ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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wxman57
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3001 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:51 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
From what I read in the storm surge warning, they are expecting 2-4 feet of inundation on the sound side of the OBX which will definitely cause some big problems if that verifies. Already the coast guard hydro gauge is measuring nearly 3 feet and moderate flooding begins at 3.5 feet. Cedar Island is at 2.4 feet and moderate flooding begins at 4 feet there. The duration of the winds and large area will continue to pile the waters up the next 24 hours and usually experience around this area tells me the sounds rise a bit more than forecast most of the time.


Looks like that includes the regular tides as well. I was talking about the water rise in addition to normal tides being 2 to 2.5 ft. Regular tides are about 2ft or so above MSL.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3002 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:55 pm

I think we are all burned out after the last month, plus it is no longer seriously affecting land.

I do think Maria might try to re-strength once it moves east of 70W, as it breaks free from Jose's cold wake.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3003 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:34 pm

Down to a tropical storm. And on the real-time tracker, it's passed 40 ACE now, so unofficially it's the third to do so in the Atlantic this month alone. It'd be interesting to go back all the way to 1851 and see if that's happened before (1893 maybe? 1933? No idea) because it hasn't in the satellite era, for sure.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Sound/OBX

#3004 Postby syfr » Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:54 pm

Here's a view of Silver Lake harbor on Ocracoke

http://ocracokeharborinn.com/webcams/

I've stayed here 15-20 times and water level here might be up 10-18" from a typical afternoon. Certainly not going to be a huge problem on Ocracoke, thankfully
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3005 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 26, 2017 5:38 pm

Note that Maria has had pressure only down in the 970s today. Compare that to those ridiculously low pressures the GFS runs of just 3-4 days ago had for the current time (still available at Tropical Tidbits' archived runs):

Run SLP as of 18Z 9/26 (mb)
18Z of 9/22 929
0Z of 9/23 937
6Z of 9/23 935
12Z of 9/23 939
18Z of 9/23 938

Now watch as we move forward and the runs correct for the bias of too low pressure:
0Z of 9/24 945
6Z of 9/24 949
12Z of 9/24 950
18Z of 9/24 962
0Z of 9/25 964
6Z of 9/25 966
12Z of 9/25 968
18Z of 9/25 969
0Z of 9/26 973

This is just more evidence that the GFS has a serious low SLP bias for TCs at least near the SE US coast. That needs to be fixed, if possible. Regardless, it is important that GFS users like us learn from verifications like this and keep biases in mind.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3006 Postby artist » Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:36 pm

From stormcarib.com

Looking for an AT&T customer in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria?

We can help you reach them.

First, enter the cell phone number of the AT&T customer you’re trying to find in Puerto Rico. Then, enter your number.

When that person connects to our wireless network in Puerto Rico, we’ll give them your number and let them know you’re trying to contact them.

We’ll email you when more service is back up and running so you can try to reach them again.


More Info:
http://about.att.com/story/att_creates_ ... _rico.html

Website:
https://www.att.com/mariaupdate/#/

--
Gert van Dijken
Caribbean Hurricane Network
http://stormcarib.com
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Re: Sound/OBX

#3007 Postby Happy Pelican » Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:13 pm

syfr wrote:Here's a view of Silver Lake harbor on Ocracoke

http://ocracokeharborinn.com/webcams/

I've stayed here 15-20 times and water level here might be up 10-18" from a typical afternoon. Certainly not going to be a huge problem on Ocracoke, thankfully


Ocracoke is one of my all time favorite places in the US. That little slice of heaven has taken so many beatings it’s a relief to see they should be good this go round. :)
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3008 Postby R o x » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:04 am

is this about the current storm on the Atlantic ?

