ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Ken711
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2001 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:59 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Official wind gust forecast from NWS San Juan. Up to 184mph in higher elevations and 164mph at San Juan.

Image


That's just unimaginable.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2002 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:00 pm

outer eye is clearly contracting pretty fast.. always interesting to watch ..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2003 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:03 pm

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2004 Postby PandaCitrus » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:04 pm

Anyone have wind measurements on st Croix? They are going to hit the outer eyewall in 1 hour.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2005 Postby OntarioEggplant » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:06 pm

The mountains on Dominica ran N/S but Puerto Rico is E/W. It would be a different effect... More similar to how Ivan approached Jamaica
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2006 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:06 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:Anyone have wind measurements on st Croix? They are going to hit the outer eyewall in 1 hour.


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-64.79165732568204&lat=17.724572605791366

Official recording station is still up at the moment.

OntarioEggplant wrote:The mountains on Dominica ran N/S but Puerto Rico is E/W. It would be a different effect... More similar to how Ivan approached Jamaica


Is that why some slower-moving hurricanes seem to bounce along the coast as they approach?
Last edited by Hammy on Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2007 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:06 pm

Outer eye was 42 miles across about an hour ago. Now I’m measuring roughly 35 miles. If it keeps up at this pace the EWRC may be done in a few hours...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2008 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:10 pm

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2009 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:14 pm

St. Croix 22:00 Heavy Rain Fog and Windy 77 77 100 NE 51 G 85 29.24
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2010 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:14 pm

In WPAC, when a strong TC encounters a mountain (Taiwan, N. LUZON) - they tend to suddenly move SW or W (for NW moving TC).
I expecting the same for Maria - to bent more to the W once it encounters the mountains of PR.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2011 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:19 pm

What is causing that big dry slot in the red IR of the CDO?


It looks like it veered right towards St Croix...


.
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2012 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:20 pm

new plane on the way..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2013 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:21 pm

Sanibel wrote:What is causing that big dry slot in the red IR of the CDO?


It looks like it veered right towards St Croix...


the ERC
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2014 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:21 pm

Probably going to guess ~919 when they get in the center.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2015 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:23 pm

its coming quickly to that defining moment where we ask ourselves will the outer eye just merge with the inner eyewall like harvey and irma or does it do a classic ERC ?

since the outer eyewall is approaching the inner pretty quick..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2016 Postby gtalum » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:23 pm

mrbagyo wrote:In WPAC, when a strong TC encounters a mountain (Taiwan, N. LUZON) - they tend to suddenly move SW or W (for NW moving TC).
I expecting the same for Maria - to bent more to the W once it encounters the mountains of PR.


Ivan danced right around Jamaica in 2004.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2017 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:24 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... abf3161cfc

90% of buildings on Dominica destroyed
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2018 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its coming quickly to that defining moment where we ask ourselves will the outer eye just merge with the inner eyewall like harvey and irma or does it do a classic ERC ?

since the outer eyewall is approaching the inner pretty quick..


It looks like they may merge like we saw with Harvey and Irma...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2019 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its coming quickly to that defining moment where we ask ourselves will the outer eye just merge with the inner eyewall like harvey and irma or does it do a classic ERC ?

since the outer eyewall is approaching the inner pretty quick..


Cloud tops have rapidly warmed already. Seems like a classic ERC to me.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2020 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:26 pm

gtalum wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:In WPAC, when a strong TC encounters a mountain (Taiwan, N. LUZON) - they tend to suddenly move SW or W (for NW moving TC).
I expecting the same for Maria - to bent more to the W once it encounters the mountains of PR.


Ivan danced right around Jamaica in 2004.

That I remember, the dance around the island.
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