ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3001 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:45 am

Last time there was nothing active in the Atlantic was the morning of August 23, when Harvey was about to reform.

One thing is for sure - once gone, that is it for Maria for good. The :Can: awaits her, just like Harvey and Irma. Won't be seeing you in 2023, Maria!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3002 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:37 pm

Looks like one more best track point to close out September.

AL, 15, 2017093018, , BEST, 0, 414N, 455W, 45, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 110, 200, 200, 150, 1006, 150, 90, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 300, 420, 300, genesis-num, 028,
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3003 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:38 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Looks like one more best track point to close out September.

AL, 15, 2017093018, , BEST, 0, 414N, 455W, 45, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 110, 200, 200, 150, 1006, 150, 90, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 300, 420, 300, genesis-num, 028,


We'll see if they keep it alive at 5 pm. If so, we have gone through the entire month with continuous activity.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3004 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:40 pm

TXNT29 KNES 301810
TCSNTL

A. 15L (MARIA)

B. 30/1745Z

C. 41.5N

D. 45.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
NEAR A SMALL AREA OF COLD OVERCAST. THIS CONFERS A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT
ARE BOTH 1.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS OF NO MORE THAN 1.0 IN 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GAETANO

Still tropical per Dvorak. No evidence of frontal boundaries either from what I can tell, so it is a matter of maintaining deep convection.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3005 Postby artist » Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:17 pm

From stormcarib.com re: Vieques

Date: Sat, 30 Sep 2017 14:56:46 -0400
From Valerie Mc Dyer
Sent from my iPhone

Vieques was hit badly. On Tuesday night 18th the winds were whipping around by
6 pm so we moved down to our more sheltered bottom floor. We got one dog in but
the other one would not budge.
Sleep was fitful, we could hear objects crashing all around the house. At 4am
we ran to the bathroom and hunkered down intil 9am, when the winds died a
little
The eye crossed Vieques at Green Beach, on the western end. Winds of 168mph
were recorded.
There were trees down everywhere. Power lines were torn down and transformers
littered the roads. We had no water, power, cell signal, money as the bank was
closed, and ferries and planes had stopped running, so Vieques was literally
cut off from the world. Many wooden homes were destroyed and their contents
spread all around.
Next day we ventured out to Esperanza on the south shore and the destruction
there was shocking! The sea rose so high as to completely cover the road with a
layer of sand, and all of the businesses along the road had sustained serious
damage.

More to come.

Val Mc Dyer from Vieques

.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3006 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:30 pm

FINALLY, after 37 1/2 days, we get a break.

Good riddance, Maria!!!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3007 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:58 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

This is NOT an official BT, but here is what I would have for Maria. It may be adjusted more once additional surface data comes in.

(Updated to November 22 based on new data)

