ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Vdogg
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 274
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:56 am

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2961 Postby Vdogg » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:41 pm

This is from a few hours ago. Recon is back in now and found the pressure back down to 961. They also just found 75kt surface winds. Still a hurricane.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17434
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2962 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:11 pm

There was talk that Maria is now moving NW. Don't assume that recon reported the exact center of the very large eye each pass. Looking at a 3-hr loop on satellite, I calculate a movement toward 049 deg (NE) at about 4-5 kts. Previous 3 hours, I get 317 deg (NW) at 8 kts. Maria was moving NW between 1345Z and 1645Z. Since then, it slowed and turned NE. Probably observing wobbles left and right.
2 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17434
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2963 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:56 pm

From San Juan Weather office, here's the status of the radar:

000
NOUS62 TJSJ 251947
FTMJUA

MESSAGE DATE: SEP 25 2017 19:47:00

TJUA (NEXRAD IN CAYEY, PR) WAS ABUSED BY MARIA. AS A RESULT THE
RADOME DIVORCED THE TOWER AND RAN AWAY WITH ONE DEPENDENT, THE
ANTENNA. RECONCILIATION WILL HOPEFULLY BE COMPLETED IN 3 TO 6
MONTHS. MARIA FLED THE SCENE HEADING NORTHWEST. SHE IS CONSIDERED
ARMED AND DANGEROUS--DO NOT ATTEMPT TO APPREHEND.
17 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2635
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2964 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:27 pm

Radar on GR3 appears to be suspended in time at the moment of the offense.

TSJU appears to have gone walkabout too.
0 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 402
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2965 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:47 pm

Near 38.5 ACE currently. Can she break 40 and hold it on the best track before going post-tropical? Maybe! Kinda hoping for more records while we're at it :P
3 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3182
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2966 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:07 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Near 38.5 ACE currently. Can she break 40 and hold it on the best track before going post-tropical? Maybe! Kinda hoping for more records while we're at it :P

I think we'll make it. 70 kt is 0.49 ACE every six hours or about 2 ACE/day. There's obviously going to be some weakening, but unless Maria completes extratropical transition considerably earlier than currently predicted, 40 ACE will be obtained. It's worth noting that no satellite era NAtl season has ever had three or more individual systems break 40 ACE (not sure about pre-satellite era). Additionally only 3 WPac seasons have done so since 1970. 1997 (most active on record) had six(!) and 2004 and 1992 (second and third most active, respectively) each had three apiece.
3 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3182
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2967 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:15 pm

Funky.

Image
1 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 308
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2968 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:50 pm

Looks more organized
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26782
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2969 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:27 pm

Maria still seems to be moving almost due north.

I wonder if the filling has adjusted the steering currents at all?
0 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1017
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:45 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2970 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:27 pm

Image


Image
MARIA has a v/large area of storm force winds
2 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3393
Age: 34
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2971 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:19 pm

Image

Outer bands starting to move in.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17434
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2972 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:58 am

No 64kt winds on the first two passes through the center by recon this morning. Max I saw was about 62kts, which would be enough to keep it a hurricane on the next advisory. Doesn't look like much of an impact across the Outer Banks next 24hrs. NE winds 25-35 mph in general, with occasional showers. Might see a report or two of 40 mph winds. No heavy squalls, though.
3 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26782
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2973 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:33 am

I wonder - once Maria makes the easterly turn, breaking free of Jose's wake, could it get one more chance to restrengthen? Especially if it turns at a fairly low latitude.
0 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 402
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2974 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:43 am

I'm still surprised that Jose's wake was so significant. One would think it'd have recovered slightly, especially over the Gulf Stream. Imagine how different a storm we'd be looking at if it had tracked west of the wake.
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 308
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2975 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:49 am

If she had tracked more west it would have been a different situation. The sun is now out here.
0 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1283
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2976 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:No 64kt winds on the first two passes through the center by recon this morning. Max I saw was about 62kts, which would be enough to keep it a hurricane on the next advisory. Doesn't look like much of an impact across the Outer Banks next 24hrs. NE winds 25-35 mph in general, with occasional showers. Might see a report or two of 40 mph winds. No heavy squalls, though.


The issue here isn't the wind but the surge in the sounds. The OBX sound side is now under a surge warning with 2-4 feet of inundation across the area and 15-25 foot waves on the ocean side that will cause heavy erosion. The wind and rain impact will be minimal but the surge and erosion will cause issues for a lot of businesses and residents in the area.
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2635
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2977 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:50 pm

The Magic 40 yet?
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17434
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2978 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:12 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:No 64kt winds on the first two passes through the center by recon this morning. Max I saw was about 62kts, which would be enough to keep it a hurricane on the next advisory. Doesn't look like much of an impact across the Outer Banks next 24hrs. NE winds 25-35 mph in general, with occasional showers. Might see a report or two of 40 mph winds. No heavy squalls, though.


The issue here isn't the wind but the surge in the sounds. The OBX sound side is now under a surge warning with 2-4 feet of inundation across the area and 15-25 foot waves on the ocean side that will cause heavy erosion. The wind and rain impact will be minimal but the surge and erosion will cause issues for a lot of businesses and residents in the area.


The tides may be closer to 2 ft above normal than 4 ft, so 2-3 ft would be more accurate. Forecast for Duck Pier (northern Outer Banks) is for tides a little over 2 ft above normal next day or two. This is due to the large waves moving into the coast. Highest projections I can find are about 2.5 ft above normal. Still, tides a couple of feet above normal for such a flat area is a problem.

Image
0 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1283
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2979 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:No 64kt winds on the first two passes through the center by recon this morning. Max I saw was about 62kts, which would be enough to keep it a hurricane on the next advisory. Doesn't look like much of an impact across the Outer Banks next 24hrs. NE winds 25-35 mph in general, with occasional showers. Might see a report or two of 40 mph winds. No heavy squalls, though.


The issue here isn't the wind but the surge in the sounds. The OBX sound side is now under a surge warning with 2-4 feet of inundation across the area and 15-25 foot waves on the ocean side that will cause heavy erosion. The wind and rain impact will be minimal but the surge and erosion will cause issues for a lot of businesses and residents in the area.


The tides may be closer to 2 ft above normal than 4 ft, so 2-3 ft would be more accurate. Forecast for Duck Pier (northern Outer Banks) is for tides a little over 2 ft above normal next day or two. This is due to the large waves moving into the coast. Highest projections I can find are about 2.5 ft above normal. Still, tides a couple of feet above normal for such a flat area is a problem.

[img]http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/msl/data/ncduck.gif[/mg]


From what I read in the storm surge warning, they are expecting 2-4 feet of inundation on the sound side of the OBX which will definitely cause some big problems if that verifies. Already the coast guard hydro gauge is measuring nearly 3 feet and moderate flooding begins at 3.5 feet. Cedar Island is at 2.4 feet and moderate flooding begins at 4 feet there. The duration of the winds and large area will continue to pile the waters up the next 24 hours and usually experience around this area tells me the sounds rise a bit more than forecast most of the time.
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2635
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2980 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:00 pm

Somebody call for an evacuation of this thread?

Hello?
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests