ATL: MARIA - Recon Discussion Thread

[cycloneye]

This thread will be used to have discussions about the data that the different missions will have for Maria. It all begins with the first mission for Sunday afternoon.

Go to the main Maria Recon Thread (Data Only) to see all the data.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119222&p=2642891#p2642891

[cycloneye]

Who wants to post the observations of the first mission that is underway?

[Gustywind]

URNT15 KNHC 171756
AF303 0115A MARIA HDOB 20 20170917
174730 1353N 05706W 6970 03096 9977 +103 +102 072053 054 053 008 00
174800 1352N 05705W 6970 03089 9986 +105 +105 074055 055 054 012 00
174830 1351N 05704W 6971 03084 9981 +105 +105 072053 056 063 015 03
174900 1350N 05703W 6967 03083 9978 +106 +106 075046 048 062 018 03
174930 1349N 05701W 6973 03071 9968 +114 +114 080055 059 060 023 00
175000 1348N 05700W 6964 03075 9955 +115 +115 080049 057 062 021 03
175030 1347N 05659W 6964 03061 9940 +121 +121 084046 051 062 022 03
175100 1345N 05659W 6970 03046 9903 +123 +123 073041 043 064 013 00
175130 1343N 05658W 6969 03041 9874 +132 +118 071037 039 059 006 03
175200 1342N 05658W 6967 03036 9866 +133 +116 071028 037 049 003 00
175230 1340N 05657W 6974 03023 9861 +135 +112 078013 021 027 000 00
175300 1338N 05657W 6970 03027 9853 +140 +105 145003 009 018 001 03
175330 1336N 05657W 6968 03034 9858 +138 +109 265013 016 020 000 00
175400 1335N 05657W 6968 03034 9859 +140 +099 268020 023 019 000 03
175430 1333N 05656W 6967 03045 9861 +149 +095 250037 043 024 002 00
175500 1332N 05654W 6967 03057 9874 +148 +081 244041 043 030 003 00
175530 1331N 05653W 6971 03060 9904 +132 +085 235041 042 041 003 00
175600 1329N 05651W 6963 03078 9924 +124 +079 233043 043 044 001 00
175630 1328N 05650W 6974 03075 9940 +120 +067 227044 045 045 001 00
175700 1327N 05649W 6962 03097 9943 +125 +068 230044 045 042 002 00
$$
;

59 kt FL, 64 kt SFMR. Pressure 985mb.

Cat 1 hurricane already?

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83 you dont see an upgrade to hurricane yet right?

[Gustywind]

CrazyC83 you dont see an upgrade to hurricane yet right?

Luis, Cat 1 hurricane already?

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83 you dont see an upgrade to hurricane yet right?

Luis, Cat 1 hurricane already?

I think not yet as plane will make 2 or 3 more passes.

[Gustywind]

CrazyC83 you dont see an upgrade to hurricane yet right?

Luis, Cat 1 hurricane already?

I think not yet as plane will make 2 or 3 more passes.

Ok thanks Luis

[SouthDadeFish]

Extrapolated pressure down at least 2-3 mb from last pass. Looks like Maria is intensifying quickly. Peak FL winds in NE quadrant were 63 kt. I don't think the winds have caught up yet.

[cycloneye]

Extrapolated pressure down at least 2-3 mb from last pass. Looks like Maria is intensifying quickly. Peak FL winds in NE quadrant were 63 kt. I don't think the winds have caught up yet.

Sufficient data for an upgrade or more is needed?

[SouthDadeFish]

Extrapolated pressure down at least 2-3 mb from last pass. Looks like Maria is intensifying quickly. Peak FL winds in NE quadrant were 63 kt. I don't think the winds have caught up yet.

Sufficient data for an upgrade or more is needed?

Wind wise, I would put it at 60 kt. But considering the pressure falls and satellite trends I think it's only a matter of another hour or two before hurricane intensity is reached. Looks like recon is going in for another fix, so we'll see.

[HenkL]

Have to go, someone else can take over posting observations.

[1900hurricane]

Whew, 142 kt instantaneous winds 10 mb off the surface in the recent SE eyewall drop.

[Nimbus]

Whew, 142 kt instantaneous winds 10 mb off the surface in the recent SE eyewall drop.

Two riders were approaching and the winds began to howl..

[Sciencerocks]

My recon guess is 924mb and 159 knt flight level and 145knt smrf.

[1900hurricane]

I'll go 144 kt SFMR, 152 kt flight level, and 930 mb.

[FLpanhandle91]

I'm going 150kt SFMR 920mb.

[FLpanhandle91]

Is recon setting up for NW to SE first? Or punching through SW to NE?

[1900hurricane]

Is recon setting up for NW to SE first? Or punching through SW to NE?

Looks like NW to SE. They're already slightly north of the eye.

[1900hurricane]

Plane is descending now.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like they'll be shooting the gab between Guadalupe and Dominica and come in from the north.