bit higher than previously, based upon the TAFB Dvorak
classification.

The dislocation of the deep convection is symptomatic of the
moderate to strong vertical shear, forced by the upper-level ridge
to the north of the depression. Moderate shear should continue for
the next couple of days, limiting the opportunity for the system to
intensify. In about two days, the depression may begin interacting
with a developing tropical cyclone to its east. One plausible
scenario is for the system to be absorbed by the new tropical
cyclone. The official forecast instead shows a gradual weakening
as the depression tracks slowly westward, due to an increasingly
hostile upper-level environment. The intensity forecast is a
little above the previous one in respect to the slightly improved
structure shown this morning and is closest to the HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach.

The depression is moving toward the west at 13 kt, primarily being
steered by the deep-layer ridge to its north. The depression
should continue moving in this general direction at a slower rate
of forward speed during the next couple of days. At days three and
four, the low-level steering flow should weaken due to the
developing tropical cyclone to the depression's east. The official
track forecast is based upon the model consensus minus the UKMET
(whose tracker latches on to the developing tropical cyclone
instead) and is east of that from the previous advisory. This track
prediction has higher uncertainty than usual because of the
divergence of plausible outcomes for the depression.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 15.6N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 15.2N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 14.9N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 14.9N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 15.6N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 15.7N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:16 pm

The convection it's putting out is far more"intense" compared to yesterday but with the shear the LLC remains exposed. It will come down to the ascat showing tropical storm force winds or not whether this is ever named.
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:38 pm

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 130242
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Although deep convection associated with the depression has
increased since the previous advisory, it remains displaced
to the west of the center due to about 15 kt of easterly wind
shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with a
blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and ADT values
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

The current wind shear affecting the depression is expected to
persist overnight, so little change in intensity is forecast during
that time. Thereafter, the global models show the upper-level wind
pattern becoming a little less hostile over the depression. This
slightly more favorable atmospheric environment combined with warm
SSTs should allow the system to strengthen a little. Earlier
model solutions showed the depression interacting with a developing
system to its east, but the guidance is showing less interaction
now. Based on the model trends and the expected environmental
conditions, the NHC intensity forecast no longer calls for the
depression to become a remnant low, and instead predicts the system
to remain a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. This forecast
is in good agreement with the latest models, except at day 5 where
it lies on the low side of the guidance.

Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving just south of
due west, 265 degrees, at 11 kt. A continued west motion, but at
a much slower pace is expected during the next few days as a
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone weakens. By the end of
the forecast period, the system could become stationary when it is
expected to be embedded in very weak steering currents. The NHC
track forecast is a little faster than the previous one to come in
line with the latest model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.4N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 15.2N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 15.5N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 15.5N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 15.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 15.6N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:23 am

ne Center Miami FL EP152017
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The overall convective pattern of the depression has changed little
since the previous advisory and remains sheared to the west of the
exposed surface circulation. Displaced intermittent bursts of deep
convection with cloud tops colder than -70C yield an initial shear
pattern intensity estimate of 30 kt, and this is further supported
by a 0540 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass which suggests that the
depression is just below tropical storm strength. The Decay-SHIPS
intensity model and the large-scale deterministic guidance show the
shear gradually diminishing through the entire forecast period.
Accordingly, the official forecast reflects slow strengthening
through 3 days, then little change thereafter, which is just below
the HCCA, DSHP, and the better performing IVCN multi-model
consensus.

A 0201 UTC WindSat image and a 0247 UTC AMSU 89 GHZ composite
overpass were helpful in estimating the position and the initial
motion which is westward, or 270/8 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. A weakening
low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north should steer the
depression generally westward through 48 hours, but with a slight
reduction in speed with time. Beyond 48 hours, the cyclone becomes
trapped in a much weaker steering flow induced by a mid-level ridge
between the depression, a developing system to the east, and a
building high from the northwest. Subsequently, the official
forecast indicates very little motion, or a meander through day 5.
The NHC track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous
package beyond 24 hours out of respect for the HFIP Corrected
Consensus technique and the ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 14.9N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.1N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 15.4N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 15.2N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 15.2N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:51 pm