AL152017, MARIA, 63,
20170916, 0000, , TD, 11.6N, 45.8W, 30, 1011,
20170916, 0600, , TS, 12.0N, 47.6W, 35, 1009,
20170916, 1200, , TS, 12.2N, 49.7W, 40, 1006,
20170916, 1800, , TS, 12.3N, 51.7W, 45, 1003,
20170917, 0000, , TS, 12.5N, 53.1W, 50, 999,
20170917, 0600, , TS, 12.8N, 54.3W, 55, 995,
20170917, 1200, , TS, 13.3N, 55.7W, 60, 991,
20170917, 1800, , HU, 13.6N, 57.0W, 70, 985,
20170918, 0000, , HU, 14.0N, 58.0W, 80, 979,
20170918, 0600, , HU, 14.3N, 59.0W, 90, 973,
20170918, 1200, , HU, 14.5N, 59.7W, 105, 966,
20170918, 1800, , HU, 14.9N, 60.4W, 120, 948,
20170919, 0000, , HU, 15.3N, 61.1W, 145, 926,
20170919, 0115, L, HU, 15.4N, 61.3W, 150, 922, Landfall - Rosalie, Dominica
20170919, 0400, T, HU, 15.6N, 61.5W, 130, 942,
20170919, 0600, , HU, 15.8N, 61.9W, 135, 938,
20170919, 1200, , HU, 16.1N, 62.7W, 140, 932,
20170919, 1800, , HU, 16.6N, 63.6W, 145, 918,
20170920, 0000, , HU, 17.0N, 64.3W, 155, 906, Maximum wind and minimum pressure
20170920, 0600, , HU, 17.6N, 65.1W, 140, 914,
20170920, 1010, L, HU, 18.0N, 65.8W, 130, 923, Landfall - Yabucoa, Puerto Rico
20170920, 1200, , HU, 18.2N, 66.1W, 105, 939,
20170920, 1800, , HU, 18.6N, 67.0W, 90, 960,
20170921, 0000, , HU, 18.9N, 67.6W, 90, 957,
20170921, 0600, , HU, 19.4N, 68.1W, 95, 958,
20170921, 1200, , HU, 19.9N, 68.8W, 100, 958,
20170921, 1800, , HU, 20.5N, 69.5W, 110, 956,
20170922, 0000, , HU, 20.8N, 70.0W, 115, 952,
20170922, 0600, , HU, 21.2N, 70.5W, 110, 957,
20170922, 1200, , HU, 21.9N, 70.9W, 110, 958,
20170922, 1800, , HU, 22.8N, 71.2W, 105, 958,
20170923, 0000, , HU, 23.7N, 71.6W, 100, 954,
20170923, 0600, , HU, 24.4N, 71.9W, 95, 954,
20170923, 1200, , HU, 25.0N, 72.2W, 90, 953,
20170923, 1800, , HU, 25.9N, 72.4W, 90, 948,
20170924, 0000, , HU, 26.6N, 72.5W, 90, 942,
20170924, 0600, , HU, 27.5N, 72.6W, 85, 944,
20170924, 1200, , HU, 28.4N, 72.8W, 85, 946,
20170924, 1800, , HU, 29.1N, 73.0W, 85, 941,
20170925, 0000, , HU, 29.7N, 72.9W, 80, 946,
20170925, 0600, , HU, 30.3N, 73.0W, 75, 955,
20170925, 1200, , HU, 30.8N, 73.0W, 70, 959,
20170925, 1800, , HU, 31.4N, 73.1W, 70, 963,
20170926, 0000, , HU, 32.0N, 73.1W, 65, 967,
20170926, 0600, , HU, 32.6N, 73.1W, 65, 970,
20170926, 1200, , HU, 33.2N, 73.1W, 65, 970,
20170926, 1800, , HU, 33.9N, 73.0W, 65, 972,
20170927, 0000, , HU, 34.4N, 72.9W, 65, 974,
20170927, 0600, , HU, 35.9N, 72.9W, 65, 975,
20170927, 1200, , HU, 35.4N, 72.8W, 65, 976,
20170927, 1800, , HU, 36.0N, 72.6W, 65, 977,
20170928, 0000, , HU, 36.5N, 72.2W, 65, 978,
20170928, 0600, , HU, 36.7N, 71.3W, 70, 975,
20170928, 1200, , HU, 36.8N, 70.0W, 70, 974,
20170928, 1800, , HU, 36.8N, 68.6W, 65, 977,
20170929, 0000, , TS, 36.9N, 66.8W, 60, 980,
20170929, 0600, , TS, 37.0N, 64.7W, 60, 982,
20170929, 1200, , TS, 37.2N, 61.7W, 55, 985,
20170929, 1800, , TS, 37.4N, 59.0W, 55, 986,
20170930, 0000, , TS, 37.9N, 55.6W, 55, 986,
20170930, 0600, , TS, 38.9N, 52.2W, 55, 987,
20170930, 1200, , TS, 40.0N, 48.6W, 55, 987,
20170930, 1800, , EX, 41.5N, 44.4W, 50, 992,

A few notes:

* Both landfall intensities are revised - Dominica upwards to 150 kt (Recon supported 145 a couple hours before landfall, then the RFQ went ashore while the pressure kept falling), while Puerto Rico is dropped a bit to 130 kt pending additional data.
* A lot of changes are made in the middle portion; more fluctuations are added.
* The peak intensity is adjusted (based on 152 kt SFMR and a bit more strengthening after that), with the lowest pressure between Recon passes when it appears the storm peaked.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:21 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3008 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:42 pm

I'm not real confident NHC will bump up to 155 kt, but it is possible. Maria ran almost dead on the KZC wind/pressure relationship, which outputs 156 kt for 908 mb with the other input data. Highest SFMR was only 152 kt, but the wind profile of the one crazy dropsonde may be what helps bump it up if the NHC makes that decision.

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3009 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:14 pm

Yeah I was looking at those data to make my thinking of a peak intensity of 155 kt.

