ATL: MARIA - Models

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#61 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:48 pm

Uhhhhhhh...
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#62 Postby Bizzles » Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:13 am

2 Long Isl landfalls less than a week apart...
...GFS done lost it's mind :lol:
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#63 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:59 am

Euro initialized.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#64 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:20 am

Keeps it weak near the islands.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#65 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:51 am

989mb heading NW near the SE Bahamas, ridge appears to build on top of it.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#66 Postby N2FSU » Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:41 am

06z GFS with a big shift west. Storm moving WNW at +234hr
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#67 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:54 am

There are three factors that make that GFS track more likely.

Lower latitude genesis.
Weaker initial systems tend to track west.
TD 14 is to the east of it which usually keeps the track further south.

Got my generator a couple weeks ago just in time for Irma, already overdue for an oil change and no signs of power restoration in my neighborhood yet.
Fortunately Floridians don't seem to be hoarding gas on the west coast.
If you run the generator only at night
your gas will last a lot longer.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#68 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:23 am

00Z UKMET puts this in a very similar location as Irma:

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#69 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:26 am

Irma fatigue must be setting in, no mention the 6 GFS sends a cat 3/4 in along the south coast of South Carolina.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#70 Postby gtalum » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:58 am

BobHarlem wrote:Irma fatigue must be setting in, no mention the 6 GFS sends a cat 3/4 in along the south coast of South Carolina.


It was Long Island on the previous run. It's too far out to be really meaningful at this point.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#71 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:59 am

I also watched the GFS struggle mightily with the cluster that was 91L (Harvey) and 92L a couple of weeks ago at this point in their life.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#72 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:11 am

Image
12z

TVCN is the consensus to watch, over BVI... Ugh
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#73 Postby Ken711 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:16 am

Blown Away wrote:Image
12z


Could track similar up the mid-atlantic as Jose.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#74 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:32 am

Most 00z EPS Ensembles lose 96L after it tracks over Hispaniola, otherwise the majority don't show much intensification with it.

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#75 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:37 am

If this goes over Hispaniola, this might just die a painful death though...but yeah we're all tired right now.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#76 Postby bvigal » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:42 am

Euro hasn't a good grip on this yet, 00z showing 1010mb crossing Leewards. As a rainmaker, still too close for comfort to denuded islands hit by Irma.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#77 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:56 am

12Z GFS has yet another hurricane hit for Central Lesser Antilles and a little stronger than 06Z:

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#78 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:30 am

Another blow to the islands unfortunately but recurves pretty easily on this run and follows Jose.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#79 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:31 am

12z GFS has 96L in nearly the IDENTICAL location at 198 hours that Jose is right now at 00.
Last edited by toad strangler on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#80 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:33 am

Doesn't look like a recurve:

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