WPAC: INVEST 93W

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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WPAC: INVEST 93W

#1 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:11 pm

Disturbance near Yap and Palau...

93W INVEST 170927 0000 7.0N 138.5E WPAC 10 NA

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:27 pm

Easily the best looking invest for the past 2 weeks.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#3 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:34 pm

Models still don't develop it as it moves towards the Philippines, but it's looking quite good at the moment with indications of a cyclonic spin on satellite images/animations... Shear increases @ 135E westwards though, and looks like this will be similar to the recent disturbances that went poof while approaching the Philippines...

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:13 pm

:uarrow: yep, can easily see that shear near 130E on this Palau Vis loop, looks like a shock wave of shear.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:40 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0N
138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY MID-
LEVEL TURNING, AND CONVECTION LOCATED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. A 270036Z
AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A 270036Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD
AREA WITH PRIMARILY 15 KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (31-32 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THE DISTURBANCE EXCEPT FOR
NAVGEM, WHICH SHOWS A TRACK TO THE NORTH AND CONSOLIDATION IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#6 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:01 pm

93W now being reduced to nothing... :(

93W INVEST 170928 0000 7.6N 131.8E WPAC 15 1010

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#7 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:50 pm

93W, or its remnants, may reach Visayas and/or Southern Luzon on the next couple of days or so, but it will likely only be a rainmaker at most to these areas...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:08 am

93W INVEST 170928 0600 9.9N 135.0E WPAC 15 1010

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#9 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:19 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:93W, or its remnants, may reach Visayas and/or Southern Luzon on the next couple of days or so, but it will likely only be a rainmaker at most to these areas...

Yup, the Philippines is pretty lucky this year. No tropical cyclones of typhoon strength have made landfall until this date. However, being a mere "rainmaker" could be devastating for a country like us; take Tropical Depression Winnie that killed 1,593 for example.

My location, Cebu City, has had several days of >50mm rainfall throughout the past month. The Best Western Lex Cebu Station via Weather Underground recorded 468.8 mm of precipitation this month, 269% of the normal rainfall of 174 mm for September. Imagine how much more could we see given a La Niña is poised to take place within the next few months and more rain would be dumped over our metro area of 3 million. On a side note, it's beginning to flood again on our ground floor; another thunderstorm is coming so my worries are increasing.

https://en.climate-data.org/location/3183/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:34 am

Poof.
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