The 906 mb pressure is an extrapolation between the 2300Z reading of 909 after rapid deepening was still underway and the 0400Z reading of 908 (at which point the ERC appeared to be underway and significant filling occurred in the following fix). I probably should have placed it at around 0200Z, but placed it at synoptic time to make it clearer. The landfall pressure is a bit uncertain; I went with 920 mb based on a bit more filling after the 917 fix, as well as Josh Morgerman's reading of 929 just outside the eye with violent winds still ongoing.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3010 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:09 pm

Reading the NWS San Juan initial report, there is very little data from the island to confirm or deny intensities. The best data we probably have is the 929 mb pressure recorded from Josh Morgerman outside the eye, which I used to come up with the 920 mb landfall estimate. There is no reliable wind data at all; 130 kt is my best guess.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3011 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:22 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Reading the NWS San Juan initial report, there is very little data from the island to confirm or deny intensities. The best data we probably have is the 929 mb pressure recorded from Josh Morgerman outside the eye, which I used to come up with the 920 mb landfall estimate. There is no reliable wind data at all; 130 kt is my best guess.


I think the lowest pressure recorded in Maria at landfall was the one taken by Simon Brewer inside the eye - 926.6 mb.



https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/911329219120189440
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3012 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:22 pm

The disturbing part with Maria is that one month later, we still don't have a grasp of the true death toll and damage in both Puerto Rico and Dominica. Offical death toll is over 50 in Puerto Rico but there are unconfirmed reports of it being in the hundreds. Not just Puerto Rico but Dominica too.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3013 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:50 pm

Not sure about a death toll in the thousands *heard some chatter* but pretty likely in a hundreds and is certainly underestimated. According to the Mayor of San Juan, Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria's death toll may be closer to 500 than 50.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing- ... ser-to?amp
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3014 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:03 pm

Interesting, didn't know about that measurement. If 926 is the actual landfall pressure, the intensity was probably 125 kt as there was definitely weakening during the ERC.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3015 Postby Alyono » Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:06 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Reading the NWS San Juan initial report, there is very little data from the island to confirm or deny intensities. The best data we probably have is the 929 mb pressure recorded from Josh Morgerman outside the eye, which I used to come up with the 920 mb landfall estimate. There is no reliable wind data at all; 130 kt is my best guess.


I think the lowest pressure recorded in Maria at landfall was the one taken by Simon Brewer inside the eye - 926.6 mb.



https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/911329219120189440


Interesting, didn't know about that measurement. If 926 is the actual landfall pressure, the intensity was probably 125 kt as there was definitely weakening during the ERC.


you're too low. It was likely no weaker than 135 kts based upon the radar being blown away and the winds it is designed to withstand. I was starting to intensify again as it made landfall
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3016 Postby Salix88 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 12:38 am

Alyono wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:
I think the lowest pressure recorded in Maria at landfall was the one taken by Simon Brewer inside the eye - 926.6 mb.



https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/911329219120189440


Interesting, didn't know about that measurement. If 926 is the actual landfall pressure, the intensity was probably 125 kt as there was definitely weakening during the ERC.


you're too low. It was likely no weaker than 135 kts based upon the radar being blown away and the winds it is designed to withstand. I was starting to intensify again as it made landfall


What are the odds of Maria being upgraded to a borderline Cat. 5 at PR landfall on post-season analysis?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3017 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:06 am

Salix88 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Interesting, didn't know about that measurement. If 926 is the actual landfall pressure, the intensity was probably 125 kt as there was definitely weakening during the ERC.


you're too low. It was likely no weaker than 135 kts based upon the radar being blown away and the winds it is designed to withstand. I was starting to intensify again as it made landfall


What are the odds of Maria being upgraded to a borderline Cat. 5 at PR landfall on post-season analysis?


I'd say small. not enough evidence since it made landfall between recon flights (hard to do since there were 3 hourly fixes
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3018 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:23 pm

My take is Maria will be upgraded to cat 5 after all the data and evidence of damage is analized.It may take a few years like Andrew.Here are a few fotos and videos.

Image

Image

Image

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=173tX9M ... e=youtu.be
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3019 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:22 pm

Incredible video taken in Yabucoa,Puerto Rico by Jose Garcia.Look at the wind directions that change constantly and that white car is moved.

@iCyclone
Super-freaky video of #Hurricane #MARIA in Yabucoa (close to landfall point) showing *bizarre* changes in wind direction. Seems like mesovortex action—but directional changes keep happening over several minutes. Weird sh*t. & cool. (Thx, @JMGarciaRivera.)https://youtu.be/FAS6JC41Fwg




https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/932686817924648960
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#3020 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:59 pm

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/29/16623926/puerto-rico-death-toll-hurricane-maria-count

How will the National Hurricane Center determine which source to use: official government statistics or the media investigations? (This is for the TCR.)
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