ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

There is no getting out of this one..

the only question is how strong..

Presently It looks to be organizing much faster than the models. So given that the environment looks pretty good up to the islands with some shear as it approaches briefly. Seeing a strong hurricane is quite possible.

its very likely already closed looks very good. . if convection persists like this overnight upgrade 5am or def by 11am.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc17/ ... W.72pc.jpg

Aric looks like something to keep a real eye on? Do you think that the Leewards could be concerned? What are you latest and best thougts in terms of in accurate intensity and path? Thanks.

Gusty, I don't know Aric's thoughts, but I don't like the way this is looking. Not at all. And the last three runs of the GFS are remarkably consistent in taking a hurricane into your general location. Although Barbados would be on the weaker side of the system, we would still be affected. Our MET Office is forecasting the possibility of 6 to 8 inches of rain and sea swells up to 6 meters!

Right! Agree with you my friend Abajan... i do not like that way too, very worrying towards the EC islands! Yes GFS latest runs are impressive. Be sure that alll of us SHOULD monitor it. Waouw, 6 meters, 6 to 8 inches, that's a lot man! Does not sound good Abajan, do not let our guard down.

[Gustywind]

Given SSD, increasing numbers up to 1.5/1.5
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
15/2345 UTC [b]12.0N 45.4W T1.5/1.5 96L [/b]
15/1745 UTC 11.2N 43.5W T1.0/1.0 96L

[1900hurricane]

It appears ASCAT missed this evening.

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/908872991777464320




My thoughts on the matter as explained by TA13

[banksmanforever]

Guys how is it looking for Barbados

[lando]

rip jacksonville according to gfs

[ColdMiser123]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands have continued to
become better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development and a tropical cyclone could form at any time
today or Sunday so while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward around 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of
this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles later this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[northjaxpro]

This will be upgraded to either TD or TS Lee later today. Could happen later this morning.

This system is organizing very well and quickly. I am praying for all in the islands!! This is unbelievable that they are facing this danger so soon after Irma's deadly path through there.

[Gustywind]

96L continues to intensify steadily witH numbers not far from TS Status and moving towards the EC islands...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/0545 UTC 12.3N 47.2W T2.0/2.0 96L
15/2345 UTC 12.0N 45.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
15/1745 UTC 11.2N 43.5W T1.0/1.0 96L

[GCANE]

Looks like it is still going straight west.
Just crossed 50W

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands continue to show signs
of organization, but it is unclear if the system has a well-defined
center of circulation. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
could form at any time today or on Sunday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Hurricane or tropical storm
watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles later
today, and interests on those islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[forecasterjack]

96L is looking really good this morning on GOES16 satellite imagery. Excellent outflow and improving convective structure Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/455-w-130- ... .html#play

[GCANE]

700mb and 500mb vorts appear closed off.
GFS is still depicting as open.
May have some interesting changes in the next model runs.

Need a couple good high-helicity hot towers to push it to the surface.
Stay tuned.

[wxman57]

Guys how is it looking for Barbados

Possibly 50-60 miles north of Barbados before sunrise Monday as a 50 mph TS, but with 35 mph winds south of the center. Some squalls/rain there but the wind may not be too strong.

This is the system to watch. Possible strong TS or hurricane in NE Caribbean Tue/Wed then it may be heading to the East U.S. Coast.

[Alyono]

not liking the significant slowdown the models are forecasting near the islands. Could create a major flood issue

Looking like this season's stronger version of Marilyn to Irma's stronger version of Luis

[GeneratorPower]

This season is hellish. The flooding has been the big story.

[cycloneye]

An ASCAT pass over 96L is needed to see if the circulation is closed.

[banksmanforever]

Guys how is it looking for Barbados

Possibly 50-60 miles north of Barbados before sunrise Monday as a 50 mph TS, but with 35 mph winds south of the center. Some squalls/rain there but the wind may not be too strong.

This is the system to watch. Possible strong TS or hurricane in NE Caribbean Tue/Wed then it may be heading to the East U.S. Coast.

Thanks Wxman57

[cycloneye]

Up to 2.5 on dvorak.

16/1145 UTC 12.6N 49.8W T2.5/2.5 96L -- Atlantic

[wxman57]

An ASCAT pass over 96L is needed to see if the circulation is closed.

Visible loop suggests it might be closed.

[WeatherGuesser]

not liking the significant slowdown the models are forecasting near the islands. Could create a major flood issue

Looking like this season's stronger version of Marilyn to Irma's stronger version of Luis

They need time to rebuild Barbuda, but they have to have safe enough weather to even begin.

US should offer significant help in exchange for building a weather outpost there.