ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

its coming quickly to that defining moment where we ask ourselves will the outer eye just merge with the inner eyewall like harvey and irma or does it do a classic ERC ?

since the outer eyewall is approaching the inner pretty quick..

Cloud tops have rapidly warmed already. Seems like a classic ERC to me.

they warmed with harvey and irma too thats normal.

[Sanibel]

Almost a certain hit on St Croix now from the present track..It will be disastrous...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Salix88]

In WPAC, when a strong TC encounters a mountain (Taiwan, N. LUZON) - they tend to suddenly move SW or W (for NW moving TC).
I expecting the same for Maria - to bent more to the W once it encounters the mountains of PR.

Ivan danced right around Jamaica in 2004.

Also, Puerto Rico's Cordillera Central (main mountain range) is almost 100 miles long. I'm concerned that with a few hours in a western movement due to the interaction with the mountain range (instead of the current WNW or NNW), the trajectory could come closer to DR.

[toto]

In WPAC, when a strong TC encounters a mountain (Taiwan, N. LUZON) - they tend to suddenly move SW or W (for NW moving TC).
I expecting the same for Maria - to bent more to the W once it encounters the mountains of PR.

Ivan danced right around Jamaica in 2004.

It was a strange thing to behold... Ivan moved around Jamaica as if it were intelligently controlled.
.

[Blown Away]

Maria right of the NHC track ATM...

[artist]

From Dominica today
[Youtube]https://youtu.be/pPWHZ3o0zik[/Youtube]
And a ham radio transmission
https://t.co/z3F3Wym0xh?amp=1
https://mobile.twitter.com/ecdweather

[HDGator]

In WPAC, when a strong TC encounters a mountain (Taiwan, N. LUZON) - they tend to suddenly move SW or W (for NW moving TC).
I expecting the same for Maria - to bent more to the W once it encounters the mountains of PR.

Ivan danced right around Jamaica in 2004.

Also, Puerto Rico's Cordillera Central (main mountain range) is almost 100 miles long. I'm concerned that with a few hours in a western movement due to the interaction with the mountain range (instead of the current WNW or NNW), the trajectory could come closer to DR.

I know we've seen this southern jog in the past with storms crossing PR. With Maria's current wnw (300) heading, I don't think you'll see a substantial deviation to the west to bring major impacts to Hispanolia. You're definitely going to see the outer effects of rain and wind but I think the worst of the storm will spare the island this time. Just my thoughts.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[loro-rojo]

Gonna try to catch some sleep. Probably my last post for at least a couple of days. Wish me luck.

[jdjaguar]

Gonna try to catch some sleep. Probably my last post for at least a couple of days. Wish me luck.

Good luck my friend!

[tolakram]

Gonna try to catch some sleep. Probably my last post for at least a couple of days. Wish me luck.

Good luck, please stay safe.

[Cee22]

About what time is Maria supposed to make landfall in PR?

[PaulR]

Gonna try to catch some sleep. Probably my last post for at least a couple of days. Wish me luck.

You and a lot of other people are in my family's prayers!

[beoumont]

Ivan danced right around Jamaica in 2004.

Also, Puerto Rico's Cordillera Central (main mountain range) is almost 100 miles long. I'm concerned that with a few hours in a western movement due to the interaction with the mountain range (instead of the current WNW or NNW), the trajectory could come closer to DR.

Hugo's track didn't deviate west a bit; and it was a large major hurricane as it approached NE Puerto Rico banging up against those same mountains. In fact, it tracked a little to the right of how it had been the night before scrapping past Luquillo/Fajardo.

[tolakram]

About what time is Maria supposed to make landfall in PR?

Looks like 8am AST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025022.shtml?gm_track#contents

[chaser1]

Gonna try to catch some sleep. Probably my last post for at least a couple of days. Wish me luck.

Be safe!

[galaxy401]

Gonna try to catch some sleep. Probably my last post for at least a couple of days. Wish me luck.

Going to be a long 24 hours. Wish you luck and hope for the best.

[PandaCitrus]

Looks good for st. Croix right now. The eye is directly south and seems to have taken a more wnw jog. They are getting slammed with the outer eyewall and probably 100 to 120mph winds but the inner eyeball with the Cat 5 winds should remain offshore I think. Going to be close.

[Cee22]

About what time is Maria supposed to make landfall in PR?

Looks like 8am AST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025022.shtml?gm_track#contents

Thank you. We have family there and they told us it would hit tomorrow but I wasn’t sure of the time.

Praying for everyone on that beautiful island.

[SoupBone]

saved radar loop

Crap, St Croix is going to get hit with the NE quad. Right on the chin.

[artist]

Gonna try to catch some sleep. Probably my last post for at least a couple of days. Wish me luck.

All of you are in my thoughts and prayers