ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

So from recon positions its moving NNW?

Definitely NNW, which was expected. That east and due north wobble last night was not expected but it has corrected back to it's forecast path and is hitting it's forecast points. Approaching 73 W now. The real interest for the Carolinas is how far past 73w it gets. If it starts closing in on 74w it'll be on the Western side of guidance and Obx and Tidewater will have some trouble.

[emeraldislenc]

So it is moving nnw now?

[WeatherGuesser]

So it is moving nnw now?

Track is going to be variable as they always are. Don't worry about every little wobble. Coastal NC is in the current 5 Day come of 'maybe somewhere near here' for Wednesday, so you should be making plans accordingly.

[wxman57]

So it is moving nnw now?

Yes, it's moving just as had been predicted. Maria's TS winds may just brush eastern NC before the front arrives and sweeps it off to the NE. Landfall of the center there looks unlikely, but not impossible.

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks I appreciate your thoughts!

[GCANE]

['CaneFreak]

The dreaded southeasterlies have shown up at 300 mb at the 12Z MHX sounding. Eastern NC may have a surprise coming.

[seahawkjd]

[quote="'CaneFreak"]The dreaded southeasterlies have shown up at 300 mb at the 12Z MHX sounding. Eastern NC may have a surprise coming.


What do you mean?

[emeraldislenc]

What do you mean? Please explain.

['CaneFreak]

More ridging than expected. You see most meteorologists don't even look at soundings anymore. They just look at model forecasts and they just accept the output. Not me. I am old school. You can see the ridging very clearly on that sounding. Easterlies at 500 mb, southeasterlies at 300 mb, and southwesterlies at 200 mb. The mid/upper low over the Southeast continues to pull westward with the remnants of Jose now cutting itself off from this PV anomaly over the Southeast. If you look at water vapor imagery, you can see that dry mid level air moving southward down the coast. I see a classic dual outflow setup here with a ridge in between. Going to be an interesting next few days to say the least.

All of this to say that I see a stronger system coming farther west.

What do you mean?

[Vdogg]

The dreaded southeasterlies have shown up at 300 mb at the 12Z MHX sounding. Eastern NC may have a surprise coming.

What does this mean and how does it affect track?

[drezee]

The dreaded southeasterlies have shown up at 300 mb at the 12Z MHX sounding. Eastern NC may have a surprise.

I completely agree. Ridging is clear on WV and the Push more NW starts literally right now. She may be at 73W by 17z. If so, then all beats are off for the OBX.

[Stellar]

More ridging than expected. You see most meteorologists don't even look at soundings anymore. They just look at model forecasts and they just accept the output. Not me. I am old school. You can see the ridging very clearly on that sounding. Easterlies at 500 mb, southeasterlies at 300 mb, and southwesterlies at 200 mb. The mid/upper low over the Southeast continues to pull westward with the remnants of Jose now cutting itself off from this PV anomaly over the Southeast. If you look at water vapor imagery, you can see that dry mid level air moving southward down the coast. I see a classic dual outflow setup here with a ridge in between. Going to be an interesting next few days to say the least.

All of this to say that I see a stronger system coming farther west.

What do you mean?

Yes, you can see the dry air moving slowly south off the Mid-Atlantic coast: http://col.st/Pu5mF

Would this suggest a landfall slightly west and south of the forecast position?

[RL3AO]

More ridging than expected. You see most meteorologists don't even look at soundings anymore. They just look at model forecasts and they just accept the output.

Have you met and observed enough operational forecasters to make this assertion? The models are a tool. Soundings are a tool. Satellites are a tool. You can't afford to ignore any of them and solely use one tool.

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks for your thoughts very interesting

[drezee]

29N 73W...if Maria is left of there...i think she hits land. Over or right...i think she misses

[Vdogg]

Storm seems slightly faster than the models/forecast points show. Ragged eyewall touching 73w now. May just be a wobble but it looks like it'll come in slightly west of it's next forecast point.

[Vdogg]

Getting ready to cross now. Wasn't supposed to happen till 16z. I'd be shocked if models don't trend west this afternoon.

['CaneFreak]

We'll see what happens. All I am doing here is posting observations. It may go offshore or it may come close to the coast. No one can say with any level of certainty. All I am saying is that from the chair I am sitting in, it looks like this is going to head farther west than currently forecast.

More ridging than expected. You see most meteorologists don't even look at soundings anymore. They just look at model forecasts and they just accept the output.

Have you met and observed enough operational forecasters to make this assertion? The models are a tool. Soundings are a tool. Satellites are a tool. You can't afford to ignore any of them and solely use one tool.

[pgoss11]

Storm seems slightly faster than the models/forecast points show. Ragged eyewall touching 73w now. May just be a wobble but it looks like it'll come in slightly west of it's next forecast point.

I noticed this too. Almost looks like Maria has turned more NW than NNW. Will have to watch to see if it's real or just a wobble.