ATL: MARIA - Models

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Vdogg
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1641 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:53 am

12z GFS north and east of 0z. Similar to 6z but weaker.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1642 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:59 am

Gfs has a weaker ridge causing the storm to turn NE between hours 12 and 18 before resuming north. This seems to account for the east shift. The ridge has been steadily weaker each run since 0z. Is this something likely to happen or is the GFS overdoing this weakness?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1643 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:03 am

That could be a good sign
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1644 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:13 am

slight west shift by ukmet

HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 72.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2017 0 28.3N 72.9W 945 74
0000UTC 25.09.2017 12 29.7N 73.4W 950 71
1200UTC 25.09.2017 24 30.7N 73.6W 949 77
0000UTC 26.09.2017 36 31.7N 74.0W 946 77
1200UTC 26.09.2017 48 32.8N 74.0W 942 80
0000UTC 27.09.2017 60 33.6N 74.0W 946 73
1200UTC 27.09.2017 72 34.4N 73.8W 950 78
0000UTC 28.09.2017 84 34.5N 73.5W 953 70
1200UTC 28.09.2017 96 34.2N 72.6W 955 76
0000UTC 29.09.2017 108 33.7N 70.8W 967 65
1200UTC 29.09.2017 120 34.7N 67.9W 969 69
0000UTC 30.09.2017 132 38.6N 61.6W 967 70
1200UTC 30.09.2017 144 46.4N 52.5W 957 70
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1645 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:28 am

cmc west shift
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1646 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:28 am

emeraldislenc wrote:That could be a good sign

Could be, but I've heard elsewhere that the ridge is actually stronger than forecast so I'm confused as to which is the case. Gfs has also been persistent with bringing this further north. UKMET went east this morning but now has come back west. Seems like uncertainty is increasing at about the 4 day mark.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1647 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:31 am

Which model to trust?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1648 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:40 am

emeraldislenc wrote:Which model to trust?

As always, I'm waiting on the Euro...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1649 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:00 pm

Vdogg wrote:

Maybe that's why it's so weak. I've never seen a 947 mb storm with winds so low. Seems like recon is finding a low end Cat 2. With no land interaction for a few days and warmer water, it should have no problem completing.


Sandy of 2012 was at one point 940 mb and cat 1 (80 knots) before extratropical transition:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

One thing probably allowing this to occur is that background pressures aren't that high to the north thanks to the remnant lower pressure from Jose.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1650 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:14 pm

12Z GEFS mean: east shift vs the 6Z GEFS mean and about 2 degrees/120 miles east of the 18Z GEFS mean. One member comes onshore and goes inland, a couple of others are very nearshore, and the rest are offshore.

Edit: 12Z GEFS mean doesn't get any further west than about 73.2W (tomorrow). But she's already near 73.0W and is still moving NNW. So, the 12Z GEFS mean is liable to end up east of the actual track.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1651 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:56 pm

Euro seems pretty much identical to previous runs as best I can tell (through 24)
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1652 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:02 pm

Seems slightly NW at 48 (please tell me if I'm off on this).

NW as 72 as well (both based on looking at yesterday's 12z)

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1653 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:15 pm

seahawkjd wrote:Seems slightly NW at 48 (please tell me if I'm off on this).

NW as 72 as well (both based on looking at yesterday's 12z)

Image

Did a trend gif, definitely Northwest at 72. Seems faster too.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1654 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:17 pm

The 12Z Euro is well west of the 12Z GFS/GEFS mean, but is actually a bit east of the 0Z Euro track.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1655 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:17 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Edit: 12Z GEFS mean doesn't get any further west than about 73.2W (tomorrow). But she's already near 73.0W and is still moving NNW. So, the 12Z GEFS mean is liable to end up east of the actual track.

That's because 12z GFS turns it back East between hours 12 and 18. Really don't see that verifying, but we'll see.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1656 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:19 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro is well west of the 12Z GFS/GEFS mean, but is actually a bit east of the 0Z Euro track.

The trend gif I did makes it look slightly NW of 0z. Don't know how to post it here though.

Edit: Nvm, it was comparing to yesterday's 12z.
Last edited by Vdogg on Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1657 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:20 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro is well west of the 12Z GFS/GEFS mean, but is actually a bit east of the 0Z Euro track.


How are you comparing it to 0z? Does another source have something other than 24 points?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1658 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:21 pm

seahawkjd wrote:
LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro is well west of the 12Z GFS/GEFS mean, but is actually a bit east of the 0Z Euro track.


How are you comparing it to 0z? Does another source have something other than 24 points?

No, see above. It was comparing to 12z.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1659 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:24 pm

Vdogg wrote:
seahawkjd wrote:
LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro is well west of the 12Z GFS/GEFS mean, but is actually a bit east of the 0Z Euro track.


How are you comparing it to 0z? Does another source have something other than 24 points?

No, see above. It was comparing to 12z.


He said 12z GFS but then said 0z Euro comparison so I was wondering if there was 12 hour fixes somewhere.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1660 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:24 pm

Hurricane force winds seem to just barely touch OBX. They might put a Hurricane watch for NC coast, and Tropical Storm watch for the Tidewater area later today or tomorrow.
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