ATL: MARIA - Models

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Vdogg
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1661 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:27 pm

seahawkjd wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
seahawkjd wrote:
How are you comparing it to 0z? Does another source have something other than 24 points?

No, see above. It was comparing to 12z.


He said 12z GFS but then said 0z Euro comparison so I was wondering if there was 12 hour fixes somewhere.

He was saying 12z Euro is east of 0z Euro, which it may be I haven't looked. He was also saying 12z Euro is west of 12z GFS, which it most definitely is. 12z Euro is also Northwest of yesterday's 12z Euro.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1662 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:30 pm

Vdogg wrote:
seahawkjd wrote:
Vdogg wrote:No, see above. It was comparing to 12z.


He said 12z GFS but then said 0z Euro comparison so I was wondering if there was 12 hour fixes somewhere.

He was saying 12z Euro is east of 0z Euro, which it may be I haven't looked. He was also saying 12z Euro is west of 12z GFS, which it most definitely is. 12z Euro is also Northwest of yesterday's 12z Euro.


But how can you tell when its 24 hour fixes 12 hours apart? 0z is showing 0z for each day sand 12z is showing 12z for each day so there is a lot of time in between for movement that isn't shown.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1663 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:38 pm

seahawkjd wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
seahawkjd wrote:
He said 12z GFS but then said 0z Euro comparison so I was wondering if there was 12 hour fixes somewhere.

He was saying 12z Euro is east of 0z Euro, which it may be I haven't looked. He was also saying 12z Euro is west of 12z GFS, which it most definitely is. 12z Euro is also Northwest of yesterday's 12z Euro.


But how can you tell when its 24 hour fixes 12 hours apart? 0z is showing 0z for each day sand 12z is showing 12z for each day so there is a lot of time in between for movement that isn't shown.


Sorry about the confusion. I have another source (pay), which provides 6 hour intervals.
Also, I need to clarify my comparisons of the 12Z Euro to the 0Z Euro. I was looking at hour 96, which is ENE of hour 108 of the 0Z Euro. But on second look, I see that up to about or just before hour 72, it is slightly closer to shore on the 12Z Euro vs the 0Z Euro
at its closest. Afterward, she clearly turns more abruptly OTS, possibly due to a closer and stronger Lee?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1664 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:41 pm

LarryWx wrote:
seahawkjd wrote:
Vdogg wrote:He was saying 12z Euro is east of 0z Euro, which it may be I haven't looked. He was also saying 12z Euro is west of 12z GFS, which it most definitely is. 12z Euro is also Northwest of yesterday's 12z Euro.


But how can you tell when its 24 hour fixes 12 hours apart? 0z is showing 0z for each day sand 12z is showing 12z for each day so there is a lot of time in between for movement that isn't shown.


Sorry about the confusion. I have another source (pay), which provides 6 hour intervals.
Also, I need to clarify my comparisons of the 12Z Euro to the 0Z Euro. I was looking at hour 96, which is ENE of hour 108 of the 0Z Euro. But on second look, I see that up to about or just before hour 72, it is slightly closer to shore on the 12Z Euro vs the 0Z Euro
at its closest. Afterward, she clearly turns more abruptly OTS, possibly due to a closer and stronger Lee?


Thank you, I understand now. Is your source Weatherbell?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1665 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:42 pm

^YW. No.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1666 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:42 pm

Is the next model out the GFS in a couple of hours?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1667 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:16 pm

Free source for the Euro plots: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/737-w-373-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170928-1800z.html

Animated gif for wind gusts durng the closest approach.

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1668 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:44 pm

significant east shift for the GFS. No direct impacts aside from high waves and a passing shower. It is also much weaker
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1669 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:50 pm

tolakram wrote:Free source for the Euro plots: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/737-w-373-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170928-1800z.html

Animated gif for wind gusts durng the closest approach.

Image

Seems like euro is calling for tropical storm force winds in Virginia Beach as well, yet we are not under the same watch as NC. Wonder why that is.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1670 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:51 pm

Alyono wrote:significant east shift for the GFS. No direct impacts aside from high waves and a passing shower. It is also much weaker


Correct. Here it is.

Image


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1671 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:52 pm

I'll buy the weaker storm, but that east shift seems a tad drastic.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1672 Postby MrJames » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:03 pm

Is it being drawn east by Lee?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1673 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:23 pm

MrJames wrote:Is it being drawn east by Lee?


I also have noticed that H Lee has been getting further and further west on each run for the same timeframe, which leads me to think that perhaps he is at least indirectly drawing her further away from NC at her closest approach. Opinions? So, might Lee save NC from a direct hit or at least a very close miss from Maria after Jose already very likely saved the SE US from a massive hit from Maria?
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Re: ATL: - Models

#1674 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:30 pm

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/wea ... Name=MARIA
UKMET ramps up MARIA into a major again and with a nice ots forecast.
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Re: ATL: - Models

#1675 Postby Vdogg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:35 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=15L&stormName=MARIA
UKMET ramps up MARIA into a major again and with a nice ots forecast.

I'd be surprised to see this become a major again. Even with the low pressure it currently has, it's been struggling in the wind department.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1676 Postby Michele B » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:36 pm

Looks to create a "water event" more than a wind event for NC.

That seems to be the SOP for most of this year's storms, the islands notwithstanding. There's flooding everywhere any of this year's storms has "touched."
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1677 Postby capepoint » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:56 pm

Vdogg wrote:
tolakram wrote:Free source for the Euro plots: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/737-w-373-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170928-1800z.html

Animated gif for wind gusts
Seems like euro is calling for tropical storm force winds in Virginia Beach as well, yet we are not under the same watch as NC. Wonder why that is.



Timing probably. Unless they go with a more easterly solution I would not be suprised to see them extend watches up a little further north tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1678 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:01 pm

MrJames wrote:Is it being drawn east by Lee?
LarryWx wrote:I also have noticed that H Lee has been getting further and further west on each run for the same timeframe, which leads me to think that perhaps he is at least indirectly drawing her further away from NC at her closest approach. Opinions? So, might Lee save NC from a direct hit or at least a very close miss from Maria after Jose already very likely saved the SE US from a massive hit from Maria?

The counterclockwise circulation around Lee would have a more north/northeast to south/southwest flow rather than a south/southwest to north/northeast flow.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1679 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:06 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:
MrJames wrote:Is it being drawn east by Lee?
LarryWx wrote:I also have noticed that H Lee has been getting further and further west on each run for the same timeframe, which leads me to think that perhaps he is at least indirectly drawing her further away from NC at her closest approach. Opinions? So, might Lee save NC from a direct hit or at least a very close miss from Maria after Jose already very likely saved the SE US from a massive hit from Maria?

The counterclockwise circulation around Lee would have a more north/northeast to south/southwest flow rather than a south/southwest to north/northeast flow.


Thanks for your reply. I understand that but could Lee being closer be leading to the ridge between him and Maria weakening more quickly?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1680 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:25 pm

IMHO, I'm a little skeptical that Lee is playing any sort of significant role in Maria's track/intensity due to the small size of the storm and the far distance away from Maria.
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