ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical Low - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

...LEE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 50.1W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1370 MI...2210 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 50.1 West. Lee is currently
drifting southward, and a slow southeastward motion is expected to
begin later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 36 to 48 hours and Lee could be near major hurricane
strength on Monday.

Lee is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

[supercane4867]

2017 is the year of RIs. Even if you thought it was dead and gone, it still comes back alive and RIs.

[euro6208]

Pretty incredible it's size.

[WeatherGuesser]

Even if you thought it was dead and gone, it still comes back alive and RIs.

' Look Master, it's alive, it's ALIVE!!! '

[xtyphooncyclonex]

After being underestimated and ignored, Lee wrote a song. It's called "Look What You Made Me Do."

[Kazmit]

Wide view size comparison with Maria.

[wxman57]

After being underestimated and ignored, Lee wrote a song. It's called "Look What You Made Me Do."

https://i.imgur.com/kmGsov4.gif

It's still underestimated - 75 kts??? No way this is weaker than Maria.

[euro6208]

Cat 4 maybe...Cat 5? maybe ...

[galaxy401]

Lee is a very tiny hurricane, much different compared to Maria. It's actually kind of funny looking at this storm.

[CrazyC83]

The cloud tops aren't very cold, but even then that could be because of satellite sampling issues. I'd probably go with about 90-95 kt personally.

[Ptarmigan]

Looking at Lee, I think it could be a Category 3 hurricane. Quite small hurricane. Hurricane force winds is 23 miles in diameter. That is a small hurricane.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1448.shtml

Code: Select all

000
WTNT24 KNHC 241448
TCMAT4

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  49.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  49.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  50.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.1N  49.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.7N  48.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N  49.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.1N  50.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 30.7N  51.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.2N  52.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N  50.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N  49.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[NotSparta]

Is it me, or is Lee wobbling?

[Hammy]

Any valid reason why this isn't classified at least a Cat 2?

[CyclonicFury]

Any valid reason why this isn't classified at least a Cat 2?

Probably because the cloud tops aren't that cold, although they have cooled a little in the past few frames.

[Kazmit]

Visually looks like a major, IMO. Or at least stronger than Maria.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

A compairson with Maria:

[WeatherGuesser]

They always wobble or twist or go where people don't tell them to. Hardly noteworthy.

[EquusStorm]

Easily approaching major status at least earlier... and a hurricane that likely could have gone completely undetected before the satellite era.

[1900hurricane]

A DT of 4.5 (77 kt) can currently be given to Lee due to an eye embedded in a medium grey CDO (eye number 4.5). No eye adjustment is given for an off-white eye surrounded by either medium or light grey. However, it should be noted that minuscule Lee is being viewed at fairly large angles by geostationary imagery. The VZA for GOES-13 is currently about 45º, and it increases to over 50º for GOES-16. This matters with a small eye on a minuscule system. Despite the angle, GOES-16 is occasionally registering an eye temp >9ºC, which is in the warm medium grey color shade on BD imagery. Polar orbiting passes have also occasionally seen a warm medium grey eye. Accounting for a warm medium grey eye, the eye adjustment could potentially increase to +0.5 if surrounded by an unbroken ring of light grey, meaning Lee has been toeing the line between 4.5 and 5.0 (verbatim 90 kt intensity estimate) for many hours now. NHC is at 80 kt right now, on the high side of 4.5, but I think 85 kt is justifiable, which is more on the low side of 5.0. This actually is in pretty good agreement with recent microwave intensity estimates such as SSMIS and AMSU.

[WeatherGuesser]

It thinks it can, it thinks it can, it thinks it can .....