000
WTNT44 KNHC 261438
TCDAT4
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017
Lee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with a
well-defined eye on visible satellite images. Satellite intensity
estimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed of
at least 90 kt. Further strengthening is possible for the next day
or so while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relatively
light shear. Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger,
and the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricane
within the next 24 hours or so. The official forecast is raised
from the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance.
Weakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and water
temperatures decrease. The small tropical cyclone should weaken
fairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a large
extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
Lee continues moving westward at 9 kt. The hurricane should
gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on
Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic.
Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it
enters the faster mid-latitude flow. There are some speed
differences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-track
spread. The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in the
direction of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 29.9N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 30.0N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 30.6N 56.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 33.3N 56.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 46.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
WTNT44 KNHC 261438
TCDAT4
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017
Lee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with a
well-defined eye on visible satellite images. Satellite intensity
estimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed of
at least 90 kt. Further strengthening is possible for the next day
or so while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relatively
light shear. Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger,
and the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricane
within the next 24 hours or so. The official forecast is raised
from the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance.
Weakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and water
temperatures decrease. The small tropical cyclone should weaken
fairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a large
extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
Lee continues moving westward at 9 kt. The hurricane should
gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on
Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic.
Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it
enters the faster mid-latitude flow. There are some speed
differences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-track
spread. The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in the
direction of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 29.9N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 30.0N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 30.6N 56.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 33.3N 56.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 46.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
Unlikely they'll upgrade post-analysis though--I've never seen a category upgrade (even 5kt) without actual recon/surface obs, and it's all down from here as Maria's shear appears to have arrived with the western outflow starting to flatten out.
