ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

So its down 4 mb and its bending a bit more NW?

Where are you seeing this? Been out for awhile. Looking at satellite pics looks as if the whole storm is moving generally nw or is it my eye?

It's been NNW. I'd still say NNW based on recon.

[CrazyC83]

It seems Maria is trying to fool us all the time. Look safe, then look in danger, back and forth. We need to keep eyes on this.

[CrazyC83]

The center has also crossed 73.0°W a lot sooner than expected. I know many models try to give it a NW tug before it stalls out and waits for the jet stream...there isn't much room for it to turn without hitting land...

[1900hurricane]

It looks like Maria may be forming a gigantic outer eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

The question is - what kind of alerts do we give to the NC coast? Is a Hurricane Watch necessary, or is a TS Watch sufficient?

Looking at the wind probabilities, the chance of tropical storm winds is over 20% (i.e. the level where a watch should be issued) from the NC-SC line to roughly Cape Henlopen, DE, although the "earliest reasonable" is beyond 48 hours north of Duck, NC. As for hurricane force winds, it peaks at about 12% at Cape Hatteras.

Based on that, I would say a tropical storm watch is warranted from Little River Inlet to Duck (with northward extensions in time). A hurricane watch is probably not warranted using those numbers unless the track shifts west (the 20% line for hurricane winds is about 30 miles east of Hatteras).

[seahawkjd]

Out of interest I checked the weather.gov forecasts.

Wilmington: Just showers for the period.

New River Air Station - Tropical Storm Conditions possible Tuesday - Wednesday

Carteret County: Tropical Storm conditions possible Monday Night - Wednesday night

Hatteras: Tropical Storm conditions possible Monday Night - Wednesday night

Virginia Beach: Tropical Storm conditions possible Tuesday - Wednesday night

[seahawkjd]

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
246 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...........

As of 230 PM Sunday...The primary forecast concern through most
of the long term will be impacts associated with Hurricane Maria.
Maria will slowly lift north off the Southeast coast Monday and
Monday night with high pressure centered to the north limiting
its forward progression through mid week. Guidance stalls Maria
off the NC coast Tuesday through late Wednesday before an
approaching upper level trough and attendant cold front finally
push Maria to the east sometime Thursday.

There remains significant spread in the models with both the
track, especially with how close Maria gets to the NC coast
before stalling, and timing with this system, and uncertainty
remains high with the the degree of impacts Maria could bring to
Eastern NC. However, the slow moving nature of this system will
prolong and possibly enhance the impacts that Eastern NC does
receive. At this time, the greatest impacts are expected to be
associated with the large surf impacting the coast and significant
beach erosion is likely with ocean overwash probable in typically
prone areas around times of high tide beginning Tuesday and
peaking Wednesday into Thursday. Highway 12 along the Outer
Banks could be greatly impacted and may become impassable at
times, especially along Pea Island. Coastal flooding along the
southern Pamlico Sound is also possible but the degree of
flooding remains dependent upon how close Maria gets before
recurving out to sea. The key driver for amount of inundation
from storm surge will be the duration of the northerly winds
across the region. The soundside of the Outer Banks from Buxton
to Ocracoke, and possibly Downeast Carteret County, look to be
the most vulnerable locations for sound side flooding at this
time.

In addition, tropical storm force wind speed probabilities
continue to increase, with latest values between 60-70 percent,
meaning tropical storm force winds will be possible, especially
across the eastern third of the region with strongest winds
expected across the Outer Banks. At this time, rainfall amounts
look to be around 1-3 inches across the eastern half of the CWA
to less than an inch across the Coastal Plain. We are not
expecting significant impacts from rainfall flooding at this
time but it could be compounded across the Outer Banks by the
impacts associated with storm surge.

Maria is expected to quickly move away from the area Friday
with an upper level trough approaching from the west. Models not
in good agreement with the strength of the upper trough and
available moisture as it moves into the area but could see a few
showers over the weekend.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Maria is a large hurricane.

[seahawkjd]

I guess its not quite to 73 yet? Also, pressure down to 942.

[Alyono]

been moving due north, maybe even a touch east of north, since late morning

[seahawkjd]

Pressure seems to be down to 939 per recon.

