EPAC: PILAR - Tropical Depression

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EPAC: PILAR - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:51 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982017 09/21/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 36 44 54 58 63 62 64 62 59
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 36 44 54 58 63 62 64 62 59
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 48 49
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 6 12 14 13 20 21 20 14 11 12 16 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 0 3 1 -2
SHEAR DIR 77 78 93 92 88 88 89 81 73 100 76 95 115
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 158 157 154 154 156 156 158 161 164 162
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.9 -51.9 -52.3 -51.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 8 7 8 7 9 7 11 7 9 5
700-500 MB RH 75 72 73 74 75 75 75 76 74 71 64 55 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 9 11 10 12 9 7
850 MB ENV VOR 49 34 34 34 28 54 45 40 56 91 101 96 77
200 MB DIV 51 36 47 67 58 64 86 80 55 99 56 -9 -24
700-850 TADV 1 0 2 -1 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 -2
LAND (KM) 59 94 160 221 280 339 352 282 190 107 108 126 230
LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.6 17.3 17.0 16.6 16.2 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.2
LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.0 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.4 105.9 105.0 104.2 104.2 104.9 106.0 107.5
STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 5 2 3 5 4 4 5 6 8
HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 25 28 27 27 25 23 23 24 25 21

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 416 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 23. 30. 35. 37. 39. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 9. 7. 9. 5. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 24. 34. 38. 43. 42. 44. 42. 39.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.5 103.0

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 09/21/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.24 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 48.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 40.8% 76.0% 54.9% 49.2% 41.3% 52.0% 42.8% 56.4%
Bayesian: 0.7% 24.5% 11.3% 4.1% 2.1% 2.0% 3.2% 2.1%
Consensus: 13.8% 33.5% 22.1% 17.8% 14.5% 18.0% 15.3% 19.5%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 09/21/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby rickybobby » Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:37 am

Is this the storm that is suppose to enter the gom and hit Florida?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:18 am

rickybobby wrote:Is this the storm that is suppose to enter the gom and hit Florida?


That's still like a week out.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#4 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:23 pm

Models not too bullish as they were in their previous runs.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:52 am

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system near the southwest coast of Mexico continues to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days as the system moves slowly
northwestward near the coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, heavy rains are expected over portions of southwestern
Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:45 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982017 09/22/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 43 45 44 43 41 38
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 43 45 44 43 41 38
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 31 31 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 17 21 20 15 16 11 12 14 15 13 18 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -5 -6 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 3 -4 -4 0
SHEAR DIR 81 83 92 98 103 97 82 88 100 104 140 168 189
SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 154 155 157 157 158 161 161 163 157 153
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.6 -51.7 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 7 10 8 11 7 9 6 6 4
700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 75 74 73 72 68 61 55 47 43 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 32 37 51 55 50 61 74 81 87 90 76 62 54
200 MB DIV 47 41 71 79 62 81 49 82 33 50 6 -10 -37
700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 -1 -2 0
LAND (KM) 261 280 290 285 270 211 176 137 133 167 215 299 317
LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.1
LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.4 105.1 105.1 105.6 106.4 107.4 108.5 109.4
STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 0 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 7 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 24 24 25 25 25 24 23 23 25 24 20 10 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 415 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 20. 19. 18. 16. 13.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.7 105.2

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 09/22/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.08 0.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.1
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 13.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% 1.7% 13.4%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3%
Consensus: 0.1% 5.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.5% 5.0% 4.6%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 09/22/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#7 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:07 am

In case of Max the HWRF was the only model which predicted hurricane strength. Now the HWRF is the strongest again and shows Pilar become a hurricane. It will be interesting to see that the modell will be good again or not.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#8 Postby zeehag » Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:54 pm

ok so i was wrong with last one, but htis one has a track thru my boat... we see, please chase it out more to ocean. thankyou. :cry:

what cheers me up a lot is the passage weather models showing it disappearing into the area of cabo corrientes in ocean without slamming anyone. that is a happy thing. as long a sit does not hit land it is a good and happy storm. funner to watch as well
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:38 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated low
pressure system near the southwest coast of Mexico continues to show
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next couple of days as the system moves slowly
northwestward near the coast. Interests in Colima and Jalisco
should monitor the progress of this system for any potential
watches or warnings issued this weekend. Regardless of development,
very heavy rains are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#10 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:51 am

Looks the chance for this to become Pilar is decreasing. I'm still hoping it will be.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#11 Postby NotSparta » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:14 am

SuperMarioBros99thx wrote:Looks the chance for this to become Pilar is decreasing. I'm still hoping it will be.


It's got 90/90 chances to develop still, I think it will
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#12 Postby zeehag » Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:02 pm

nhc made it td 18 e..... almost a pilar. i wish it would get moving.watching it sit still is nerve wracking.
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Re: EPAC: EIGTHEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:17 pm

So...has everyone forgotten about this system? It's a depression now.

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

ASCAT-A/-B scatterometer data from around 16-17Z indicated that the
low pressure system located just offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico that the NHC has been tracking the past several days has
become much better defined, and it also possessed surface winds of
30-33 kt. As a result, the system has been upgraded to a tropical
depression, the eighteenth of the eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The initial motion estimate is 335/04, based primarily on microwave
satellite fixes. The latest NHC model guidance is in fairly good
agreement on the cyclone moving slowly in a general
north-northwestward direction around the western periphery of a
deep-layer ridge for the next 5 days. Some of the models like the
GFS, Canadian, and HCCA take the system just inland near Cabo
Corrientes in about 24 hours, whereas the remainder of the guidance,
especially the UKMET and ECMWF, keep the cyclone just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. The forecast motion for the next
few days is expected to be 5 kt or less, an indication that steering
currents will be weak. Since there is no strong forcing that would
want to drive the depression inland over the mountainous terrain of
southwestern Mexico, the official forecast calls for the center of
the cyclone to remain just offshore of the coast throughout the
forecast period, similar to the ECMWF and UKMET solutions.

