ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical Low - Discussion

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ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical Low - Discussion

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:30 am

Eastern of two newly declared invests.

97L INVEST 170914 1200 9.5N 20.5W ATL 20 1012
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:57 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: NATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:54 am

Another tropical wave, located between the west coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is
possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become less
favorable. The system is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:59 pm

2 PM TWO:

Another tropical wave, located between the west coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of shower and
thunderstorm activity. This system has become much better organized
since yesterday and could become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days before upper-level winds become less conducive
for development. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the far eastern tropical
Atlantic for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#4 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:05 pm

Good looking wave

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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#5 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:08 pm

Looks really impressive on visible right now. Might well make a quick depression or storm.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#6 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:37 pm

Interesting how the latest EC keeps this on a west course to the Lesser Antilles though shows no major strengthening thankfully. The GFS deepens and intensifies with a recurve in Central Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#7 Postby stormzilla » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:40 pm


wow :double: looks like another long range tracker.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#8 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:41 pm

The GFS seems to always go for the recurve initially like it did with Irma. Thats a bias that has been there for some time now
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:35 pm

8 PM TWO:


Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 300 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands have
continued to become better organized this afternoon. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Friday. This
system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#10 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:42 pm

Two 80%+ waves on the five-day. Yikes, it's definitely September. Looks like we may have three active storms again briefly, except Jose will be be in Lee and Maria's company instead of Irma and Katia. Hopefully the new neighbors will be friendlier than the old ones.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#11 Postby smithtim » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:59 pm

80/90% and already almost looks like a cane of satellite... enough already can't I just enjoy surfing the swell from Jose then let him go OTS and have a weekend not tracking another one. Got a felling that's not gonna happen and this new one will be named by weekend!
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Re: NATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#12 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:10 pm

Looking at microwave, I'm not 100% convinced that the southerlies on the east side of the circulation is completely closed off as it extends east on the monsoon trough, but it's close. Do that, and it's classified.

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:16 pm

Only good thing about this pair is that they are close enough together to both exit via the same trough weakness.

96L will likely track a little further south due to 97L which is concerning.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#14 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:22 pm

Will be upgraded at 11 PM.

Code: Select all

AL, 14, 2017091500, , BEST, 0, 105N, 247W, 30, 1010, TD
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Re: NATL: Tropical Depression 14L - Discussion

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:40 pm

Hard to argue against.

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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#16 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:53 pm

EC and GFS indicate dissipation in 5-6 days, on a track to pass well east of the Caribbean (WNW). I have it near 18N/47W and dissipating at day 6. Doesn't appear to be a Caribbean threat. I plotted the EC MSLP down to 1/2 millibar and it doesn't show a single closed isobar beyond 6 days. At least, I hope it dissipates. Cancelling my first day off in 2 weeks for tomorrow...
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#17 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:53 pm

That's a TC every time unless you have recon to show otherwise.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#18 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:54 pm

RL3AO wrote:That's a TC every time unless you have recon to show otherwise.


I agree - 35-40 kts now. ASCAT just missed it last hour, so the NHC isn't in a rush to call it "Lee".
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#19 Postby bqknight » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:That's a TC every time unless you have recon to show otherwise.


I agree - 35-40 kts now. ASCAT just missed it last hour, so the NHC isn't in a rush to call it "Lee".


SFWMD Spaghetti Models Page changed to "Storm 14". I think they'll start advisories at 11.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Discussion

#20 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:16 pm

bqknight wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:That's a TC every time unless you have recon to show otherwise.


I agree - 35-40 kts now. ASCAT just missed it last hour, so the NHC isn't in a rush to call it "Lee".


SFWMD Spaghetti Models Page changed to "Storm 14". I think they'll start advisories at 11.

They will.
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