ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AxaltaRacing24]

Could THIS be Lee and (if it develops) TD14 become Maria?

Its a race to lee

Maria has a more biblical feel than Lee...take that for what its worth...

It ends in "a", it is a female, it's an M storm, etc. That's what makes it sound threatening for me. It just sounds like a hurricane.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its a race to lee

Maria has a more biblical feel than Lee...take that for what its worth...

It ends in "a", it is a female, it's an M storm, etc. That's what makes it sound threatening for me. It just sounds like a hurricane.

How do you solve a problem like Maria...

[jlauderdal]

Could THIS be Lee and (if it develops) TD14 become Maria?

Its a race to lee

Maria has a more biblical feel than Lee...take that for what its worth...

Irma, wilma, maria..

[EquusStorm]

Katrina, Rita, uh... Andrewa? Gustava? Ikea, lol?

[ColdMiser123]

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical cyclone is
likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward around 20 mph. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor
the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[CFLHurricane]

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical cyclone is
likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward around 20 mph. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor
the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

96L is really cruising at 20 mph!

[1900hurricane]

Katrina, Rita, uh... Andrewa? Gustava? Ikea, lol?

Just about spit out my beverage here. : P

Anyway, I wouldn't upgrade based on recent microwave (not enough confidence in a closed circulation based on streamlines), but it's getting close. It'll be interesting to see what ASCAT reveals, assuming a clean hit of course.

[flamingosun]

Please, please, Please. . . . not another hit on those islands!

[MGC]

96L is starting to get that tumbleweed look. Should be upgraded sometime this weekend IMO.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Please, please, Please. . . . not another ht on those islands!

There is no getting out of this one..

the only question is how strong..

Presently It looks to be organizing much faster than the models. So given that the environment looks pretty good up to the islands with some shear as it approaches briefly. Seeing a strong hurricane is quite possible.

its very likely already closed looks very good. . if convection persists like this overnight upgrade 5am or def by 11am.

[Gustywind]

Please, please, Please. . . . not another ht on those islands!

There is no getting out of this one..

the only question is how strong..

Presently It looks to be organizing much faster than the models. So given that the environment looks pretty good up to the islands with some shear as it approaches briefly. Seeing a strong hurricane is quite possible.

its very likely already closed looks very good. . if convection persists like this overnight upgrade 5am or def by 11am.

Aric looks like something to keep a real eye on? Do you think that the Leewards could be concerned? What are you latest and best thougts in terms of in accurate intensity and path? Thanks.

[AubreyStorm]

Please, please, Please. . . . not another ht on those islands!

There is no getting out of this one..

the only question is how strong..

Presently It looks to be organizing much faster than the models. So given that the environment looks pretty good up to the islands with some shear as it approaches briefly. Seeing a strong hurricane is quite possible.

its very likely already closed looks very good. . if convection persists like this overnight upgrade 5am or def by 11am.

Aric looks like something to keep a real eye on? Do you think that the Leewards could be concerned? What are you latest and best thougts in terms of in accurate intensity and path? Thanks.

Waiting too for the response!

[gatorcane]

Gusty, the Leewards should really be paying attention. From the NHC 8pm EST outlook:

Interests in the Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor
the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on a storm or hurricane impacting the areas NHC mentioned above and we are talking medium range not long-range so confidence is greater.

[otowntiger]

Please, please, Please. . . . not another ht on those islands!

There is no getting out of this one..

the only question is how strong..

Presently It looks to be organizing much faster than the models. So given that the environment looks pretty good up to the islands with some shear as it approaches briefly. Seeing a strong hurricane is quite possible.

its very likely already closed looks very good. . if convection persists like this overnight upgrade 5am or def by 11am.

So with it organizing so quickly and with the forward speed so high isn't this a great candidate for a re-curve? It's moving twice as fast as Jose, so it could definitely get to that longitude well in time to follow the weakness left by Jose and turn sharply north, correct?

[gatorcane]

So with it organizing so quickly and with the forward speed so high isn't this a great candidate for a re-curve? It's moving twice as fast as Jose, so it could definitely get to that longitude well in time to follow the weakness left by Jose and turn sharply north, correct?

Yes that is definitely a possibility if Jose moves out slower than expected.

[Aric Dunn]

There is no getting out of this one..

the only question is how strong..

Presently It looks to be organizing much faster than the models. So given that the environment looks pretty good up to the islands with some shear as it approaches briefly. Seeing a strong hurricane is quite possible.

its very likely already closed looks very good. . if convection persists like this overnight upgrade 5am or def by 11am.

Aric looks like something to keep a real eye on? Do you think that the Leewards could be concerned? What are you latest and best thougts in terms of in accurate intensity and path? Thanks.

Waiting too for the response!

Its in my post what I think

[Gustywind]

Gusty, the Leewards should really be paying attention. From the NHC 8pm EST outlook:

Interests in the Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor
the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on a storm or hurricane impacting the areas NHC mentioned above and we are talking medium range not long-range so confidence is greater.

Hi my friend Gatorcane glad to see you and thanks for the answer. I know that you have often bright and pertinent thoughts. Yes, we have to monitor closely this feature in case of. This season is so unpredictable, keeping our fingers crossed especially for those who are in the Northern Leewards. Let's wait and see what could happens during the next couple of hours...
Regards
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Aric looks like something to keep a real eye on? Do you think that the Leewards could be concerned? What are you latest and best thougts in terms of in accurate intensity and path? Thanks.

Waiting too for the response!

Its in my post what I think

Ok thanks, i was thinking that you have more infos! So the Leewards should be prepared for a hurricane Monday near Guadeloupe till the Northern Leewards? You said strong hurricane????:roll: Which category not: cat 2, or 3, or even 4?

[abajan]

Please, please, Please. . . . not another ht on those islands!

There is no getting out of this one..

the only question is how strong..

Presently It looks to be organizing much faster than the models. So given that the environment looks pretty good up to the islands with some shear as it approaches briefly. Seeing a strong hurricane is quite possible.

its very likely already closed looks very good. . if convection persists like this overnight upgrade 5am or def by 11am.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc17/ ... W.72pc.jpg

Aric looks like something to keep a real eye on? Do you think that the Leewards could be concerned? What are you latest and best thougts in terms of in accurate intensity and path? Thanks.

Gusty, I don't know Aric's thoughts, but I don't like the way this is looking. Not at all. And the last three runs of the GFS are remarkably consistent in taking a hurricane into your general location. Although Barbados would be on the weaker side of the system, we would still be affected. Our MET Office is forecasting the possibility of 6 to 8 inches of rain and sea swells up to 6 meters!

[Aric Dunn]

Waiting too for the response!

Its in my post what I think

Ok thanks, i was thinking that you have more infos! So the Leewards should be prepared for a hurricane Monday near Guadeloupe till the Northern Leewards? You said strong hurricane????:roll: Which category not: cat 2, or 3, or even 4?

wont know until it develops and starts deepening. too early to say. but the potential is there.