ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical Low - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#181 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:25 am

Unfortunately, with out recon, the NHC must have some kind of satellite analysis for the basis to support an intensity. Even if they know the actual intensity maybe higher than dovrak number indicates, rules won't allow them to go with a higher intensity without a supporting source. Right now all satellite estimates are near 80kt.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#182 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:46 pm

A Pac-Man game with Maria and Lee. :D

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#183 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:56 pm

Vince_and_Grace_fan wrote:A Pac-Man game with Maria and Lee. :D

Image


The really hilarious thing is someone at the Weather Museum in Houston put on one of the computers a mod of Pac Man where you're a hurricane and the ghosts are dry air and wind shear.

For some reason though the face they put on the hurricane has two eyes. I don't understand why people always have to do this. Just put a pupil in the eye you've already got, wannabe hurricane personifiers.

(For those jealous that Houston has a weather museum, it's nothing much. It's basically somebody's house where there is a group of people that do weather forecasts for oil rigs.)
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#184 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:03 pm

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
Vince_and_Grace_fan wrote:A Pac-Man game with Maria and Lee. :D

Image


The really hilarious thing is someone at the Weather Museum in Houston put on one of the computers a mod of Pac Man where you're a hurricane and the ghosts are dry air and wind shear.

For some reason though the face they put on the hurricane has two eyes. I don't understand why people always have to do this. Just put a pupil in the eye you've already got, wannabe hurricane personifiers.

(For those jealous that Houston has a weather museum, it's nothing much. It's basically somebody's house where there is a group of people that do weather forecasts for oil rigs.)


Interesting gif.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#185 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:25 pm

It must have just missed the light grey embedded shade by the narrowest of margins.

TXNT28 KNES 260008
TCSNTL

A. 14L (LEE)

B. 25/2345Z

C. 30.3N

D. 51.0W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON OW EYE EMBEDDED BY MG AND SURROUNDED BY
LG. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ


Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#186 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:37 pm

1900hurricane wrote:It must have just missed the light grey embedded shade by the narrowest of margins.

TXNT28 KNES 260008
TCSNTL

A. 14L (LEE)

B. 25/2345Z

C. 30.3N

D. 51.0W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON OW EYE EMBEDDED BY MG AND SURROUNDED BY
LG. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ


Image


I'd at least bring it back up to 80 kt on that, although a case could be made for 85 kt.

One other thing - I think the pressure estimates have been too low. 980 mb in that environment would likely be 90-95 kt as it is sitting between strong ridges and very small.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#187 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:11 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:It must have just missed the light grey embedded shade by the narrowest of margins.

TXNT28 KNES 260008
TCSNTL

A. 14L (LEE)

B. 25/2345Z

C. 30.3N

D. 51.0W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON OW EYE EMBEDDED BY MG AND SURROUNDED BY
LG. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ


[image removed]


I'd at least bring it back up to 80 kt on that, although a case could be made for 85 kt.

One other thing - I think the pressure estimates have been too low. 980 mb in that environment would likely be 90-95 kt as it is sitting between strong ridges and very small.

Looks like NHC is back up to 80 kt for 00Z. Pressure is actually pretty much a verbatim rip from KZC, with NHC and me varying by one millibar.

AL, 14, 2017092600, , BEST, 0, 304N, 510W, 80, 979, HU, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1018, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
AL, 14, 2017092600, , BEST, 0, 304N, 510W, 80, 979, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1018, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
AL, 14, 2017092600, , BEST, 0, 304N, 510W, 80, 979, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 10, 10, 10, 1018, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,


Image

It is worth noting that KZC does have a check on one of the storm size parameters, the S parameter, to where it isn't supposed to drop below a certain value. Per the KZC paper, that value is 0.4. My KZC python program has that check coded in, but I also have a spreadsheet set up to compute KZC that does not. Without that check in place, pressure outputs 5 mb higher.

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#188 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:55 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 961.9mb/ 92.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +7.8C Cloud Region Temp : -54.2C

Scene Type : EYE

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#189 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:07 pm

WMG eye now.

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#190 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:15 pm

1900hurricane wrote:WMG eye now.

Image



About 95knts. Would you agree?
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#191 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:21 pm

I'm guessing 95kt for next advisory and major by 11AM EDT.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 958.1mb/ 97.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +10.0C Cloud Region Temp : -55.6C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#192 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:35 am

AL, 14, 2017092606, , BEST, 0, 301N, 520W, 85, 977, HU, 64, NEQ

Cat 2.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#193 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:11 am

Image
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#194 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:20 am

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#195 Postby FireRat » Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:32 am

:uarrow: Lee looks like a Major on that satellite image, wow! Even Lee is pushing major status after having nearly vanished last week, truly goes to show what kind of incredible season 2017 is turning out to be! My guess is that Lee is now a Cat 3 based on his appearance.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#196 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:58 am

Major at 5pm?

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#197 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:34 am

I know this topic gets brought up just about every time a hurricane develops a well-defined eye, but is there an argument for saying Lee is going annular? The general lack of feeder bands, with a stable circular core surrounding a medium to large eye (relatively speaking of course) and it's location make me wonder...
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#198 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:09 am

Been a major for a bit already imo, but if they're waiting for ADT to come up before officially saying so, they can make a case for that now as it's still reading ~5.3/~97kts. I suspect they'll still go low on it. I don't know why they held back so much on the last advisory, but maybe on the 5pm it'll at least be at 95kt. At least they finally said that a major is possible on the last discussion.

Its forecast peak of 95kts will only happen if they choose to actually increase winds on the advisories. :p
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#199 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:42 am

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M a r k
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#200 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:49 am

Image
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