Dave Barker saw it coming timely, in 1970 ;)

or was there a Maria storm heading for Jamaica at the time ?

have a listen: https://instaud.io/1ihr
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3009 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:05 am

Image

Image
the last pass
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3010 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:06 am

Once again we have Hurricane Maria. I do think that it may say stronger longer though, since water warms up some as it moves east.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3011 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:04 pm

Why is Maria still being officially called a hurricane when Recon found no such evidence at the surface?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3012 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:03 pm

US Navy evacuates residents from storm-devastated Dominica
The US Navy performed rescues off the Caribbean island of Dominica in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. The storm has left the majority of the island's buildings damaged, and dozens of people are still missing.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-41394218/us-navy-evacuates-residents-from-storm-devastated-dominica
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3013 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:03 pm

Bermuda radar. Outer bands lurking to our west. Conditions should decay tomorrow as Maria passes by.

http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3014 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:14 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Why is Maria still being officially called a hurricane when Recon found no such evidence at the surface?


Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Thursday, Sep. 28, 2017 0:00 Z
Wind (1 min. avg.):
65 knots (75 mph | 33 m/s | 120 km/h)
Pressure:
979 mb (28.91 inHg | 979 hPa)
Location at the time:
218 statute miles (351 km) to the E (81°) from Kill Devil Hills, NC, USA.
Coordinates:
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3015 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:12 am

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

Maria's satellite presentation has not changed much during the past
six hours, with 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear continuing to
displace much of the deep convection to the east of the center.
Despite the discrepancy between aircraft observations and Dvorak
estimates noted yesterday, a pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours
ago showed maximum winds in the 50-55 kt range. Even with the
assumption that the resolution of the ASCAT data may not have
revealed the highest winds, an analysis suggests that Maria has
weakened back to a 60-kt tropical storm. Little change in intensity
is anticipated during the next two days while Maria moves over sea
surface temperatures of 26-27 degrees Celsius, and while vertical
shear decreases during the next 24 hours. After 48 hours, a marked
jump in shear and much colder waters should induce more weakening,
and model guidance indicates that Maria should complete
extratropical transition by day 3. The extratropical low should
then be absorbed by a larger system over the northeastern Atlantic
by day 4. This scenario is in agreement with guidance provided by
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Maria is becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and is
now moving toward the east-northeast, or 060/7 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn eastward very soon, but then turn back toward the
east-northeast in 36 hours as a positively tilted trough moves off
the New England and Atlantic Canada coasts. The speed differences
among the track models are not as significant as they were
yesterday, although the updated NHC track forecast was nudged
southward for much of the forecast period to follow an overall
modest shift in the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 36.8N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 36.8N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 37.0N 64.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 38.0N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 40.0N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 46.4N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3016 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:21 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Why is Maria still being officially called a hurricane when Recon found no such evidence at the surface?


Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Thursday, Sep. 28, 2017 0:00 Z
Wind (1 min. avg.):
65 knots (75 mph | 33 m/s | 120 km/h)
Pressure:
979 mb (28.91 inHg | 979 hPa)
Location at the time:
218 statute miles (351 km) to the E (81°) from Kill Devil Hills, NC, USA.
Coordinates:


That was the first pass and not the subsequent passes through the center. Oh well, not all that important just think Maria was weakening and just like when strengthening trends are found by Recon the NHC usually goes with the latest report, here they didn't.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3017 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:39 pm

I hope both Maria and Lee can hold on for just a few more hours. The entire month of September was active with at least one storm active every single day. I don't want that to be broken
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3018 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:34 am

^^^ Still a TS and this is the last day of the month.



Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017

...MARIA BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 50.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 50.5 West. Maria is
moving toward the east-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h), and this
heading with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Maria is
expected to become an extratropical low later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3019 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:58 am

HurricaneRyan wrote:I hope both Maria and Lee can hold on for just a few more hours. The entire month of September was active with at least one storm active every single day. I don't want that to be broken


This is the first time since 2004 that this happened. At that time the continuous cyclone activity lasted from 24 August to 3 October, and now we also will be near to it (Harvey regenerated on 23 August, but it seems that Maria will became extratropical today or at the latest tomorrow).
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3020 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:10 am

I'm a little skeptical that Maria will make it to 18Z.
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