ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Appears to be some type of circulation just north of Key West.

[BYG Jacob]

However, this is also Invest 99L, which either doesn't form or takes two weeks to do so

If it does watch out for major hurricane Nate

How do you figure????

Favorable conditions, especially if it goes west, and because that's just how this hurricane season has gone.

[northjaxpro]

Appears to be some type of circulation just north of Key West.
]

Yelp!! Great catch and observation Panama.

Yeah. It looks as if 99L will form on the Gulf side of the peninsula.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at surface obs and visible... appears to be a circ overland roughly just NW of miami. moving slowly ne or nne .. but like with every system like this. if convection builds offshore any weak circ overland would likely reform.

[northjaxpro]

So moving inland over the Everglades it appears Aric pretty much atm.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: So moving inland over the Everglades it appears Aric pretry much atm.

that general area ( some of those obs may be a littel old) .. though on satellite it is clearly closer to the east coast. as you can see the SSW flow just of the SE coast of FL..
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

[Aric Dunn]

roughly here.. but again. where the convection goes the circ will go.. and offshore seems likely once ( or if) deeper convection builds.

[BYG Jacob]

roughly here.. but again. where the convection goes the circ will go.. and offshore seems likely once deeper convection build.

That looks like two different circulations with one over the peninsula and one just west of Key West IMO

[Aric Dunn]

roughly here.. but again. where the convection goes the circ will go.. and offshore seems likely once deeper convection build.

That looks like two different circulations with one over the peninsula and one just west of Key West IMO

the apparent circ west of key west is not near the surface more in the mid levels at the moment.

though I do enjoy the 12z GFS.. develops both the circulations.. one from the mid level and the other from the surface .. that would be weird..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=374

[joey]

could that red blob just south of w cuba be part of 99l looks to be heading nne thanks

[BYG Jacob]

roughly here.. but again. where the convection goes the circ will go.. and offshore seems likely once deeper convection build.

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That looks like two different circulations with one over the peninsula and one just west of Key West IMO

the apparent circ west of key west is not near the surface more in the mid levels at the moment.

though I do enjoy the 12z GFS.. develops both the circulations.. one from the mid level and the other from the surface .. that would be weird..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=374

It would be weird, if anything I'd think that the LLC would get sucked under the MLC given that that center has some convection around it, but this is 2017, and it certainly is possible. Though if both do form they would probably shear each other.

[tropicwatch]

850mb vorticity is increasing in the area.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at radar.. the circ is moving just west of boynton/ west palm.. convection building near it.. but over land.

[BYG Jacob]

Looking at radar.. the circ is moving just west of boynton/ west palm.. convection building near it.. but over land.

Fey 2008 repeat?

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at radar.. the circ is moving just west of boynton/ west palm.. convection building near it.. but over land.

Fey 2008 repeat?

noo.. just convection from the land heating up.

[BYG Jacob]

Looking at radar.. the circ is moving just west of boynton/ west palm.. convection building near it.. but over land.

Fey 2008 repeat?

noo.. just convection from the land heating up.

Maybe, its a little hard to tell right now.

[Aric Dunn]

actual genesis will likely happen somewhere off melbourne/cape Canaveral overnight as the vorticity "wraps" up into the east to west boundary up around melbourne. though classification likely won't happen until late tomorrow assuming it gets far enough offshore...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[BYG Jacob]

could that red blob just south of w cuba be part of 99l looks to be heading nne thanks

I don't believe it is actually, that's separate. Might be worthy of an invest designation at least given its current structure.

[BYG Jacob]

actual genesis will likely happen somewhere off melbourne/cape Canaveral overnight as the vorticity "wraps" up into the east to west boundary up around melbourne. though classification likely won't happen until late tomorrow assuming it gets far enough offshore...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Yup, these take time to spin up.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at long range our of key west and satellite.. I would not be surprised to see a seperate circ develop SW or west of key west already showing some curvature. I guess a separate thread should be started for in Talkin Tropics soon..