WPAC: TD 22W

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WPAC: TD 22W

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:25 pm

Near Palau
Image

Floater
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:37 pm

90W INVEST 170921 0000 7.5N 133.0E WPAC 15 1011
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:14 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 135.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 133E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST OF PALAU.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT CONVECTION
OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 210101Z METOP-A
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE SAME, WITH 10-15KT WINDS TURNING INTO AN LLC IN
THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KNOTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
CURRENTLY GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ARE CURRENTLY NOT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF FORMATIVE BANDING
AND THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:16 pm

Image

90W INVEST 170922 0000 13.1N 128.3E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:11 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 133E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 430
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 220134Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE LLC HAS A
BROAD, ELONGATED STRUCTURE WITH 15KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ARC.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). CURRENTLY GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INVEST 90W TRACKING NORTHWEST, BUT SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:55 am

Very heavy rains associated with this disturbance.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:51 pm

Crossed Luzon this Saturday morning(PhT)... Now that the system has emerged into the South China Sea, slight organization/strengthening is possible before it reaches Hainan-western Guangdong area in Southern China within the next 48hrs...

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:48 am

Up to MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 128.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 118.5E, APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 230157Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND WEAK, SHALLOW
BANDING ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
WITH BROAD EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD HAINAN
ISLAND WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:20 am

TXPQ26 KNES 230906
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 23/0830Z

C. 16.4N

D. 116.8E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING FOR A DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON MET SINCE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#10 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:00 am

I should say this earlier but this is now a JMA TD. And it's named Nando by PAGASA...
And this is possible that this is might end up as second Guchol in where JTWC got it as TD while JMA got it as TS. It's currently moving rapidly to west (it's not moving NW) right now, so it might cannot take many time to develop right now...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 4:11 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION STILL STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE
AS EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DISPLACES THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
231402Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A BROAD REGION OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND A FEW 30 KNOT BARBS ON THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. MORE RECENT SHIP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM HONG KONG INDICATE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS,
AND THESE DATA ARE THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL 30 KNOT INTENSITY.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW FROM A
WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHERN RIDGE, YET ONLY MODERATE TO LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SWIFTLY IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
CURRENTLY TD 20W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
TAIWAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM AND ESTABLISHES THE
FORECAST REASONING.
B. TD 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EXTENDING WESTWARD
OVER CHINA. THE RAPID SPEED OF ADVANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE
SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES, HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
INSUFFICIENT TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRAVERSES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TD 20W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS UNDER THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER HAINAN, AND
REEMERGING OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN BY TAU 24. LAND INTERACTION WITH
HAINAN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN
OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND
DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 4:12 pm

92W INVEST 170923 1800 6.1N 135.0E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: TD 22W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:53 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 232311Z 91GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T1.5 TO T2.0
(25 TO 30 KNOTS) AND LOCAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS, WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL 30 KNOT
INTENSITY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW FROM A WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHERN RIDGE. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
TRAVELING IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS, TD 22W HAS SLOWED
DOWN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS RESULTING IN A NOTABLE INCREASE IN WIND
SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
CURRENTLY TD 20W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
TAIWAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. TD 22W HAS SLOWED DOWN TO CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST SIX HOURS
RESULTING IN A DETERIORATING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AS A RESULT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY.
B. TD 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EXTENDING WESTWARD
OVER CHINA. MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS HINDERING FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM TO
CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRAVERSES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. TD 20W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 30 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER HAINAN, AND REEMERGING
OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN BY TAU 24. LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN OVER
NORTHERN VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND
DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TD 22W

#14 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:10 am

22W experiencing moderate-strong northeasterly shear...

Image


Radar imagery shows moderate-heavy rainfall(35-50 dBZ) now affecting parts of Hainan island...

Image
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Re: WPAC: TD 22W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:15 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A
240230Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT. A
240231Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS, PRIMARILY OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. IN ADDITION TO THE ASCAT DATA, DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW SUPPORT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. TD 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER HAINAN ISLAND NEAR TAU 6 THEN
RE-EMERGING OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN AFTER TAU 12. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE
TO STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VWS, THEREFORE, TD 22W IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WINDS THROUGH TAU
24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
VIETNAM AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TD 22W

#16 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:45 am

Now centered over Hainan island...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: TD 22W

#17 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:19 pm

Now located over the Gulf of Tonkin, approaching Northern Vietnam...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: TD 22W

#18 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:23 pm

Image

Looks like a tropical storm
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Re: WPAC: TD 22W

#19 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:00 am

HURAKAN wrote:[img]ASCAT[/img]
Looks like a tropical storm

Indeed! The satellite presentation somewhat improved over the Gulf of Tonkin, plus observations from 'BACH LONG VI' island in the gulf @ 00Z today -- a wind speed of 43kph with gust of 61kph, and a SLP near 1000mb(still decreasing at that time), made me suspect it was already a Tropical Storm... 22W's center passed just to the north of the island according to JTWC's track data...
All we needed was an ASCAT pass to confirm...

Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: TD 22W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:22 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Looks like a tropical storm

Indeed! The satellite presentation



It's a TS no matter how it looks. it looks more organized than those Atlantic systems.. It's a beauty contest for dvorak. Recon might have found a TS.
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