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The cloud pattern has not become any better organized since
yesterday and consists of a low-level center in between two
shapeless blobs of deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers have
decreased, but the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. There are no
obvious reasons for why the cyclone will not intensify. The shear
is forecast to decrease in a couple of days and the ocean is warm.
On this basis, little change is anticipated during the next 24 to 36
hours, and some slight strengthening is forecast thereafter. The
depression still has the opportunity to become a tropical storm.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 8 kt. The depression is embedded within light easterly
flow south of a subtropical ridge. Global models indicate that
steering currents will remain weak, and this flow will only provide
a very slow westward motion through the next 5 days. The NHC
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, but the envelope
broadens by the end of the forecast period, implying less confidence
in 4 and 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.0N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 15.3N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 15.5N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 15.5N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 15.3N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:17 pm

This might end up as Otis IMO.
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:24 pm

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The cloud pattern is still disorganized and the circulation appears
to be somewhat elongated. Most of the deep convection is located to
the southwest of the center due to some moderate northeasterly
shear. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed and consequently, the
initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. There are no obvious reasons
why the cyclone will not intensify a little. The shear is forecast
to decrease in a couple of days and the ocean is warm. On this
basis, little change is anticipated during the next 12 hours or so
and some slight strengthening is forecast thereafter, and the
depression is still expected to become a tropical storm.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 275
degrees at 6 kt. The depression is embedded within light easterly
flow south of a subtropical ridge. Global models indicate that the
steering currents will weaken even more, and this flow will only
produce a very slow westward motion through the next 3 days. After
that time, the cyclone will probably begin to meander as the
steering flow collapses completely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.2N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 15.4N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 15.5N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 16.0N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#29 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:28 pm

Potential to be our second basin crosser if the GFS is right.
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#30 Postby Iune » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Potential to be our second basin crosser if the GFS is right.


Basin crosser as in Central Pacific? Or do you mean that the GFS is predicting 15E to go into the Western Pacific as well?
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#31 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:00 pm

Iune wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Potential to be our second basin crosser if the GFS is right.


Basin crosser as in Central Pacific? Or do you mean that the GFS is predicting 15E to go into the Western Pacific as well?


Central Pacific.
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:21 pm

Probably a tropical storm now even if Dvorak doesn't explicitly support it.
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#33 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:10 am

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The depression continues to be disorganized with the low- and
middle-level centers well separated due to shear. This can be
clearly observed on conventional imagery as well as microwave data.
Given the lack of organization, the initial intensity is kept at 30
kt, and no change in strength is anticipated during the next 24
hours or so. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease, and
the depression could become better organized and reach tropical
storm status. This is the scenario provided by most of the guidance.

My best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 285 degrees at 4 kt. The depression continues to be trapped
within weak steering flow, and only a small westward drift is
forecast. In fact, by the end of the forecast period, the steering
currents are expected to collapse, and the cyclone will probably
begin to meander. The NHC forecast follows most of the guidance up
to 4 days. After that time, models diverge considerably and the
forecast is highly uncertain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.5N 124.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.5N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:58 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIFTEEN EP152017 09/14/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 40 46 49 52 53 51 49 45
V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 40 46 49 52 53 51 49 45
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 34 35 36 35 34 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 9 8 7 6 10 9 13 15 14 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 -1 0 -1 4 5
SHEAR DIR 93 83 65 57 59 58 71 84 78 72 54 63 68
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 143 141 139 137 136 136 137 138 138 135
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 59 58 58 57 54 55 54 50 48 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 15 16 17 18 18 18 16 16 15
850 MB ENV VOR 13 -1 -9 -17 -18 -22 -12 -12 0 0 -4 14 15
200 MB DIV 35 21 10 8 8 -9 -29 -9 21 12 15 10 -1
700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0
LAND (KM) 1506 1540 1575 1614 1654 1703 1737 1737 1737 1737 1745 1710 1637
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.9 16.8
LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.1 123.6 124.1 124.6 125.2 125.6 125.6 125.6 125.6 125.7 125.7 125.6
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 3 4
HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 10

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 19. 22. 23. 21. 19. 15.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 122.6

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 2.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 2.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 137.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.73 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 12.1% 9.2% 7.1% 0.0% 10.9% 11.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.9% 4.7% 3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 3.9% 3.9% 0.2%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:57 am

Fifteen-E is sure taking her sweet time. Two storms already beat her on the name department.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#36 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:53 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 141434
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The depression is still poorly organized, as about 15 kt of easterly
shear continues to separate the low- and mid-level circulation
centers. The initial intensity remains 30 kt given that the cloud
pattern has not changed much since the previous advisory. The SHIPS
model shows the shear relaxing by 24 hours, and with the cyclone
over 27-28C water, some slow strengthening is predicted. The
cyclone begins to move into a drier and more stable airmass by days
4 and 5, with the shear possibly increasing again, so some weakening
is expected by day 5.