[Vdogg]

It wobbled east, looks like it's about to come back around west though. Weirdest hurricane I've ever seen. They just found 940 mb, but winds haven't increased at all. At this point I'm wondering if we'll have a sub 940 tropical storm.

[Kazmit]

Pressure only 1mb higher than Harvey at peak, but only a Cat 2? Very strange.

[psyclone]

Pressure only 1mb higher than Harvey at peak, but only a Cat 2? Very strange.

It's a large storm. there are 2 ways to pay rent with such a low pressure...either a super intense core or a lower peak intensity with a much larger windfield. it's all about the gradient. Maria looks like a typical well aged hurricane. very big and powerful. dangerous for sure. And I would definitely be paying attention in the mid Atlantic region.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/912031024309207045

[EquusStorm]

36.3 ACE according to the real-time tracker. I feel pretty confident we can hit 40, which will be the first time at least in the satellite era to have three Atlantic storms in one year do so.

In fact, three storms in the same month.

[flamingosun]

The question is - what kind of alerts do we give to the NC coast? Is a Hurricane Watch necessary, or is a TS Watch sufficient?

Looking at the wind probabilities, the chance of tropical storm winds is over 20% (i.e. the level where a watch should be issued) from the NC-SC line to roughly Cape Henlopen, DE, although the "earliest reasonable" is beyond 48 hours north of Duck, NC. As for hurricane force winds, it peaks at about 12% at Cape Hatteras.

Based on that, I would say a tropical storm watch is warranted from Little River Inlet to Duck (with northward extensions in time). A hurricane watch is probably not warranted using those numbers unless the track shifts west (the 20% line for hurricane winds is about 30 miles east of Hatteras).

Here you go:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

[wxman57]

Still looks like the Outer Banks will be brushed by 40-50 mph winds with higher gusts as Maria makes its closest approach on Wednesday afternoon. However, 39 mph winds could reach the coast by mid afternoon Tuesday and continue for over 24 hours. Hurricane-force winds should remain offshore, but maybe not very far offshore.

[Vdogg]

Has Maria run into shear again? North side of the storm almost looks like it's drying out.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 242226
NOAA2 WC15A MARIA HDOB 32 20170924
221700 3009N 07223W 6964 02957 9781 +126 +114 129079 080 059 003 00
221730 3011N 07225W 6949 02974 9783 +122 +112 125079 080 058 004 03
221800 3011N 07228W 6939 02974 9771 +122 +112 122078 079 059 001 03
221830 3009N 07230W 6965 02940 9766 +125 +114 119079 081 059 002 03
221900 3007N 07231W 6953 02948 9759 +125 +113 120080 080 058 004 00
221930 3006N 07232W 6950 02942 9744 +126 +113 120082 082 059 004 00
222000 3004N 07233W 6951 02928 9730 +129 +113 120082 083 059 007 00
222030 3002N 07234W 6956 02910 9715 +130 +118 121083 084 059 013 00
222100 3000N 07235W 6959 02891 9699 +129 //// 123081 082 059 012 01
222130 2958N 07237W 6963 02878 9684 +132 //// 121082 083 059 007 01
222200 2957N 07238W 6958 02869 9668 +132 //// 120083 084 062 004 01
222230 2955N 07239W 6964 02849 9655 +132 +127 119082 084 062 005 00
222300 2953N 07240W 6960 02837 9639 +132 +121 119086 088 065 006 00
222330 2951N 07241W 6956 02823 9612 +136 +131 118083 087 066 011 00
222400 2950N 07242W 6961 02796 9587 +139 +139 120085 086 068 006 00
222430 2948N 07243W 6958 02777 9566 +136 //// 119083 084 067 007 01
222500 2946N 07244W 6960 02752 9539 +141 +136 119082 082 066 013 00
222530 2944N 07246W 6939 02749 9500 +145 +136 117076 080 063 011 00
222600 2943N 07247W 6953 02712 9468 +159 +136 114058 066 058 003 00
222630 2941N 07247W 6966 02686 9444 +172 +138 115037 039 041 003 00