Given the well-defined circulation noted in the aforementioned
scatterometer data, along with vertical wind shear decreasing to
less than 10 kt by 24 hours, steady strengthening is forecast for
the next 24-36 hours. Afterwards, southeasterly to southerly shear
is expected to gradually increase to 25 kt by 72 hours and more
than 30 kt in the 96-120 hour period, which should induce steady to
possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is above most
of the guidance through 48 hours, and then is a little lower than
the guidance after that.

Due to the depression being forecast to become a tropical storm by
tonight, along with its proximity to the coast of Mexico, a tropical
storm warning has been issued from Manzanillo northward to El
Roblito, including the Islas Marias. Heavy rainfall causing flash
floods and mudslides will also be possible within the warning area
and extending well inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.4N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 19.4N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 20.2N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 21.2N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 22.7N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 24.0N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/1800Z 26.0N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#14 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:50 pm

Now Pilar.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#15 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:54 pm

Forecasted to remain so close to the coast that strengthening will probably be extremely limited.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#16 Postby zeehag » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:58 am

this uncertainty is a bear.
would love to know what is going to be sitting on top of me weatherwise, and this is amazingly uncertain.
i hope for mexico this pilar is as it is being predicted..gentle to mexico and mostly a lot of rain. mexico can handle rain. the blow dry is the hard part, and surge potential. this place is built on lagoons, swampland. this nation already has enough disasters in progress. best case scenario is this pilar goes back into land now, before strengthening any more. i personally am hoping this one is a dud.
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Re: EPAC: PILAR - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:40 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Recent microwave imagery from an AMSU overpass indicate that the
low-level structure of Pilar is rather messy. It is possible that
the low-level center may be reforming under the convection to the
west, but there have been no recent higher resolution microwave or
ASCAT overpasses to confirm this. Despite this, a blend of Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB now supports an initial intensity of 40
kt. Given a lack of any other data to go off of, that has been used
as the basis for the initial intensity.

The initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 335/4 kt, based in
part on extrapolation from the previous motion. There is still a
high spread among the models in the first 24 h of the forecast.
Several models, including the GFS, forecast that Pilar will move
quickly inland and dissipate. A few others, like the HWRF, keep the
center of Pilar just far enough offshore to maintain a coherent
vortex for about 72 hours. Finally, the ECMWF is an outlier in
showing Pilar reforming to the west and stalling off the west coast
of Jalisco for 24 h before moving inland and dissipating. In the
interest of continuity, the NHC forecast for this advisory does not
account for any reformation of the center, and shows Pilar moving
steadily northward to north-northwestward until dissipation, like
the HWRF. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus,
though in this case so many members quickly show dissipation, that
relatively few members are averaged together.

The intensity forecast is also complicated by land interaction. SSTs
near the southwest coast of Mexico are very warm, and the shear is
forecast to remain low for about 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast
only shows slight intensification since significant land interaction
is still expected. In the event that Pilar stays farther offshore,
it could become stronger than currently forecast. Regardless of how
much Pilar intensifies, a sharp increase in shear around 48 h should
quickly cause the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low and eventually
dissipate.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 19.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 19.5N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 20.2N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 21.0N 105.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 22.0N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 24.0N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: PILAR - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:41 pm

CZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Although Pilar continues to produce an area of deep convection,
surface observations and satellite data indicate that the
circulation of the storm is losing definition. In fact, recent
ASCAT data suggest that Pilar could already be an open trough.
However, we prefer to keep issuing advisories until more
confirmation on the structure of the system is available. The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Pilar is very near the west coast of Mexico and it is expected to
move along or just off the coast during the next day or two. The
interaction with land combined with a significant increase in
southwesterly shear should cause the cyclone to weaken to a
tropical depression later today, and dissipate within the next 24
to 36 hours.

Since Pilar lacks a clear center, the initial motion of 340/8 kt is
uncertain. A slower north-northwest motion in the low- to mid-level
flow is expected until the system dissipates. This track forecast
lies closest to the latest GFS model run.

The main hazard associated with Pilar is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, over the states of Nayarit, the southern portion of
Sinaloa, and the southwestern portion of Durango during the next day
or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 22.2N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 22.8N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 23.6N 107.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: PILAR - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:42 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Pilar Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Water vapor satellite imagery indicates that strong southwesterly
vertical wind shear, along with an abundance of dry mid-/upper-level
air, ahead of sharp shortwave trough moving across southern Baja
California is taking its toll on Pilar. Convection has weakened
considerably and has been displaced to the north and east of the
poorly defined low-level circulation center. A blend of Dvorak
satellite T-numbers and current intensity (CI) estimates from TAFB
and SAB is a consensus T2.0/30 kt, resulting in Pilar being
downgraded to a tropical depression. The shear is forecast to
increase to more than 30 kt by 12 h, so continued weakening and
degeneration into a remnant low is forecast today, followed by
dissipation on Tuesday...if not sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 335/06 kt. Pilar and its remnants are
expected to continue moving in this general direction, accompanied
by a slight decrease in forward speed, for the next day or so until
dissipation occurs. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the NOAA-HCCA
and TCVA consensus track models.

The main hazard associated with Pilar will continue to be heavy
rainfall, which could trigger life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, over the states of Nayarit, the southern portion of
Sinaloa, and the southwestern portion of Durango during the next
day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 22.8N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 23.4N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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