ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Is tracking slightly NW of due west, ridging to its north most still be strong enough.
Zoomed in saved radar loop.

[Gustywind]

Is tracking slightly NW of due west, ridging to its north most still be strong enough.
Zoomed in saved radar loop.

You may be right, and the last 2 frames seems to show a much more NW component. Anyway, any neighbour is under the gun as any wobbles or real motion could pose a direct threat at least briefly, that makes any islander nervous i imagine.

[Nimbus]

Looks like Maria is following the NHC track WNW, Dominica is very close to that track.
Quadeloupe is just 17 miles north of the track so at least the southern shore there will likely see hurricane force winds. Might only be a borderline category 2 storm when it passes by Guadeloupe but I am seriously concerned for Puerto Rico since Maria could be a major at that time. Not sure how much further west the models are going to shift you would need the track about 50 miles south of Puerto Rico to keep the highest winds from making landfall.
A track sparing Puerto Rico the worst is still within model error at 60 hours out but there would almost have to be a major change in the synoptic pattern.

[TJRE]

now she goes for the buzzsaw hairdoo

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[RL3AO]

Radar loop seems to have it aiming for the gap between Martinique and Dominica. I'll predict a landfall over Dominica by tomorrow evening.

[NDG]

I did an extrap based on radar, if Maria continues on current heading it will track over Martinique.

280 deg heading is my estimated heading based on 4 hr radar loop,

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 180248
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...MARIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[RL3AO]

NHC has a category 4 over Puerto Rico. Looking very serious.

[Aric Dunn]

ok back .. what did I miss. ...

[Aric Dunn]

Radar is looking scary.. lets hope we dont get RI .. though it seems likely at this point..

[RL3AO]

Dominica most likely to see landfall from a category 3 hurricane on Monday evening. Martinique and Guadeloupe can't rule out hurricane conditions yet.

[Gustywind]

Radar is looking scary.. lets hope we dont get RI .. though it seems likely at this point..

Waouw... hope no, you seem very sure about that ?RI? . I'm tired as Maria is getting me nervous as the others islands. I think that tommrow will be a busy day for us. Continue to monitor seriously Aric, and thanks for all. Keep me informed. That's a very worrying situation!
Good night!

[Aric Dunn]

could just be the low quality radar.. but that does not look like the 28 nm wide eye from the last recon mission..

[Aric Dunn]

Radar is looking scary.. lets hope we dont get RI .. though it seems likely at this point..

Waouw... hope no, you seem very sure about that ?RI? . I'm tired as Maria is getting me nervous as the others islands. I think that tommrow will be a busy day for us. Continue to monitor seriously Aric, and thanks for all. Keep me informed. That's a very worrying situation!
Good night!

no one is sure.. but its quite possible...

[abajan]

NHC has a category 4 over Puerto Rico. Looking very serious.

Yeah, I noticed that a few minutes ago. Very serious situation unfolding for them.

[shah83]

I had been thinking about what a serious hurricane strike would do the debt restructuring processing in Puerto Rico...

[Aric Dunn]

Dominica most likely to see landfall from a category 3 hurricane on Monday evening. Martinique and Guadeloupe can't rule out hurricane conditions yet.

agreed..

[RL3AO]

SHIPs output gives about a 1/3rd chance of 65 kts of intensification in 72 hours, which would be a category 5.

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 5.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 9.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 13.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%)

[Aric Dunn]

SHIPs output gives about a 1/3rd chance of 65 kts of intensification in 72 hours, which would be a category 5.

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 5.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 9.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 13.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%)

right in line with the HWRF>>

[Alyono]

has to move at a 295 heading to reach Dominica. 290 = Martinique landfall