The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 280/04 since there
haven't been any recent microwave passes. The depression is
currently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. This feature
weakens with time, leaving the cyclone is a region of weak
steering currents, with most of the guidance favoring some slow
poleward motion late in the period. The new NHC track forecast is
close to the latest HFIP consensus aid HCCA and is of low
confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.4N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.7N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 15.6N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 15.6N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 16.1N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 16.8N 125.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#37 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:31 pm

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150249
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Convection has increased a little near the alleged center of the
depression, but a low-level center is difficult to identify in
recent AMSR and SSMIS imagery. A larger SW-NE elongated
circulation is still present, however, and it is possible that
the center is reforming closer to the convection within the larger
cyclonic envelope. In an absence of any other data to use, the
intensity has been held at 30 kt since Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB are unchanged from 6 hours ago.

Assuming the center will soon consolidate under the convection, some
intensification over the forecast period is still expected since the
shear is low and SSTs are fairly warm. By the end of the forecast
period, drier air is expected to inhibit convection, which should
cause the cyclone to begin to weaken. No significant changes have
been made to the intensity forecast, which is based on a selective
ensemble of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF.

Given the poor definition of the low-level circulation, the initial
motion estimate is highly uncertain, but estimated to be 285/5 kt.
The cyclone is still embedded within weak steering flow, and all of
the global models forecast that it will remain so for the entirety
of the forecast period. While the spread is fairly high, in general
the models still forecast that a deep-layer trough well to the north
of the depression should allow for a slow northward drift after 48
h. The NHC track forecast remains close to the corrected consensus
HCCA, and is fairly close to the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 15.8N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.8N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 15.9N 125.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 16.5N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 17.7N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:32 am

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Just like it has on several previous occasions already, convection
has decreased near the center of the depression. That said, the
fact that there even is deep convection near the center is still an
improvement compared to 24 hours ago. The estimated intensity
remains 30 kt based on an average of TAFB and SAB Dvorak
classifications. There is no change in the reasoning behind the
intensity forecast, and if convection near the center of the
depression can persist, the cyclone may finally begin to slowly
intensify. The intensity forecast is still based on a selective
consensus of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF, since the significant
intensification shown by the HMON and COAMPS models seems unlikely,
given the current structure of the cyclone.

A couple recent microwave images indicate that the center remains
somewhat ill-defined. My best estimate of the initial motion is
270/4 kt, but this is based in part on continuity from the previous
advisory. Little change was required to the track forecast since
the depression remains embedded within weak steering flow and is not
expected to move very much throughout the 5 day period. The models
continue to show a slow northward drift in a couple of days,
followed by a slow turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge
begins to build to the northwest. My forecast is close to HCCA, but
gives a little extra weight to the ECMWF since it seems to have
performed well for the depression so far.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 15.9N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.9N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.7N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 15.7N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 17.0N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 17.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#39 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:35 am

Based on previous averages on the advisories, it looks like this would be named by late of this day.
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My opinions are mine and SHOULD not be treated as an official source of information. PLEASE see National Hurricane Center, or any other meteorological agencies, for that matter. By the way, I was born and came from Indonesia, which is rarely hit by tropical cyclones, but regardless, I have LOTS of interest in meteorology.

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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#40 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:36 am

Now it's no longer predicted to be a TS anymore. NHC shocks me... :shocked!:
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My opinions are mine and SHOULD not be treated as an official source of information. PLEASE see National Hurricane Center, or any other meteorological agencies, for that matter. By the way, I was born and came from Indonesia, which is rarely hit by tropical cyclones, but regardless, I have LOTS of interest in meteorology.


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