ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:29 am

Western of two newly declared invests.

96L INVEST 170914 1200 8.5N 33.0W ATL 20 1012
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:43 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: NATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:50 am

This was the original thread at Talking Tropics:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119207
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Re: NATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:54 am

A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:56 am

My concern for the Gulf Coast is how low latitude this thing is. Damn.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:44 am

SoupBone wrote:My concern for the Gulf Coast is how low latitude this thing is. Damn.

And mine is for how low latitude it is for the Antilles, especially the northeastern islands.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:26 am

abajan wrote:
SoupBone wrote:My concern for the Gulf Coast is how low latitude this thing is. Damn.

And mine is for how low latitude it is for the Antilles, especially the northeastern islands.



No doubt. These low runners are an area of concern for sure.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:50 am

Unlike Irma at this longitude, this is a situation where weaker means more west. Looking at the state of this invest today, wouldn't be surprised if models shift more west over the coming runs.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:53 am

For Texas and Louisiana, this is right at the start of when they start seeing a sign of at least a slow switch to Fall. Timing, as always, will be key. Any modeling on fronts for the next several weeks?
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:00 pm

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
form early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby bohaiboy » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:32 pm

SoupBone wrote:For Texas and Louisiana, this is right at the start of when they start seeing a sign of at least a slow switch to Fall. Timing, as always, will be key. Any modeling on fronts for the next several weeks?

10 day forecast for Houston area little to no rain and highs in low 90's and mid 70's at night. No front in sight based on local KPRC weather.
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TW just north of Houston :flag:

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby Prof » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:57 pm

Newbie here. Is the amount of activity we are having typical or is this above average?
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:58 pm

bohaiboy wrote:
SoupBone wrote:For Texas and Louisiana, this is right at the start of when they start seeing a sign of at least a slow switch to Fall. Timing, as always, will be key. Any modeling on fronts for the next several weeks?

10 day forecast for Houston area little to no rain and highs in low 90's and mid 70's at night. No front in sight based on local KPRC weather.


Don't necessarily need a front, but even just some form of high pressure parked over the region.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:03 pm

Prof wrote:Newbie here. Is the amount of activity we are having typical or is this above average?

Very active season so far. 9 more storms and we are well into hyperactive activity.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby hcane27 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:28 pm

I believe 97L or whatever it becomes sucks the life right out of 96L ...
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby stormzilla » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:36 pm

SoupBone wrote:My concern for the Gulf Coast is how low latitude this thing is. Damn.

Concern for us here in Trinidad..to close for comfort.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:03 pm

It's September...has to be watched.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:05 pm

Invest 96L could well be Maria. 97L is likely to be Lee.
Last edited by SuperMarioBros99thx on Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby RT23 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:24 pm

GFS 18z run looks bad for Barbados and the islands
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:35 pm

8 PM TWO:


A tropical wave located about 850 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression will likely form early next week while it moves
westward at about 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:09 pm

Deep convection on the increase

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