ATL: MARIA - Models

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Steve
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1621 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:22 am

Alyono wrote:
Steve wrote:
tolakram wrote:0Z running, heading toward the coast in this frame.



Inner core from a 3/4 at that point along the OBX. Wild year in progress per GFS


That would probably be a strong 1 or a weak cat 2, but a very large one


For sure adjusted. I should have said that. I've only been out that way once, but I love all the NC islands. Hopefully it's more bark than bite.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1622 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:18 am

ec back west. Consensus may be shifting to between 74 and 74.5
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1623 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:53 am

You guys in the mid Atlantic, get prepared...if it passes you by that's great, but be prepared just in case.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1624 Postby GCANE » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:27 am

00Z GFS
Stalls out here Wednesday afternoon & evening

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1625 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:55 am

Decent shift east on 06z GFS. It also shifted east on yesterday's 6z only to come back west so I wouldn't hang my hat on it just yet.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1626 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:06 am

One thing to note is GFS is way faster than Euro. Gfs has impacts Wednesday while Euro not until Friday. Both solutions are at the 4-6 day range so additional changes in track are still likely.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1627 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:03 am

FWIW, 6z Navgem came significantly west. I know, it's Navgem. Useless for track but perhaps useful for trend.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1628 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:06 am

Vdogg wrote:FWIW, 6z Navgem came significantly west. I know, it's Navgem. Useless for track but perhaps useful for trend.


Link or picture? If nothing else the Navgem model always looks cool.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1629 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:09 am

seahawkjd wrote:
Vdogg wrote:FWIW, 6z Navgem came significantly west. I know, it's Navgem. Useless for track but perhaps useful for trend.


Link or picture? If nothing else the Navgem model always looks cool.
I've been asking for days how to post a gif on this site but no one answered.
Here's a link.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1630 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:11 am

6z HMON with a wild, laughable, swing east. Doesn't even make it past 73w, even though the storm is almost at 73w right now and traveling NNW. That's not going to verify.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1631 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:35 am

Do y'all think the threat to NC has gone up or down based on the models?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1632 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:39 am

Most of the models including the Euro and GFS so it getting too close for comfort where a wobble could mean a lot.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1633 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:49 am

emeraldislenc wrote:Do y'all think the threat to NC has gone up or down based on the models?

It's stayed the same. TS conditions are pretty much a guarantee at this point. The real question is whether hurricane conditions will come into play, which of course depends largely on track. There's been no real trend today, some runs are east and some came back west.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1634 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:37 am

Thanks
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1635 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:25 am

A closer look at the 00z EPS (Euro) Ensembles.

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1636 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:31 am

What does that imply?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1637 Postby Stellar » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:32 am

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1638 Postby stormreader » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:36 am

TheStormExpert wrote:A closer look at the 00z EPS (Euro) Ensembles.

Image

As with the GFS ensembles posted yesterday morning, I think the key is the tracks taken by those western members. Still a pretty wide spread overall, but the western members actually lurch west and onto the coast. This west move in the Carolina coastal waters has been hinted at for some time now, and I think is going to become the final solution. Going to stick with a NC landfall at about Atlantic NC just at the south end of Pamlico Sound.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1639 Postby MrJames » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:37 am

The 00z UKMet ensembles have shifted east.

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1640 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:47 am


Maybe that's why it's so weak. I've never seen a 947 mb storm with winds so low. Seems like recon is finding a low end Cat 2. With no land interaction for a few days and warmer water, it should have no problem completing.
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