ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical Low - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#201 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:50 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 261438
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

Lee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with a
well-defined eye on visible satellite images. Satellite intensity
estimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed of
at least 90 kt. Further strengthening is possible for the next day
or so while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relatively
light shear. Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger,
and the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricane
within the next 24 hours or so. The official forecast is raised
from the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance.
Weakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and water
temperatures decrease. The small tropical cyclone should weaken
fairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a large
extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

Lee continues moving westward at 9 kt. The hurricane should
gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on
Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic.
Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it
enters the faster mid-latitude flow. There are some speed
differences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-track
spread. The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in the
direction of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 29.9N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 30.0N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 30.6N 56.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 33.3N 56.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 46.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#202 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:07 pm

Image
impressive stadium effect - big doubt that Lee is just a cat 2, looks major to me
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#203 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:10 pm

NHC have been behind the curve from the get go with this one, IMO the first peak was probably around 90-100kts, and its current presentation reminds me of a major, maybe even 110-115kts type system.

I think there may well be some upward adjustments come post season, especially with the first peak where I think the system was too small for dvorak estimates to truly capture the system.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#204 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:37 pm

Lee from earlier today.

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#205 Postby aperson » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:39 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Lee from earlier today.


Are there any hurricanes with that sort of stadium effect that weren't majors? Everything seems to point to Lee being at least a low to middle cat 3
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#206 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:56 pm

It's now up to 95 kt, although I agree that is probably conservative.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#207 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:56 pm

Still not a major as of the 5pm advisory.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#208 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:37 pm

At least they explicitly forecast it to become a major in 12 hours now, though. If they actually do classify it where it should have been a while ago, it'll be easy for them to possibly extend that 100kt point back a few advisories in post-analysis.

Is it just me or does the overall extent seem to be expanding a little the last several hours? Gorgeous storm.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#209 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:39 pm

EquusStorm wrote:At least they explicitly forecast it to become a major in 12 hours now, though. If they actually do classify it where it should have been a while ago, it'll be easy for them to possibly extend that 100kt point back a few advisories in post-analysis.

Is it just me or does the overall extent seem to be expanding a little the last several hours? Gorgeous storm.



Been growing larger slowly for the past 48 hours...Now probably 2.5 times as big.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#210 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 26, 2017 6:41 pm

Given the satellite appearance with some dry air around the eye, it's all but assured we won't be seeing an official Cat 3 out of Lee barring a post-season upgrade.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#211 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Sep 26, 2017 6:52 pm

Hammy wrote:Given the satellite appearance with some dry air around the eye, it's all but assured we won't be seeing an official Cat 3 out of Lee barring a post-season upgrade.

It still has time to intensify a little if it can mix out the dry air a bit - in fact, the last frame shows new convection bursting in the southeast quadrant.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#212 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:21 pm

EquusStorm wrote:[img]https://i.imgur.com/pnLdJlU.jpg[img]

Cool angle on that visual! :P
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#213 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:48 pm

Some of the convective irregularities might actually be a result of eyewall replacement, although it is a little difficult to tell.

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#214 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:18 pm

Hammy wrote:Given the satellite appearance with some dry air around the eye, it's all but assured we won't be seeing an official Cat 3 out of Lee barring a post-season upgrade.

All but assured? It has another 24 hours to intensify.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#215 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:34 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Some of the convective irregularities might actually be a result of eyewall replacement, although it is a little difficult to tell.

Image


Pretty sure it is. Latest IR shows shows concentric eyewalls. In fact it looks like it's almost done.

Edit: eyewalls, not eyeballs lol
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#216 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:39 pm

Regardless of the outcome of the current turn of events, I think a 100 kt intensity estimate for earlier is reasonable based on SATCON estimates.

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#217 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:15 pm

:uarrow: Unlikely they'll upgrade post-analysis though--I've never seen a category upgrade (even 5kt) without actual recon/surface obs, and it's all down from here as Maria's shear appears to have arrived with the western outflow starting to flatten out.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#218 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:09 pm

Hammy wrote::uarrow: Unlikely they'll upgrade post-analysis though--I've never seen a category upgrade (even 5kt) without actual recon/surface obs, and it's all down from here as Maria's shear appears to have arrived with the western outflow starting to flatten out.

It's rare, but it does happen occasionally. They upgraded an EPac hurricane to category 5 in 2002 (Elida) and almost did the same with Igor '10. I'm not the NHC, so I can't say it's going to definitely happen here, but it might actually be one of those rare cases where it is considered. SATCON estimates will at times lag real by a few hours since it relies heavily on sometimes inconsistently timed microwave data, so it's possible NHC will review it further after the fact and make adjustments.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#219 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:25 pm

The EWRC happened this evening seems to be done. Eye diameter has clearly increased in recent frame while CDO is back to symmetrical.

I believe Lee should become a major after all.

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#220 Postby OntarioEggplant » Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:43 pm

I have no idea how Lee could not be cat 3 or 4 worn that stadium effect and concentric eyewalls. Kind of getting tired of the unnecessarily conservative estimates by the NHC as of late.
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