ATL: MARIA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1283
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1601 Postby txwatcher91 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:32 pm

invest man wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
invest man wrote:I think the sharp turn ene is due to the weakness left by Jose. Look at the model where they last show Jose remnants and it looks like Maria is head to that spot. Not saying front and ULL is not playing in it but it funny how it takes off toward those remnants. I wonder if models are overly hanging these remnants around to long?


The being left behind doesn't sound good! Are you thinking over Hatteras or even ENC/ Albemarle and Pamlico sounds!

There is a trough swinging through southern Canada that will act to kick it east. The concern is the GFS has been trending a bit weaker and flatter with that trough and building a HP in instead. It’s possible if that trend continues that Maria could get left behind... I hope not.


I don’t think it will get left behind... but it’s something to watch out for as a trough passing too far north would leave it drifting around either offshore or just inland. Even then a 24 hour storm just sitting and pounding the coast is going to be bad.
0 likes   

invest man
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 142
Joined: Sun Aug 17, 2008 8:12 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1602 Postby invest man » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:39 pm

ENC has been really wet all summer. It would not take much rain and probably 40kt winds to knock over trees causing power outages along with stream and river flooding! Just something to consider moving forward for this area.
1 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3270
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1603 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:40 pm

May drift NW a little now that the current trough has split but Maria is moving so slowly the forecast Canadian short wave should take her out.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15968
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1604 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:59 pm

Update model errors.

Image
Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
https://twitter.com/codyyeary
Graduate student at NC State studying tropical waves

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1283
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1605 Postby txwatcher91 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:19 pm

Wow thanks for sharing those model graphics. The Euro GFS seems to be on fire with the 96-120 hour range and equal with the Euro at 72 hours. Interesting stuff there.
0 likes   

invest man
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 142
Joined: Sun Aug 17, 2008 8:12 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1606 Postby invest man » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:20 pm

RL3AO wrote:Update model errors.

Image
Image
Image
Image


Trying to learn here. Which model is working better at this point? I have my idea. But what does the graph really reveal?
0 likes   

emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 308
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1607 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:30 pm

Can someone give an update on the models
1 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13387
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1608 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:56 pm

0Z running, heading toward the coast in this frame.

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13387
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1609 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:59 pm

Stalled

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5530
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: NOT a State-caster

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1610 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:00 pm

tolakram wrote:0Z running, heading toward the coast in this frame.



Inner core from a 3/4 at that point along the OBX. Wild year in progress per GFS

Edit 3/upper 940s.
1 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6497
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1611 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:02 pm

Steve wrote:
tolakram wrote:0Z running, heading toward the coast in this frame.



Inner core from a 3/4 at that point along the OBX. Wild year in progress per GFS


That would probably be a strong 1 or a weak cat 2, but a very large one
1 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13387
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1612 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:04 pm

0Z GFS animation
Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1283
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1613 Postby txwatcher91 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:05 pm

The GFS stalling the center right on the Outer Banks would be really bad. The erosion and water piling up into the sounds will cause a lot of issues even if it is a cat 1 or 2.
1 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13387
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1614 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:07 pm

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 308
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1615 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:14 pm

Do y'all think the NHC might bump it more to the west on Sunday?
0 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4337
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

ATL: MARIA - Models

#1616 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:25 pm

Image

00z UKMET with a slight East shift to now be nearly on top of the NHC track


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
0 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1283
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1617 Postby txwatcher91 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:28 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:Do y'all think the NHC might bump it more to the west on Sunday?


Only if the Euro goes west. They will stick with it and follow any adjustments it makes.
1 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6497
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1618 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:32 pm

another east shift for ukmet

HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 72.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2017 0 26.7N 72.4W 945 81
1200UTC 24.09.2017 12 28.4N 72.9W 938 80
0000UTC 25.09.2017 24 29.8N 73.1W 938 80
1200UTC 25.09.2017 36 30.8N 73.4W 938 86
0000UTC 26.09.2017 48 31.9N 73.4W 933 83
1200UTC 26.09.2017 60 33.0N 73.6W 943 76
0000UTC 27.09.2017 72 34.0N 73.4W 949 74
1200UTC 27.09.2017 84 34.9N 73.4W 955 73
0000UTC 28.09.2017 96 35.3N 72.7W 955 72
1200UTC 28.09.2017 108 35.3N 71.3W 957 75
0000UTC 29.09.2017 120 35.2N 69.1W 961 68
1200UTC 29.09.2017 132 35.9N 65.8W 961 69
0000UTC 30.09.2017 144 38.6N 60.0W 967 65
1 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6497
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1619 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:33 pm

canadian shifts a bit west and is now in good agreement with ukmet track
1 likes   

emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 308
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1620 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:39 pm

What does this mean for NC?
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest