ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27370
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2941 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:39 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 242236
NOAA2 WC15A MARIA HDOB 33 20170924
222700 2939N 07247W 6926 02725 9437 +170 +140 125030 033 029 002 00
222730 2937N 07247W 6947 02702 9432 +172 +134 144024 026 022 001 00
222800 2935N 07247W 6937 02708 9430 +170 +138 160019 021 015 001 03
222830 2933N 07248W 6952 02690 9433 +170 +138 176012 015 008 002 03
222900 2932N 07250W 6938 02708 9434 +168 +134 218006 008 002 001 03
222930 2931N 07252W 6956 02689 9439 +166 +140 279007 009 /// /// 03
223000 2932N 07254W 6939 02710 9435 +168 +139 305009 010 /// /// 03
223030 2934N 07256W 6941 02703 9434 +170 +139 323007 008 /// /// 03
223100 2936N 07255W 6963 02681 9431 +176 +135 030005 005 /// /// 03
223130 2937N 07254W 6923 02726 9431 +171 +135 077010 011 /// /// 03
223200 2938N 07252W 6937 02713 9434 +167 +138 102012 014 /// /// 03
223230 2937N 07249W 6938 02706 9432 +170 +138 129015 015 /// /// 03
223300 2936N 07248W 6931 02718 9432 +170 +136 145014 015 /// /// 03
223330 2934N 07249W 6938 02707 9433 +169 +134 180009 011 005 001 03
223400 2932N 07250W 6964 02681 9444 +163 +138 243009 011 004 000 00
223430 2930N 07251W 6961 02688 9448 +162 +141 261015 016 009 002 03
223500 2928N 07252W 6968 02683 9454 +161 +142 272019 022 012 000 03
223530 2928N 07254W 6966 02690 9458 +162 +143 279025 026 /// /// 03
223600 2928N 07257W 6959 02699 9456 +162 +144 289027 028 024 003 00
223630 2929N 07258W 6956 02703 9455 +163 +143 305029 030 025 002 03
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18119
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2942 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:48 pm

How about we keep the recon reports in the recon reports thread?
9 likes   

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3098
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2943 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:50 pm

Last edited by supercane4867 on Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:18 pm, edited 4 times in total.
1 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27370
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2944 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:52 pm

That's my fault sorry (re: Recon reports).
4 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27370
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2945 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:56 pm



Wow, that shows the power of the winds. First NWS radar to be destroyed since the Miami radar in Andrew in 1992?
3 likes   

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3098
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2946 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:03 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/912084623680819200


Wow, that shows the power of the winds. First NWS radar to be destroyed since the Miami radar in Andrew in 1992?

Sadly, they have to replace it with a brand new radar which is probably going to take a while. Let's hope no more hurricanes will come anywhere close to PR for the rest of season.
0 likes   

PandaCitrus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 254
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:44 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2947 Postby PandaCitrus » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:04 pm

I think the Doppler Radar is on a 2000 foot mountain and was in the northern eyewall. It must have received some insane gusts.
1 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4112
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2948 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:24 pm

Here is the latest Coriolis pass. A giant outer eyewall is developing. Recon has shown a wind max with the feature. Maria probably will not exceed its current intensity for the rest of its existence.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2678
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2949 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:32 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
What it should be looked like inside. The whole instrument is gone.




Any chance of a legitimate link to the damage pictures?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14431
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2950 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:33 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
What it should be looked like inside. The whole instrument is gone.




Any chance of a legitimate link to the damage pictures?


Twitter is legitimate. :) Grumpy.

Here's the link directly to the picture hosted on twitter.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKhgHyCXoAIWhmX.jpg:large

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14431
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2951 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:36 pm

Copy of a closeup image.

https://i.imgur.com/1VCwj9O.png

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

capepoint
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 409
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 7:13 pm
Location: Beaufort, NC

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2952 Postby capepoint » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:45 pm

Ocracoke Island NC begins mandatory evac of visitors Monday morning.
0 likes   
Ginger-(eye),Dennis,Diana,Kate,Gloria,Charley-(eye),Allison,Arthur,Bertha,Fran,Josephine,Bonnie,Earl,Dennis-(twice),Floyd, Isabel-(eye),Charley,Ophelia-(eyewall),Ernesto,Barry,Hanna,Irene-(eye),Arthur-(eye), and countless depressions, storms, and nor'easters.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27370
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2953 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:47 pm

Based on all the data I have seen, I'd set the intensity at 75 kt.
0 likes   

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 409
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: Salt Lake City

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2954 Postby Meteorcane » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:50 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:


Wow, that shows the power of the winds. First NWS radar to be destroyed since the Miami radar in Andrew in 1992?


NWS Reno's radar was severely damaged as well although not as thoroughly as San Juan's http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/1581
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2678
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2955 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:05 pm

tolakram wrote:
Here's the link directly to the picture hosted on twitter.



Better. Other thing to note is that every single tree appears broken off.

That will never be cleaned up. We still have large numbers of damaged trees in the wooded areas from the ice storms in '09 and '10 and Ike's visit.
2 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1458
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2956 Postby txwatcher91 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:07 pm

Any idea what’s going on with Maria? I mean shear looks low and SST’s have been plenty warm recently, but she looks horrendous tonight. Is it just that the inner core was so disrupted from Puerto Rico and the mountains there that she hasn’t recovered?
1 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4112
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2957 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:32 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:Any idea what’s going on with Maria? I mean shear looks low and SST’s have been plenty warm recently, but she looks horrendous tonight. Is it just that the inner core was so disrupted from Puerto Rico and the mountains there that she hasn’t recovered?

Looks largely a function of mid level shear to me. CIMSS upper level analysis shows shear undercutting the outflow level from the southwest. Sounding data from the Bahamas verifies this analysis, showing 15-30 kt southwesterlies from 450-250 mb. Additionally, microwave imagery seems to allude to lower level dry air wrapping in from the north. A sprawling circulation like Maria's can easily entrain dry air.

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

StormSkeptic
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 20
Joined: Tue Sep 30, 2003 8:40 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2958 Postby StormSkeptic » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:49 pm

I think another factor is that water temps are at the most marginal in the area 79-80 based on a couple of the buoys. This combined with the dry air is not allowing enough instability to produce sustained deep convection. The relatively flat pressure gradient is also preventing Maria from building a tighter inner core.
0 likes   

TJRE
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 160
Joined: Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:04 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2959 Postby TJRE » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:54 pm

0 likes   

emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 374
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2960 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:06 pm

Looks very disorganized hope the trend continues.
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests