ATL: MARIA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4121
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

ATL: MARIA - Models

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:29 am

Models and Guidance go here.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 501
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: NATL: Invest 96L - Models

#2 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:51 am

06z GFS carries this into the northern Caribbean through hour 180. We all know it's a crap shoot beyond that, but it does have it crossing Haiti toward an eventual East coast landfall. Steering current very weak in the Atlantic right now. GFS develops a trough behind Jose in the Bahamas that future Lee gets pulled toward.

Image
0 likes   
Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5371
Age: 52
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#3 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:45 am

looking forward to the next run of the NAM to give us guidance on this thing.... :wink:
4 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20734
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#4 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:48 am

12Z GFS coming in stronger through 60 hours so far.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#5 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:10 am

this is cruel

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.5N 44.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2017 36 11.5N 44.3W 1010 29
1200UTC 16.09.2017 48 12.4N 48.8W 1004 37
0000UTC 17.09.2017 60 13.3N 51.8W 1000 38
1200UTC 17.09.2017 72 14.2N 54.1W 998 43
0000UTC 18.09.2017 84 15.0N 55.5W 993 50
1200UTC 18.09.2017 96 15.8N 56.5W 988 59
0000UTC 19.09.2017 108 16.6N 57.5W 983 61
1200UTC 19.09.2017 120 17.3N 58.8W 981 61
0000UTC 20.09.2017 132 17.9N 60.2W 977 66
1200UTC 20.09.2017 144 18.5N 61.6W 973 67
1 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4406
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#6 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:11 am

jlauderdal wrote:looking forward to the next run of the NAM to give us guidance on this thing.... :wink:


Roland Steadham would be very disappointed in you for even mentioning the words "NAM" for tropical guidance.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
1 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1711
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#7 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:20 am

Alyono wrote:this is cruel

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.5N 44.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2017 36 11.5N 44.3W 1010 29
1200UTC 16.09.2017 48 12.4N 48.8W 1004 37
0000UTC 17.09.2017 60 13.3N 51.8W 1000 38
1200UTC 17.09.2017 72 14.2N 54.1W 998 43
0000UTC 18.09.2017 84 15.0N 55.5W 993 50
1200UTC 18.09.2017 96 15.8N 56.5W 988 59
0000UTC 19.09.2017 108 16.6N 57.5W 983 61
1200UTC 19.09.2017 120 17.3N 58.8W 981 61
0000UTC 20.09.2017 132 17.9N 60.2W 977 66
1200UTC 20.09.2017 144 18.5N 61.6W 973 67

North of the islands...
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

marionstorm
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 80
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:46 am

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#8 Postby marionstorm » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:23 am

Please no I can't handle another Duke Energy hurricane. Civilization will collapse in Florida if this comes anywhere near us.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20734
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#9 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:28 am

Hispaniola the target on the last several GFS runs. Problem is GFS is trending stronger with this:

Image
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1711
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#10 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:29 am

gatorcane wrote:Hispaniola the target on the last several GFS runs. Problem is GFS is trending stronger with this:

Image

I think that may very well be another close call, a wobble can be the difference between a hit on islands of a hit on the shredder.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1286
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Deltona, Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#11 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:33 am

UKMET plots:

Image
0 likes   

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1286
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Deltona, Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#12 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:38 am

Extremely skeptical long range, but 12z GFS has Jose hanging around in the subtropical Atlantic with ridging extending off the Carolinas:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6342
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#13 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:42 am

Can we do away with the "shredder"reference? I am a bit more sensitive I guess after what what we have all been through most recently with Irma, and Harvey a few weeks ago prior.

We know what Hispaniola's mountains can do to disrupt cyclones. But, that "shredder" you refer to has thousands and thousands of people who live on it who would be in harms way of another tropical cyclone.

I am not meaning to be difficult at all. I am just asking to be sensitive to the situation. We don't need "shredder" referenced please. You can make your points without the unnecessary play on words please!!
14 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1474
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#14 Postby xironman » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:48 am

Once again way off, but this is an uh-oh map with the negative trough

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5371
Age: 52
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: RE: Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#15 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:04 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:looking forward to the next run of the NAM to give us guidance on this thing.... :wink:


Roland Steadham would be very disappointed in you for even mentioning the words "NAM" for tropical guidance.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
I miss the days of roland, noe and kamal. Roland was back on 10 last year for a few months, kamal ran into the law
0 likes   

User avatar
SEASON_CANCELED
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 568
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#16 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:38 pm

models no good this far out. will know if conus threat middle of next week
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20734
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#17 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:04 pm

MUCH weaker on the Euro out through 48 hours. Weaker would mean more west in this case.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20734
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#18 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:10 pm

As a result of showing a weaker system (delayed development), the EC has shifted way south compared to the 00Z run but is still NE of the latest GFS. 72 hour graphic below.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5474
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#19 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:11 pm

12z Euro is also faster through 72hrs. and in line with the GFS more so now.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1286
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Deltona, Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#20 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:20 pm

The 00z ECMWF and GFS have development further west along the wave axis due to a stronger vort signature from 97L, I highlighted this in the graphic below:

Image
2 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests