ATL: MARIA - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

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[Vdogg]

18z making a run for landfall at 90 hrs. Eye almost on OBX.

[Alyono]

looks like it brings winds near 65 kts to the Outer Banks

[Vdogg]

I swear the GFS is trolling us. "How close can I get to landfall without actually coming on shore". No sugarcoating this, That's a decent size hurricane stalling on OBX. A bad day for them and Hampton Roads. That said, I don't want to put too much stock in this. It IS the 18z run afterall. I'll give it another full day of model watching before I start to prepare. If it's still showing this solution at 18z tomorrow, time to stock up.

[stormreader]

18z making a run for landfall at 90 hrs. Eye almost on OBX.

Getting closer all the time. And I still think its going to come in a little south of there, into the Pamlico Sound area (think its called). Believe the town is called Atlantic or Atlantic Beach. Eye up through there, just south of the Outer Banks and then moving into the Sound. Going with that.

[stormreader]

18z making a run for landfall at 90 hrs. Eye almost on OBX.

Getting closer all the time. And I still think its going to come in a little south of there, into the Pamlico Sound area (think its called). Believe the town is called Atlantic or Atlantic Beach. Eye up through there, just south of the Outer Banks and then moving into the Sound. Going with that.

Be surprised too, if its not at least a good solid Cat 3 at 125 mph.

[seahawkjd]

18z making a run for landfall at 90 hrs. Eye almost on OBX.

Getting closer all the time. And I still think its going to come in a little south of there, into the Pamlico Sound area (think its called). Believe the town is called Atlantic or Atlantic Beach. Eye up through there, just south of the Outer Banks and then moving into the Sound. Going with that.

Be surprised too, if its not at least a good solid Cat 3 at 125 mph.

Actually Atlantic and Atlantic Beach are both there. Atlantic Beach is maybe 30 miles west of Atlantic which is on the eastern edge of the county (Carteret).

[emeraldislenc]

That is getting to close for comfort

[hurricaneCW]

Gfs is trending with a flatter trough almost to the point where it may leave Maria behind.

[emeraldislenc]

Are odds going up for a nc hit?

[Vdogg]

Recon just had a reading of 947.1. It's dropped 6mb in the past few hours.

[seahawkjd]

Recon just had a reading of 947.1. It's dropped 6mb in the past few hours.

I'm seeing 945.

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 99 KT 131 / 25 NM 22:52:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 110 / 13 KT
;

Dropsonde: pressure 945mb.

[CrazyC83]

If this stalls out over, say, northeast NC, that could push a lot of water into Hampton Roads.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Its looking a nailbiter on the ukmet

[Vdogg]

Recon fixes have it moving due north. It's made it's turn it appears.

[Vdogg]

Its looking a nailbiter on the ukmet

How does it compare to the previous run?

[invest man]

I think the sharp turn ene is due to the weakness left by Jose. Look at the model where they last show Jose remnants and it looks like Maria is head to that spot. Not saying front and ULL is not playing in it but it funny how it takes off toward those remnants. I wonder if models are overly hanging these remnants around to long?

[txwatcher91]

I think the sharp turn ene is due to the weakness left by Jose. Look at the model where they last show Jose remnants and it looks like Maria is head to that spot. Not saying front and ULL is not playing in it but it funny how it takes off toward those remnants. I wonder if models are overly hanging these remnants around to long?

There is a trough swinging through southern Canada that will act to kick it east. The concern is the GFS has been trending a bit weaker and flatter with that trough and building a HP in instead. It’s possible if that trend continues that Maria could get left behind... I hope not.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Gfs is trending with a flatter trough almost to the point where it may leave Maria behind.

I wouldn't at all be shocked if this happens. For example, in our own regional forecast discussion, out of Caribou Maine, it notes that there is uncertainty if the cold front will pass through on Thursday or Friday (due to the trending flatter and slower trough)

[invest man]

I think the sharp turn ene is due to the weakness left by Jose. Look at the model where they last show Jose remnants and it looks like Maria is head to that spot. Not saying front and ULL is not playing in it but it funny how it takes off toward those remnants. I wonder if models are overly hanging these remnants around to long?

The being left behind doesn't sound good! Are you thinking over Hatteras or even ENC/ Albemarle and Pamlico sounds!

There is a trough swinging through southern Canada that will act to kick it east. The concern is the GFS has been trending a bit weaker and flatter with that trough and building a HP in instead. It’s possible if that trend continues that Maria could get left behind... I hope not.