ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1 Postby NotSparta » Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:12 pm

AL 99 2017092818 01 CARQ 0 233N 796W 20 1012 DB
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L - Invest - Discussion

#2 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:18 pm

From the previous thread about the NW Caribbean, here are my thoughts on this system's chances of producing TS winds:

I think there's a very good chance that there will be easterly winds to 40-45 mph north of the low center (out over the water) on Saturday. The low will be near Cape Canaveral by Saturday morning. This type of system (more subtropical than tropical) will not bring such winds inland, but they could impact the beaches. The strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. to its north will provide the gradient. Little significant wind south of the low. Inland winds maybe 15-25 mph. Strong shear may rip it apart as it crosses Florida on Sunday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:41 pm

I'm not even sure where exactly 99l is?
There are remnants from the cut off trough producing an arc of convection a little further west in the Gulf and still come energy in the western Caribbean that has been migrating WNW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:44 pm

Nimbus wrote:I'm not even sure where exactly 99l is?


Image

Thanks to our wxman57 for this image.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#5 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:45 pm

Nimbus wrote:I'm not even sure where exactly 99l is?
There are remnants from the cut off trough producing an arc of convection a little further west in the Gulf and still come energy in the western Caribbean that has been migrating WNW.


The primary vorticity is in the red circle, below (an updated image from my earlier post).

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L - Invest - Discussion

#6 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:From the previous thread about the NW Caribbean, here are my thoughts on this system's chances of producing TS winds:

I think there's a very good chance that there will be easterly winds to 40-45 mph north of the low center (out over the water) on Saturday. The low will be near Cape Canaveral by Saturday morning. This type of system (more subtropical than tropical) will not bring such winds inland, but they could impact the beaches. The strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. to its north will provide the gradient. Little significant wind south of the low. Inland winds maybe 15-25 mph. Strong shear may rip it apart as it crosses Florida on Sunday.


Wxman57, that is pretty good analysis, about what I am anticipating up here in the Northeast Florida coastal region Sunday into Sunday evening. 99L is modeled on the 12Z GFS run today being as a 1007 mb system coming onshore around St. Augustine on Sunday evening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#7 Postby JBCycloneStan » Thu Sep 28, 2017 3:27 pm

This may not have conditions for really favorable development until it crosses over Florida. All eyes should be on the Gulf when that happens, though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#8 Postby psyclone » Thu Sep 28, 2017 3:32 pm

Hopefully this will be a harmless system that brings showery, breezy weather and helps break the heat. we're over 100 days of 90 degree temps this season in Tampa (again) this Summer and I'm ready.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#9 Postby JKingTampa » Thu Sep 28, 2017 3:54 pm

psyclone wrote:Hopefully this will be a harmless system that brings showery, breezy weather and helps break the heat. we're over 100 days of 90 degree temps this season in Tampa (again) this Summer and I'm ready.


I second that, working 6-7 days a week, indoors or out...by the time I'm off work I'm just wanting to be at my AC. This year has been ridiculous.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#10 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 28, 2017 3:56 pm

From NWS KCHS:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING THIS LOW PRESSURE A MODERATE
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A SUB-TROPICAL OR EVEN TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, WHETHER THIS SYSTEM DOES SO OR NOT IT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH.
THUS, WE EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA
WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS.


From NWS KJAX:
THE MAIN THING TO KEEP IN MIND, REGARDLESS OF WHAT WE DESIGNATE
THE POSSIBLE LOW OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND, IS THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE
SAME IF IT HAS A NAME OR NOT.
WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS IN OUR ESTUARY SYSTEM, INCLUDING THE ST
JOHNS RIVER, AND THE PRIMARY ASTRONOMICAL TIDE EACH DAY IS GOING
TO BE AT OR ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW) FOR THE NEXT WEEK
PEAKING ABOUT OCTOBER 10-12TH ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT. WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LOOKING FOR
THE PRIMARY HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
WELL TO BE AT 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MHHW WITH HIGH SURF ON TOP OF
THAT. THOSE LEVELS ARE WITHIN MINOR AND VERY CLOSE TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING DEPENDING UPON THE LOCATION.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#11 Postby rickybobby » Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:07 pm

Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:09 pm

rickybobby wrote:Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.


A weak TS shouldn't keep people at home unless you live on the immediate coast, since it is unlikely 40 mph sustained winds would penetrate far inland in that case.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#13 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:11 pm

rickybobby wrote:Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.
haha, nice try but this doesnt look like anything close to getting days off...study up
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#14 Postby rickybobby » Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
rickybobby wrote:Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.


A weak TS shouldn't keep people at home unless you live on the immediate coast, since it is unlikely 40 mph sustained winds would penetrate far inland in that case.


In Florida they close bridges once winds hit 39.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#15 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:40 pm

The trend on the last 3 GFS runs has been toward a slightly weaker low fwiw.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:43 pm

rickybobby wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
rickybobby wrote:Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.


A weak TS shouldn't keep people at home unless you live on the immediate coast, since it is unlikely 40 mph sustained winds would penetrate far inland in that case.


In Florida they close bridges once winds hit 39.


That would be only on the immediate coast though (and I agree with that limit - I use 40 mph during the day and 35 mph at night as the point to shelter in place).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#17 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:00 pm

If this manage to develop, i had to say that this reminds me of Julia in the previous year...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#18 Postby joey » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:17 pm

So we looking at maybe 20 moh winds from this 99 ty
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:25 pm

joey wrote:So we looking at maybe 20 moh winds from this 99 ty



If it remains off shore and slides up the coast it could become a tropical storm...Tammy 2005?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#20 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:44 pm

nhc dont see doing any thing when get close to fl look shear high round fl
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